If you're looking for a place to symbolize Barack Obama's dropping poll numbers Vermont might not exactly be the first that comes to mind. And Obama certainly doesn't need to worry about losing the state next year. But his numbers there are considerably weaker than in 2008, reflecting the general bad trend we're seeing for him pretty much everywhere right now.
Obama defeated John McCain by 37 points, 68-31. Now he leads Mitt Romney in the state by only a 20 point margin, 54-34. Suffice it to say if Obama saw a 17 point drop in his margin versus John McCain nationally, as he is in Vermont, he would get blown out in his reelection bid next year.
Obama does worse than he did last time around against the whole rest of the Republican roster of candidates as well, even Sarah Palin. Michele Bachmann does 9 points better than McCain did, trailing by 28 points at 58-30. Rick Perry improves on the McCain margin by 8, trailing by 29 points at 57-28. Herman Cain outperforms McCain by 5, down 32 to Obama at 58-26. And Palin fares 3 points better than McCain, trailing Obama by 34 at 62-28.
Vermont is not going to be a consequential state in the 2012 Presidential race, or maybe any Presidential race ever. But the numbers there are indicative of the extent to which Obama's down everywhere. His approval in the state is 53%, with 40% of voters disapproving. Those are pretty weak numbers in a place where he won with 68% of the vote.
Full results here
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Obama, GOP candidates all unpopular
Ohio's a pretty good microcosm for an unhappy nation right now.
Barack Obama's approval rating in the state right now is 44%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. His numbers with independents are horrid at 34/59. And there's a whole lot more Democrats (16%) who disapprove of him than there are Republicans (just 4%) who like him.
So with those numbers Obama must be doomed in one of the country's most important swing states, right? Wrong. Obama leads the entire Republican field in Ohio.
How can that be? Well Obama's pretty unpopular. But consider these favorability numbers for the Republican alternatives: Mitt Romney, 30% favorable/49% unfavorable, Rick Perry, 28% favorable/37% unfavorable, Michele Bachmann, 30% favorable/49% unfavorable, Sarah Palin, 34% favorable/59% unfavorable, and Herman Cain, 22% favorable/35% unfavorable.
Obama's net approval is a -8 spread. Every Republican's net favorability is even worse than that. Ohio voters don't like Obama. They like the GOP Presidential field even less. So at least for now Obama's up 2 points on Romney at 45-43, 4 points on Perry at 45-41, 7 points on Bachmann at 48-41, 8 points on Cain at 47-39, and 13 points on Palin at 51-38.
In all of these match ups there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats so at least the Romney and Perry match ups with Obama are sheer toss ups. But it's still kind of amazing the President's holding up as well as he is with these approval numbers.
Like Obama, all of the Republican candidates get negative assessments from independents. And also like Obama they're all more unpopular across party lines than they are well liked within their own parties. Voters in Ohio aren't real impressed with any politicians right now and it shows in these numbers. Bottom line- Ohio looks like it will have the same closely contested Presidential contest next year that it's had regularly over the last few election cycles.
Full results here
Barack Obama's approval rating in the state right now is 44%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. His numbers with independents are horrid at 34/59. And there's a whole lot more Democrats (16%) who disapprove of him than there are Republicans (just 4%) who like him.
So with those numbers Obama must be doomed in one of the country's most important swing states, right? Wrong. Obama leads the entire Republican field in Ohio.
How can that be? Well Obama's pretty unpopular. But consider these favorability numbers for the Republican alternatives: Mitt Romney, 30% favorable/49% unfavorable, Rick Perry, 28% favorable/37% unfavorable, Michele Bachmann, 30% favorable/49% unfavorable, Sarah Palin, 34% favorable/59% unfavorable, and Herman Cain, 22% favorable/35% unfavorable.
Obama's net approval is a -8 spread. Every Republican's net favorability is even worse than that. Ohio voters don't like Obama. They like the GOP Presidential field even less. So at least for now Obama's up 2 points on Romney at 45-43, 4 points on Perry at 45-41, 7 points on Bachmann at 48-41, 8 points on Cain at 47-39, and 13 points on Palin at 51-38.
In all of these match ups there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats so at least the Romney and Perry match ups with Obama are sheer toss ups. But it's still kind of amazing the President's holding up as well as he is with these approval numbers.
Like Obama, all of the Republican candidates get negative assessments from independents. And also like Obama they're all more unpopular across party lines than they are well liked within their own parties. Voters in Ohio aren't real impressed with any politicians right now and it shows in these numbers. Bottom line- Ohio looks like it will have the same closely contested Presidential contest next year that it's had regularly over the last few election cycles.
Full results here
Sentiment moving against Walker recall
Public sentiment in Wisconsin is moving against a recall of Scott Walker. Walker though remains very unpopular and if Russ Feingold chose to run against him in a recall election he would find himself in deep trouble.
50% of Wisconsin voters generally oppose a recall of Walker, compared to 47% in favor. Those numbers are flipped from our last statewide poll, in May, which found 50% generally in support of a recall and 47% in opposition. The overall switch comes because independents have moved from slightly in favor of removing Walker from office (50/47) to slightly opposed (46/50) and because 94% of Republicans now oppose recalling Walker, up from 89% on the last poll.
