I am taking my first vacation time in over a year (thank you extended primary!) for the rest of the week so we're just going to have one public poll out, in Colorado, Monday or Tuesday next week.
We're going in the field in Ohio and Missouri probably Wednesday for releases the week of the 18th and I would appreciate any input you might have as we continue to look at possible 2010 Senate match ups.
Our Ohio June poll found Tim Ryan tied and Betty Sutton just behind George Voinovich, while our July poll found Jennifer Brunner leading and Mike Coleman narrowly trailing Voinovich. Who would be your picks for our next duo to test?
In Missouri we found Robin Carnahan narrowly trailing Kit Bond with Susan Montee further behind in July, and I'm open to your suggestions on who we should look at this time around.
Our Colorado poll will have some 2010 Senate goodness, with a look at how Congressman Tom Tancredo and Secretary of State Mike Coffman match up with Ken Salazar.
I'm headed to Phoenix first thing in the morning to see my beloved but moribund Braves probably get slaughtered by the D-Backs and will likely do little or no blogging between now and Monday. Hope to come back to some good suggestions for our next round of polls!
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Crossover Voters
One thing that could be a problem for both Barack Obama and Pat McCrory as they try to succeed in North Carolina this year is folks in their parties crossing party lines to vote for their opponents.
Typically Republican candidates get a higher percentage of the vote from folks who identify with their party than Democratic candidates do- and that's a virtual necessity in a state where Democrats have a significant registration advantage. But our most recent poll found McCrory leading just 72-12 with Republicans while Perdue leads 76-12 with Democrats. It's not a big difference but still one that makes it close to impossible for McCrory to succeed unless he changes it.
So who are these Republicans for Perdue? They're disproportionately middle aged, urban women. In addition to supporting Perdue they're also going for Beth Wood, June Atkinson, and Elaine Marshall. At the same time they support Elizabeth Dole over Kay Hagan and Cherie Berry over Mary Fant Donnan overwhelmingly. So it appears this crop of Republican voters is choosing gender first, then using party as the tie breaker. It certainly helps to explain the success of female candidates in the state.
How about the Democrats for McCain? They don't fit the profile of former Hillary supporters, the way crossover voters have in other states like Florida and Michigan. They are white men, disproportionately senior citizens. Obama's race is probably not the issue for them because while they identify as Democrats they are voting Republican in almost every race with the exception of their support for Walter Dalton, Roy Cooper, and Elaine Marshall. These are the folks who are registered 'D' either because they have been since the 1960s and 70s, or because their parents were before them but don't tend to actually vote Democratic.
Folks often wonder why a state with a 12 point Democratic registration advantage isn't more supportive of Democratic candidates, particularly at the federal level. Those folks are the reason why.
Typically Republican candidates get a higher percentage of the vote from folks who identify with their party than Democratic candidates do- and that's a virtual necessity in a state where Democrats have a significant registration advantage. But our most recent poll found McCrory leading just 72-12 with Republicans while Perdue leads 76-12 with Democrats. It's not a big difference but still one that makes it close to impossible for McCrory to succeed unless he changes it.
So who are these Republicans for Perdue? They're disproportionately middle aged, urban women. In addition to supporting Perdue they're also going for Beth Wood, June Atkinson, and Elaine Marshall. At the same time they support Elizabeth Dole over Kay Hagan and Cherie Berry over Mary Fant Donnan overwhelmingly. So it appears this crop of Republican voters is choosing gender first, then using party as the tie breaker. It certainly helps to explain the success of female candidates in the state.
How about the Democrats for McCain? They don't fit the profile of former Hillary supporters, the way crossover voters have in other states like Florida and Michigan. They are white men, disproportionately senior citizens. Obama's race is probably not the issue for them because while they identify as Democrats they are voting Republican in almost every race with the exception of their support for Walter Dalton, Roy Cooper, and Elaine Marshall. These are the folks who are registered 'D' either because they have been since the 1960s and 70s, or because their parents were before them but don't tend to actually vote Democratic.