It's not that Walker has become popular all the sudden. His approval rating is still a pretty bad 45/53. Independents disapprove of him by a 44/53 margin. Democrats are more unified in their dislike of him (93%) than Republicans are in their support (87%). But I think there's a certain segment of voters in Wisconsin- somewhere around 10% of the population- that is generally opposed to the concept of recalls regardless of how they feel about how things are going in the state. We've seen that in the State Senate recalls so far- the polls have universally moved in the closing days in favor of the incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. When folks get off the fence they're tending to vote anti-recall.
For all that Walker could still be in pretty big trouble though. Russ Feingold would lead him 52-45 in a recall at this stage, taking independents by a 53-43 margin. Despite his defeat last year in an election marked by very low Democratic turnout, Feingold remains decently popular in the state with a 49/43 favorability rating.
Democrats may be dependent on a Feingold candidacy to win though. In May Tom Barrett led Walker 50-43 in a hypothetical rematch of their contest last fall, but now Barrett's advantage is only 48-47. Given the way sentiment has moved against recall in the closing days of these elections I don't think Barrett would beat Walker if he started with only a one point lead. And Walker already has the advantage over two other Democrats that have been mentioned as potential candidates- 47-44 over former Congressman David Obey and 46-43 over sitting Congressman Ron Kind.
A Walker recall is certainly doable, but it's not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination regardless of his continued poor polling numbers.
Nationally both Democrats and Republicans claimed victory in last week's recall elections: Republicans because they maintained control of the State Senate and Democrats because they picked up two seats they hadn't been able to win even in the wave election of 2008. When it comes to Wisconsin voters though there's a more stark contrast in reactions. Republicans are pleased with the results by a 73/13 margin. Democrats are unhappy with the results by a 17/64 spread. Clearly for Democratic voters in the state it was a majority or bust.
Full results here
50% of Wisconsin voters generally oppose a recall of Walker, compared to 47% in favor. Those numbers are flipped from our last statewide poll, in May, which found 50% generally in support of a recall and 47% in opposition. The overall switch comes because independents have moved from slightly in favor of removing Walker from office (50/47) to slightly opposed (46/50) and because 94% of Republicans now oppose recalling Walker, up from 89% on the last poll.
It's not that Walker has become popular all the sudden. His approval rating is still a pretty bad 45/53. Independents disapprove of him by a 44/53 margin. Democrats are more unified in their dislike of him (93%) than Republicans are in their support (87%). But I think there's a certain segment of voters in Wisconsin- somewhere around 10% of the population- that is generally opposed to the concept of recalls regardless of how they feel about how things are going in the state. We've seen that in the State Senate recalls so far- the polls have universally moved in the closing days in favor of the incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. When folks get off the fence they're tending to vote anti-recall.
For all that Walker could still be in pretty big trouble though. Russ Feingold would lead him 52-45 in a recall at this stage, taking independents by a 53-43 margin. Despite his defeat last year in an election marked by very low Democratic turnout, Feingold remains decently popular in the state with a 49/43 favorability rating.
Democrats may be dependent on a Feingold candidacy to win though. In May Tom Barrett led Walker 50-43 in a hypothetical rematch of their contest last fall, but now Barrett's advantage is only 48-47. Given the way sentiment has moved against recall in the closing days of these elections I don't think Barrett would beat Walker if he started with only a one point lead. And Walker already has the advantage over two other Democrats that have been mentioned as potential candidates- 47-44 over former Congressman David Obey and 46-43 over sitting Congressman Ron Kind.
A Walker recall is certainly doable, but it's not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination regardless of his continued poor polling numbers.
Nationally both Democrats and Republicans claimed victory in last week's recall elections: Republicans because they maintained control of the State Senate and Democrats because they picked up two seats they hadn't been able to win even in the wave election of 2008. When it comes to Wisconsin voters though there's a more stark contrast in reactions. Republicans are pleased with the results by a 73/13 margin. Democrats are unhappy with the results by a 17/64 spread. Clearly for Democratic voters in the state it was a majority or bust.
Full results here
Monday, August 15, 2011
Perry tied in NC, CO
Rick Perry's only been in the Presidential race for two days but based on our most recent round of state polling he's already close to deserving co-front runner status. We found him tied for the lead last week among Republican voters in both Colorado and North Carolina, two very different states and also two that are a long way from Texas.
In North Carolina Perry's in a three way tie with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Each is getting 17%. Herman Cain at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 10% round out the candidates in double digits and Michele Bachmann at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 2% (the poll was conducted before he dropped out), and Jon Huntsman at 1% represent the rest of the field.
Perry also led a PPP poll conducted in Virginia two weeks ago. It's clear he's going to be an extremely formidable candidate in the South and I'd expect that the next time we poll South Carolina he's either going to be in the lead or awfully close to it.
Perry's strength in Colorado might be more of a surprise. There he and Romney each get 20%, followed by Bachmann at 12%, Palin at 11%, Paul at 8%, Cain at 7%, Gingrich at 6%, Pawlenty at 3%, and Huntsman at 2%.
In both states Bachmann gains a lot of ground if you take Palin out of the picture. In North Carolina she and Perry tie at 17% with Romney at 16% and Paul and Gingrich at 11%. In Colorado she goes up to 15% with Romney at 22% and Perry at 21% leading the way.
We will also show Perry doing very well in Ohio and Wisconsin Republican polling that will be released later this week.
Full results here
In North Carolina Perry's in a three way tie with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Each is getting 17%. Herman Cain at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 10% round out the candidates in double digits and Michele Bachmann at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 2% (the poll was conducted before he dropped out), and Jon Huntsman at 1% represent the rest of the field.
Perry also led a PPP poll conducted in Virginia two weeks ago. It's clear he's going to be an extremely formidable candidate in the South and I'd expect that the next time we poll South Carolina he's either going to be in the lead or awfully close to it.
Perry's strength in Colorado might be more of a surprise. There he and Romney each get 20%, followed by Bachmann at 12%, Palin at 11%, Paul at 8%, Cain at 7%, Gingrich at 6%, Pawlenty at 3%, and Huntsman at 2%.
In both states Bachmann gains a lot of ground if you take Palin out of the picture. In North Carolina she and Perry tie at 17% with Romney at 16% and Paul and Gingrich at 11%. In Colorado she goes up to 15% with Romney at 22% and Perry at 21% leading the way.
We will also show Perry doing very well in Ohio and Wisconsin Republican polling that will be released later this week.
Full results here
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Colorado Miscellaneous
-John Hickenlooper is proving to be one of the most popular Governors in the country. 54% of voters approve of him to only 24% who disapprove. That +30 net approval spread makes him the third most popular sitting Governor out of 42 PPP has polled on, putting him behind only Nebraska's Dave Heineman and Arkansas' Mike Beebe.
Hickenlooper's very popular with Democrats at 73/11, that's a given. And his strong numbers with independents at 49/29 are no surprise either. What sets him apart from most other Governors is that he nearly breaks even across party lines, with 34% of Republicans approving of him and only 37% disapproving. It's very unusual to see that in these highly polarized political times.
If- and it's a big if just 7 months into office- Hickenlooper can keep up these sorts of numbers he seems bound to be in the 2016 discussion either as a Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate. Not a lot of purple state Governors with this kind of popularity.
-Hickenlooper's always been popular. New to the popularity game is Michael Bennet, who 44% of voters now give good marks to compared to 36% who think he's doing a bad job. Bennet's mostly had bad approval numbers since being appointed in 2009. Even right before he got reelected last year we found him with only a 39% approval rating while 47% of voters disapproved of him. But folks seem to have warmed up to him since he won the full term.
One person they haven't warmed up to is his 2010 opponent, Ken Buck. Only 25% of voters now express a favorable opinion of Buck to 46% with an unfavorable one. And in a hypothetical rematch voters say they would pick Bennet by a 55-38 margin over Buck, quite a contrast from his razor thin margin of victory last fall. Those numbers would seem to suggest increasing trepidation from Colorado voters about a Tea Party candidate, speaking of which...
-Only 38% of voters in Colorado now have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party to 49% who see it unfavorably. It's predictable that Republicans (74/10) pretty universally have a positive opinion of it while Democrats (11/79) pretty universally have a negative opinion of it. What tips the scales is that it's quite unpopular with independents, a majority of whom (51%) don't care for the movement to 36% who see it favorably.
Running as a Tea Party candidate isn't going to be a very good idea for Republicans in Colorado next year, at least when it comes to the general election.
-Colorado voters will be deciding in November whether to enact a slight increase in the sales and income taxes to provide more money for education and right now they're very closely divided on the proposal. 45% of voters say they're inclined to support it while 47% are opposed. Independents support it by a 48/44 margin and usually that would make the difference but Republicans (21/73) are more unified in their opposition to the proposal than Democrats are in their support (63/29). Convincing more Democrats to be supportive may be the key to its passage.
-Looking toward 2012 Colorado voters may have the chance to vote on whether to legalize marijuana and for now a majority of voters are in support of that- 51% compared to 38% opposed to legalization. Independents are strongly in favor of this proposal (55/31) and there are actually more Republicans in support of it (31%) than there are Democrats opposed (24%).
These are encouraging numbers for legalization proponents but it's important to remember that California's proposal for legalizing marijuana last year polled pretty well until completely collapsing in the final month before the election. There's a long road ahead.
-Colorado voters are evenly divided on allowed gay couples to marry, but when civil unions are given as an option they're strongly supportive of extending some form of legal recognition to same sex couples. 45% of voters support gay marriage to 45% opposed. Independents are strongly in favor (54/33) but like on the tax issue Republicans are more strongly against it (73%) than Democrats are in support (64%). Still these numbers are indicative of the fast moving shift in public opinion on gay marriage. Just 5 years ago Colorado voters supported a constitutional amendment to define marriage as being between a man and a woman by a 56/44 margin.
With civil unions in the mix 71% of voters support some legal recognition for gay couples to only 27% completely opposed. Of that 71%, 40% say full marriage rights are their first choice with another 31% saying civil unions would be their preference. 76% of independents and even 57% of Republicans support extending more right to same sex couples.