Folks often wonder why a state with a 12 point Democratic registration advantage isn't more supportive of Democratic candidates, particularly at the federal level. Those folks are the reason why.
Florida Senate 2010
Mel Martinez Approval:
Approve 24
Disapprove 40
Bob Graham 51
Martinez 31
Debbie Wasserman Schultz 38
Martinez 37
PPP continues to find Republican Senator Mel Martinez with a paltry approval rating and a bad showing when matched up with possible opponents in 2010.
It appears former Senator Bob Graham would be a virtual shoo in if he was interested in reclaiming his old seat. It's not as crazy as it might sound. Barry Goldwater successfully returned to the US Senate four years after his losing campaign for the Presidency in 1964, and New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg was four years older in 2002 than Graham will be in 2010 when Lautenberg decided to return after retiring in 2000.
Graham leads with pretty much every demographic subgroup and holds Martinez to 56% even with Republican voters while holding a 58-20 lead with independents.
Wasserman Schultz leads Martinez despite never having run for statewide office.
Last month PPP found Martinez trailing CFO Alex Sink and tied with Congressman Robert Wexler in possible match ups. Based on his approval ratings and these head to head numbers Martinez figures to be the #1 target for Senate Democrats in 2010.
Full results here.
Approve 24
Disapprove 40
Bob Graham 51
Martinez 31
Debbie Wasserman Schultz 38
Martinez 37
PPP continues to find Republican Senator Mel Martinez with a paltry approval rating and a bad showing when matched up with possible opponents in 2010.
It appears former Senator Bob Graham would be a virtual shoo in if he was interested in reclaiming his old seat. It's not as crazy as it might sound. Barry Goldwater successfully returned to the US Senate four years after his losing campaign for the Presidency in 1964, and New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg was four years older in 2002 than Graham will be in 2010 when Lautenberg decided to return after retiring in 2000.
Graham leads with pretty much every demographic subgroup and holds Martinez to 56% even with Republican voters while holding a 58-20 lead with independents.
Wasserman Schultz leads Martinez despite never having run for statewide office.
Last month PPP found Martinez trailing CFO Alex Sink and tied with Congressman Robert Wexler in possible match ups. Based on his approval ratings and these head to head numbers Martinez figures to be the #1 target for Senate Democrats in 2010.
Full results here.
Florida President
John McCain 47
Barack Obama 44
John McCain has retaken the lead in Florida after trailing Barack Obama by a small margin last month. The candidates split the independent vote, while McCain receives 84% support from Republicans and Obama gets 76% support from Democrats. The Democrats crossing over to support McCain are disproportionately older white females, an indication that Hillary Clinton's base may not be completely behind Obama in the Sunshine State.
Obama has slipped with Hispanic voters in the last month, leading among them just 48-45 after holding a 51-37 advantage in PPP's previous Florida poll. The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points with men. Last month's results similarly showed Obama doing eight points better with men than women, a trend PPP has not seen in any of its other state by state polling.
Obama has a large lead among young voters, McCain has a big one with senior citizens, and the candidates are virtually tied with those in between.
Full results here.
Barack Obama 44
John McCain has retaken the lead in Florida after trailing Barack Obama by a small margin last month. The candidates split the independent vote, while McCain receives 84% support from Republicans and Obama gets 76% support from Democrats. The Democrats crossing over to support McCain are disproportionately older white females, an indication that Hillary Clinton's base may not be completely behind Obama in the Sunshine State.
Obama has slipped with Hispanic voters in the last month, leading among them just 48-45 after holding a 51-37 advantage in PPP's previous Florida poll. The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points with men. Last month's results similarly showed Obama doing eight points better with men than women, a trend PPP has not seen in any of its other state by state polling.
Obama has a large lead among young voters, McCain has a big one with senior citizens, and the candidates are virtually tied with those in between.
Full results here.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Governor's Race and Debates
Every time something happens in the Governor's race that Pat McCrory doesn't like it seems like his response is to challenge Bev Perdue to have more debates.
Maybe he should ask Richard Moore how playing that card over and over again worked.