-Quick hits: Mark Udall's approval rating is 45/34, solid numbers. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 45/40, reflecting what we're seeing in our polls nationally. The passage of time is not helping resurrect Scott McInnis' image, with only 14% of voters rating him favorably to 31% with a negative opinion. Tom Tancredo's unpopular as well with a 30% positive rating and 43% of voters rating him unfavorably. Most surprising thing in those numbers is the 26% with no opinion- how can you be ambivalent on Tom Tancredo? And 32% of voters think prostitution should be legal to 56% illegal. We were prompted to ask that question after surprisingly finding that Democrats, Republicans, and independents in Nevada all thought that it should be legal. But we found the opposite in Colorado with voters across party lines all thinking that it should be illegal. Nevada's an island unto itself, at least on that front.
Full results here
Hickenlooper's very popular with Democrats at 73/11, that's a given. And his strong numbers with independents at 49/29 are no surprise either. What sets him apart from most other Governors is that he nearly breaks even across party lines, with 34% of Republicans approving of him and only 37% disapproving. It's very unusual to see that in these highly polarized political times.
If- and it's a big if just 7 months into office- Hickenlooper can keep up these sorts of numbers he seems bound to be in the 2016 discussion either as a Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate. Not a lot of purple state Governors with this kind of popularity.
-Hickenlooper's always been popular. New to the popularity game is Michael Bennet, who 44% of voters now give good marks to compared to 36% who think he's doing a bad job. Bennet's mostly had bad approval numbers since being appointed in 2009. Even right before he got reelected last year we found him with only a 39% approval rating while 47% of voters disapproved of him. But folks seem to have warmed up to him since he won the full term.
One person they haven't warmed up to is his 2010 opponent, Ken Buck. Only 25% of voters now express a favorable opinion of Buck to 46% with an unfavorable one. And in a hypothetical rematch voters say they would pick Bennet by a 55-38 margin over Buck, quite a contrast from his razor thin margin of victory last fall. Those numbers would seem to suggest increasing trepidation from Colorado voters about a Tea Party candidate, speaking of which...
-Only 38% of voters in Colorado now have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party to 49% who see it unfavorably. It's predictable that Republicans (74/10) pretty universally have a positive opinion of it while Democrats (11/79) pretty universally have a negative opinion of it. What tips the scales is that it's quite unpopular with independents, a majority of whom (51%) don't care for the movement to 36% who see it favorably.
Running as a Tea Party candidate isn't going to be a very good idea for Republicans in Colorado next year, at least when it comes to the general election.
-Colorado voters will be deciding in November whether to enact a slight increase in the sales and income taxes to provide more money for education and right now they're very closely divided on the proposal. 45% of voters say they're inclined to support it while 47% are opposed. Independents support it by a 48/44 margin and usually that would make the difference but Republicans (21/73) are more unified in their opposition to the proposal than Democrats are in their support (63/29). Convincing more Democrats to be supportive may be the key to its passage.
-Looking toward 2012 Colorado voters may have the chance to vote on whether to legalize marijuana and for now a majority of voters are in support of that- 51% compared to 38% opposed to legalization. Independents are strongly in favor of this proposal (55/31) and there are actually more Republicans in support of it (31%) than there are Democrats opposed (24%).
These are encouraging numbers for legalization proponents but it's important to remember that California's proposal for legalizing marijuana last year polled pretty well until completely collapsing in the final month before the election. There's a long road ahead.
-Colorado voters are evenly divided on allowed gay couples to marry, but when civil unions are given as an option they're strongly supportive of extending some form of legal recognition to same sex couples. 45% of voters support gay marriage to 45% opposed. Independents are strongly in favor (54/33) but like on the tax issue Republicans are more strongly against it (73%) than Democrats are in support (64%). Still these numbers are indicative of the fast moving shift in public opinion on gay marriage. Just 5 years ago Colorado voters supported a constitutional amendment to define marriage as being between a man and a woman by a 56/44 margin.
With civil unions in the mix 71% of voters support some legal recognition for gay couples to only 27% completely opposed. Of that 71%, 40% say full marriage rights are their first choice with another 31% saying civil unions would be their preference. 76% of independents and even 57% of Republicans support extending more right to same sex couples.
-Quick hits: Mark Udall's approval rating is 45/34, solid numbers. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 45/40, reflecting what we're seeing in our polls nationally. The passage of time is not helping resurrect Scott McInnis' image, with only 14% of voters rating him favorably to 31% with a negative opinion. Tom Tancredo's unpopular as well with a 30% positive rating and 43% of voters rating him unfavorably. Most surprising thing in those numbers is the 26% with no opinion- how can you be ambivalent on Tom Tancredo? And 32% of voters think prostitution should be legal to 56% illegal. We were prompted to ask that question after surprisingly finding that Democrats, Republicans, and independents in Nevada all thought that it should be legal. But we found the opposite in Colorado with voters across party lines all thinking that it should be illegal. Nevada's an island unto itself, at least on that front.
Full results here
Obama up in North Carolina
Our newest North Carolina Presidential poll falls into what's becoming a familiar pattern as we take the pulse of swing states across the country: Mitt Romney would be in a toss up with Barack Obama right now, while Obama holds healthy leads over the rest of the Republican field.
Obama leads Romney by 3 points in the state, 46-43. However most of the undecided voters are GOP leaning so it's probably best to think of that match up as a tie. The numbers are an improvement for Obama compared to a month ago when he and Romney were dead even. We've seen a general improvement in Obama's numbers as opposed to the Republican alternatives in the wake of the debt deal. My take on the fallout from that based on the polling we've done is that it hurt Obama's image a little bit but it probably hurt the GOP's image even more.
Obama's 3 point lead over Romney underscores another emerging reality: North Carolina is likely to play a much more important role in the Presidential race next year than it has in years. Obama's doing better against Romney here than in more quintessential swing states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada and the numbers are very comparable to places like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.
North Carolina was extremely competitive in 2008 but it was the cherry on top for Obama- he really didn't need it. With his numbers holding up better now in the state than in other places that he won by much wider margins last time around, North Carolina is a good deal more likely to be one of the states key to getting him to 270 electoral votes. It's quite a remarkable shift from 2004 when Democrats basically gave up on the state in September.
Against the rest of the GOP field Obama has pretty healthy leads- it's 8 points over Rick Perry at 48-40, 10 over Michele Bachmann at 50-40, and 13 over both Herman Cain and Sarah Palin at 50-37 and 52-39. There are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of those match ups so the final results would probably be closer if voters really had to cast their ballots today but the margins are wide enough it's pretty safe to say that he would beat any of those four at this point in time.
Obama's approval rating is 46%, with 50% of voters disapproving of him. That's up a tick from a 45/51 spread on last month's poll but below where he's been throughout most of the year. The main thing dragging him down is that only 38% of independents are happy with the job he's doing to 56% who disapprove. It's also worth noting that in metro Charlotte, where the Democratic convention will be held next year, his approval numbers break down at a pretty poor 41/56 spread.
It looks like North Carolina's battleground days are here to stay.
Full results here
Obama leads Romney by 3 points in the state, 46-43. However most of the undecided voters are GOP leaning so it's probably best to think of that match up as a tie. The numbers are an improvement for Obama compared to a month ago when he and Romney were dead even. We've seen a general improvement in Obama's numbers as opposed to the Republican alternatives in the wake of the debt deal. My take on the fallout from that based on the polling we've done is that it hurt Obama's image a little bit but it probably hurt the GOP's image even more.
Obama's 3 point lead over Romney underscores another emerging reality: North Carolina is likely to play a much more important role in the Presidential race next year than it has in years. Obama's doing better against Romney here than in more quintessential swing states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada and the numbers are very comparable to places like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.
North Carolina was extremely competitive in 2008 but it was the cherry on top for Obama- he really didn't need it. With his numbers holding up better now in the state than in other places that he won by much wider margins last time around, North Carolina is a good deal more likely to be one of the states key to getting him to 270 electoral votes. It's quite a remarkable shift from 2004 when Democrats basically gave up on the state in September.
Against the rest of the GOP field Obama has pretty healthy leads- it's 8 points over Rick Perry at 48-40, 10 over Michele Bachmann at 50-40, and 13 over both Herman Cain and Sarah Palin at 50-37 and 52-39. There are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of those match ups so the final results would probably be closer if voters really had to cast their ballots today but the margins are wide enough it's pretty safe to say that he would beat any of those four at this point in time.
Obama's approval rating is 46%, with 50% of voters disapproving of him. That's up a tick from a 45/51 spread on last month's poll but below where he's been throughout most of the year. The main thing dragging him down is that only 38% of independents are happy with the job he's doing to 56% who disapprove. It's also worth noting that in metro Charlotte, where the Democratic convention will be held next year, his approval numbers break down at a pretty poor 41/56 spread.
It looks like North Carolina's battleground days are here to stay.
Full results here
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Ohio and Wisconsin Question Suggestion Thread
Ohio and Wisconsin won our vote on where to poll this week.
In Ohio we'll obviously test Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin against Sherrod Brown. Anyone else?
We'll do some Jim Tressel related questions of Ohio State fans- anything in particular you think we should ask?
Obviously we'll do the standard Presidential stuff we do in every state and any other suggestions you might have would be much appreciated as well.
In Wisconsin I think it's a given we'll test Russ Feingold, Tammy Baldwin, Ron Kind, and Steve Kagen against Tommy Thompson and Mark Neumann. Anyone else we need to throw into those Senate general election match ups?
We'll test Feingold and Tom Barrett against Scott Walker in a potential recall election. Any other Dems we should throw in that hat?
As with Ohio we'll do the standard rate Presidential stuff but if you have any other good Wisconsin question ideas please let us know as well.
Thanks as always for the great suggestions!
In Ohio we'll obviously test Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin against Sherrod Brown. Anyone else?
We'll do some Jim Tressel related questions of Ohio State fans- anything in particular you think we should ask?
Obviously we'll do the standard Presidential stuff we do in every state and any other suggestions you might have would be much appreciated as well.
In Wisconsin I think it's a given we'll test Russ Feingold, Tammy Baldwin, Ron Kind, and Steve Kagen against Tommy Thompson and Mark Neumann. Anyone else we need to throw into those Senate general election match ups?
We'll test Feingold and Tom Barrett against Scott Walker in a potential recall election. Any other Dems we should throw in that hat?
As with Ohio we'll do the standard rate Presidential stuff but if you have any other good Wisconsin question ideas please let us know as well.
Thanks as always for the great suggestions!
Michigan Miscellaneous
-Michigan voters are opposed to gay marriage but when you add civil unions to the mix a majority of people in the state support form of legal recognition for same sex couples.
Only 33% think gay marriage should be legal compared to 53% who think it should continue to be illegal. Democrats narrowly support it (48/36), while independents are narrowly opposed (36/50). Tipping the scales is near unanimous opposition among Republicans, 10/78.
Asked whether they support gay marriage, civil unions, or no recognition for gay couples though 62% express favor for granting more rights with 29% saying their choice is full marriage rights and an additional 33% preferring civil unions. 35% oppose giving gay couples any rights.
This is becoming a theme in our polling- voters are willing to give gay couples the legal rights associated with marriage but they're not willing to put the term 'marriage' on it. It seems to be a semantic issue more than anything else.
-Kwame Kilpatrick may be out of jail but he's not getting a free pass in the court of public opinion. Only 4% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 77% with a negative one. That makes him the second most unpopular person PPP has ever polled on, putting him behind only former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich who we found a -75 spread (8/83) for last year. Kilpatrick's numbers make him more unpopular than folks like John Edwards in North Carolina, Levi Johnston in Alaska, and Charlie Sheen nationally who also rank among the least appealing folks we've looked at.
The current occupant of the Mayor's chair in Detroit, Dave Bing, is viewed positively by voters around the state. 36% have a favorable opinion of him to 15% with an unfavorable one, and 49% have no opinion. He's popular across party lines with Democrats (31/21), Republicans (37/9), and independents (42/11) all giving him good marks.
We looked at former Detroit mayors Dennis Archer and the late Coleman Young as well. Archer has Bing-like polling numbers with 36% of voters seeing him positively and 16% unfavorably. Like Bing, Archer is well respected across the line with Democrats (37/20), Republicans (32/12), and independents (38/14) all seeing him in a good light.
Young has more Kilpatrick-like poll numbers, even more than 13 years after his death. Only 17% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. He's reviled by Republicans (6/62) and independents (7/57), while Democrats pretty much split evenly on him (32/33).
There are two clear and very different categories the last 38 years of Detroit mayors fall into when it comes to how they're seen across the state.
-Absence apparently does not make the heart grow fonder, at least when it comes to the image of recently departed Governor Jennifer Granholm. She continues to be a pretty unpopular figure in the state with only 39% of voters saying they like her while 54% view her in a dim light. Those numbers are almost identical to the ones Rick Snyder's getting for his job performance right now- serving as Governor of Michigan is not the job you want right now if you hope for people to like you.
-Voters must not be very happy with the Michigan House of Representatives back in Republican control, because they say if they could vote today they'd support Democrats for the legislature by a 47-36 margin. A lot of Democratic voters jumped ship last year but now 94% say they would support their party's candidates if the election was today, compared to only 88% of GOP voters committed to their party. Republicans do lead by a 6 point margin with independents but that represents a significant shift from the blow out advantages GOP candidates tended to have with them in the state last year. Democrats would probably retake control of the House if they won the popular vote by this much next November.
Full results here
Only 33% think gay marriage should be legal compared to 53% who think it should continue to be illegal. Democrats narrowly support it (48/36), while independents are narrowly opposed (36/50). Tipping the scales is near unanimous opposition among Republicans, 10/78.
Asked whether they support gay marriage, civil unions, or no recognition for gay couples though 62% express favor for granting more rights with 29% saying their choice is full marriage rights and an additional 33% preferring civil unions. 35% oppose giving gay couples any rights.
This is becoming a theme in our polling- voters are willing to give gay couples the legal rights associated with marriage but they're not willing to put the term 'marriage' on it. It seems to be a semantic issue more than anything else.
-Kwame Kilpatrick may be out of jail but he's not getting a free pass in the court of public opinion. Only 4% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 77% with a negative one. That makes him the second most unpopular person PPP has ever polled on, putting him behind only former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich who we found a -75 spread (8/83) for last year. Kilpatrick's numbers make him more unpopular than folks like John Edwards in North Carolina, Levi Johnston in Alaska, and Charlie Sheen nationally who also rank among the least appealing folks we've looked at.
The current occupant of the Mayor's chair in Detroit, Dave Bing, is viewed positively by voters around the state. 36% have a favorable opinion of him to 15% with an unfavorable one, and 49% have no opinion. He's popular across party lines with Democrats (31/21), Republicans (37/9), and independents (42/11) all giving him good marks.
We looked at former Detroit mayors Dennis Archer and the late Coleman Young as well. Archer has Bing-like polling numbers with 36% of voters seeing him positively and 16% unfavorably. Like Bing, Archer is well respected across the line with Democrats (37/20), Republicans (32/12), and independents (38/14) all seeing him in a good light.
Young has more Kilpatrick-like poll numbers, even more than 13 years after his death. Only 17% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. He's reviled by Republicans (6/62) and independents (7/57), while Democrats pretty much split evenly on him (32/33).
There are two clear and very different categories the last 38 years of Detroit mayors fall into when it comes to how they're seen across the state.
-Absence apparently does not make the heart grow fonder, at least when it comes to the image of recently departed Governor Jennifer Granholm. She continues to be a pretty unpopular figure in the state with only 39% of voters saying they like her while 54% view her in a dim light. Those numbers are almost identical to the ones Rick Snyder's getting for his job performance right now- serving as Governor of Michigan is not the job you want right now if you hope for people to like you.
-Voters must not be very happy with the Michigan House of Representatives back in Republican control, because they say if they could vote today they'd support Democrats for the legislature by a 47-36 margin. A lot of Democratic voters jumped ship last year but now 94% say they would support their party's candidates if the election was today, compared to only 88% of GOP voters committed to their party. Republicans do lead by a 6 point margin with independents but that represents a significant shift from the blow out advantages GOP candidates tended to have with them in the state last year. Democrats would probably retake control of the House if they won the popular vote by this much next November.
Full results here
Obama leads in Colorado
Barack Obama isn't terribly popular in Colorado. But he has healthy leads over all of his potential Republican opponents there anyway and this is looking like one of the states he flipped in 2008 that's most likely to remain in his column for 2012.
Obama's Colorado approval rating is 46% with 50% of voters disapproving of him. That represents a 10 point decline on the margin from when we last polled Colorado in February, when he was at 51/45. Obama's numbers with Republicans (8/89) are identical to what they were then and he's seen only a slight down tick with Democrats (from 84/13 to 82/15). The reason his numbers have slid is a significant drop with independents. Six months ago they approved of him by a 54/42 margin. Now those numbers are reversed and then some with only 38% approving of him to 56% who disapprove.
In spite of that Obama still has solid leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. Only Mitt Romney improves on John McCain's 9 point margin of defeat in the state, trailing Obama by 7 points at 48-41. That's almost identical to the 47-41 lead we found for Obama in February, interesting considering the drop in his approval numbers since that time. Against the rest of the GOP field Obama holds a double digit advantage: he's up 12 on Michele Bachmann at 51-39, 13 on Rick Perry at 51-38, and 16 on both Herman Cain and Sarah Palin at 51-35 and 54-38 respectively.
How can Obama be doing so well despite his own lack of popularity in Colorado? Voters may not like him but they like him a heck of a lot more than any of the Republican candidates. Cain's net favorability is -10 at 20/30, Perry's is -14 at 24/38, Romney's is -21 at 30/51, Bachmann's is -22 at 28/50, and Palin's is -27 at 33/60. Obama's definitely benefiting from a 'lesser of two evils' mindset.
Colorado showed last fall it was perfectly willing to elect someone it didn't like if it liked the alternative even less. Michael Bennet had a 39/47 approval rating on our final poll before the election and still managed to get reelected and Obama's at least faring better than that. What it appears has happened over the last six months is that voters have soured on Obama but they've soured on the Republicans just as much over that period of time and the net impact has been a wash when it comes to the horse race. It's a reflection of the disgust voters are feeling towards politicians across the spectrum right now.
I think the most telling stat about the weakness of the GOP candidate field is this- despite Obama's 38/56 approval with independents he still has the upper hand against every Republican with them- a 2 point lead over Romney, 12 point advantage over Perry, 14 over Bachmann, 17 against Palin, and 19 against Cain. They're down on Obama but they're not buying the alternatives either.
The last few weeks have been some of the darkest ones of the Obama administration and for all that he still has a 7 point lead over his strongest potential opponent in Colorado. This is coming off a year where Democrats in Colorado held their Senate seat and the Governor's office in what was otherwise a terrible year for the party nationally. It's still probably best to call the state purple, but it seems to be shading toward blue.
Full results here
Obama's Colorado approval rating is 46% with 50% of voters disapproving of him. That represents a 10 point decline on the margin from when we last polled Colorado in February, when he was at 51/45. Obama's numbers with Republicans (8/89) are identical to what they were then and he's seen only a slight down tick with Democrats (from 84/13 to 82/15). The reason his numbers have slid is a significant drop with independents. Six months ago they approved of him by a 54/42 margin. Now those numbers are reversed and then some with only 38% approving of him to 56% who disapprove.
In spite of that Obama still has solid leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. Only Mitt Romney improves on John McCain's 9 point margin of defeat in the state, trailing Obama by 7 points at 48-41. That's almost identical to the 47-41 lead we found for Obama in February, interesting considering the drop in his approval numbers since that time. Against the rest of the GOP field Obama holds a double digit advantage: he's up 12 on Michele Bachmann at 51-39, 13 on Rick Perry at 51-38, and 16 on both Herman Cain and Sarah Palin at 51-35 and 54-38 respectively.
How can Obama be doing so well despite his own lack of popularity in Colorado? Voters may not like him but they like him a heck of a lot more than any of the Republican candidates. Cain's net favorability is -10 at 20/30, Perry's is -14 at 24/38, Romney's is -21 at 30/51, Bachmann's is -22 at 28/50, and Palin's is -27 at 33/60. Obama's definitely benefiting from a 'lesser of two evils' mindset.
Colorado showed last fall it was perfectly willing to elect someone it didn't like if it liked the alternative even less. Michael Bennet had a 39/47 approval rating on our final poll before the election and still managed to get reelected and Obama's at least faring better than that. What it appears has happened over the last six months is that voters have soured on Obama but they've soured on the Republicans just as much over that period of time and the net impact has been a wash when it comes to the horse race. It's a reflection of the disgust voters are feeling towards politicians across the spectrum right now.
I think the most telling stat about the weakness of the GOP candidate field is this- despite Obama's 38/56 approval with independents he still has the upper hand against every Republican with them- a 2 point lead over Romney, 12 point advantage over Perry, 14 over Bachmann, 17 against Palin, and 19 against Cain. They're down on Obama but they're not buying the alternatives either.
The last few weeks have been some of the darkest ones of the Obama administration and for all that he still has a 7 point lead over his strongest potential opponent in Colorado. This is coming off a year where Democrats in Colorado held their Senate seat and the Governor's office in what was otherwise a terrible year for the party nationally. It's still probably best to call the state purple, but it seems to be shading toward blue.
Full results here
Dismal numbers for NC GOP...but a structural advantage
North Carolina voters think the budget that went into effect last month has had a negative impact on the state and as a result the Republicans in the Legislature have now hit a record level of unpopularity, with a majority of voters disapproving of them.
33% of voters approve of the job the Republicans legislators are doing, while 50% disapprove. Those poor numbers are mostly attributable to a 24/52 spread with independent voters. What makes that particularly notable is that on our last statewide poll before the election last year we found that independents were planning to support GOP legislative candidates by a 20 point margin, 51-31. Those voters are clearly having second thoughts now about the outcomes of their choices last fall.
Why have the Republicans hit a record low? There are a couple clues within the questions we asked on the poll. A little more than a month after the new state budget went into effect 45% of voters say they think it's having a negative impact on the state compared to only 14% who think it's making a positive difference. The bad feelings toward the budget cut across party lines. Democrats (49/15), independents (44/14), and even Republicans (38/13) are all more inclined to think the budget is hurting the state than helping it.
Beyond that voters are responding pretty negatively to the new redistricting maps that were approved by the legislature last month. Unsurprisingly 41% of voters expressed no opinion on such an inside baseball topic. But among those who have one only 19% of voters support the new district lines to 41% opposed. Independents oppose them by a 47/20 margin and while Republicans support them, as you would expect, the 33-20 spread is much tighter than the 54-8 one by which Democrats are against them.
Those new boundary lines may be the GOP legislative majority's saving grace though. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot this month by a 46-42 margin. That margin would certainly result in the party picking up seats if there was an election today, and it would give them a pretty decent chance at taking back control- under the current boundary lines. But the Republicans did such a good job in redistricting that I think it could well take a double digit advantage on the generic ballot for Democrats to win back a majority under these lines and that's only likely to happen in a wave election year on par with 2006. At this point that doesn't look terribly likely to occur last year.
The Republican legislators are extremely unpopular- but one of their unpopular actions could leave them in power for years to come.
Full results here
33% of voters approve of the job the Republicans legislators are doing, while 50% disapprove. Those poor numbers are mostly attributable to a 24/52 spread with independent voters. What makes that particularly notable is that on our last statewide poll before the election last year we found that independents were planning to support GOP legislative candidates by a 20 point margin, 51-31. Those voters are clearly having second thoughts now about the outcomes of their choices last fall.
Why have the Republicans hit a record low? There are a couple clues within the questions we asked on the poll. A little more than a month after the new state budget went into effect 45% of voters say they think it's having a negative impact on the state compared to only 14% who think it's making a positive difference. The bad feelings toward the budget cut across party lines. Democrats (49/15), independents (44/14), and even Republicans (38/13) are all more inclined to think the budget is hurting the state than helping it.
Beyond that voters are responding pretty negatively to the new redistricting maps that were approved by the legislature last month. Unsurprisingly 41% of voters expressed no opinion on such an inside baseball topic. But among those who have one only 19% of voters support the new district lines to 41% opposed. Independents oppose them by a 47/20 margin and while Republicans support them, as you would expect, the 33-20 spread is much tighter than the 54-8 one by which Democrats are against them.
Those new boundary lines may be the GOP legislative majority's saving grace though. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot this month by a 46-42 margin. That margin would certainly result in the party picking up seats if there was an election today, and it would give them a pretty decent chance at taking back control- under the current boundary lines. But the Republicans did such a good job in redistricting that I think it could well take a double digit advantage on the generic ballot for Democrats to win back a majority under these lines and that's only likely to happen in a wave election year on par with 2006. At this point that doesn't look terribly likely to occur last year.
The Republican legislators are extremely unpopular- but one of their unpopular actions could leave them in power for years to come.
Full results here
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