As Perdue's campaign has pointed out, she has already agreed to participate in more debates than the Presidential candidates are having. McCrory says the voters need debates so that they can see where the candidates stand on the issues, but isn't debating about debates as big a distraction from the issues as you could possible have?
Seems like a silly distraction to me, and one of little relevance to most voters.
Maybe he should ask Richard Moore how playing that card over and over again worked.
As Perdue's campaign has pointed out, she has already agreed to participate in more debates than the Presidential candidates are having. McCrory says the voters need debates so that they can see where the candidates stand on the issues, but isn't debating about debates as big a distraction from the issues as you could possible have?
Seems like a silly distraction to me, and one of little relevance to most voters.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Auditor's Race
I heard from half a dozen people with their theories about why Beth Wood is significantly out polling Les Merritt but the most plausible came from one of the wisest veterans of North Carolina politics: a Democratic woman is going to beat a Republican man.
There's a lot of validity to that. Democrats lead in 4 of 5 Council of State races where they've nominated a woman running against a man, and I imagine Janet Cowell is going to end up winning this fall as well. In the 5 races that don't fit that description Democrats have the advantage in only 2.
It just is not plausible that a significant mass of voters are choosing against Merritt because of his job performance. Given that Civitas recently found less than half of the state's likely voters know who controls the Legislature, I'm guessing even less know who the Auditor is, and even less beyond that have an opinion about his job performance one way or the other.
At the end of the day the why doesn't matter all that much- at this point Beth Wood is the clear favorite to beat the incumbent.
There's a lot of validity to that. Democrats lead in 4 of 5 Council of State races where they've nominated a woman running against a man, and I imagine Janet Cowell is going to end up winning this fall as well. In the 5 races that don't fit that description Democrats have the advantage in only 2.
It just is not plausible that a significant mass of voters are choosing against Merritt because of his job performance. Given that Civitas recently found less than half of the state's likely voters know who controls the Legislature, I'm guessing even less know who the Auditor is, and even less beyond that have an opinion about his job performance one way or the other.
At the end of the day the why doesn't matter all that much- at this point Beth Wood is the clear favorite to beat the incumbent.
Obama's Current NC Tipping Point
Whether Barack Obama can win North Carolina or not will have a lot to do with what percentage of the electorate this fall is composed of African Americans. The most recent census estimate shows blacks at a little under 22% of the population, but in 2004 they made up just 18.5% of the state's voting population.
If blacks don't turn out at a higher rate relative to the rest of the population than they did in 2004, Obama has no chance. On the other hand, if they vote at a higher rate than the white population and push the black composition of the electorate up over 22% this year, Obama could even be favored in North Carolina.
Using our latest poll, here's how the contest in North Carolina would look weighting the African American vote to be anywhere from 18 to 23%:
At this point anyway it looks like 23% could be the North Carolina tipping point.
If blacks don't turn out at a higher rate relative to the rest of the population than they did in 2004, Obama has no chance. On the other hand, if they vote at a higher rate than the white population and push the black composition of the electorate up over 22% this year, Obama could even be favored in North Carolina.
Using our latest poll, here's how the contest in North Carolina would look weighting the African American vote to be anywhere from 18 to 23%:
| Black % of Electorate | McCain | Obama |
| 18 | 48 | 43 |
| 19 | 47 | 44 |
| 20 | 47 | 44 |
| 21 | 46 | 45 |
| 22 | 46 | 45 |
| 23 | 45 | 46 |
Arizona likes its politicians
Over the last two months PPP has done approval ratings for a variety of Governors and Senators across the country and hasn't found a single one over 50%. Politicians are not particularly popular right now.
Arizona is the exception though. We found Governor Janet Napolitano with a 54% approval rating and Senator John McCain with 53% approval.
We also did a test to see how the two might fare against each other in a possible 2010 Senate match up. McCain leads Napolitano 50-43, not particularly surprising given the volume of media attention he's received this year.
Full results here.
Arizona is the exception though. We found Governor Janet Napolitano with a 54% approval rating and Senator John McCain with 53% approval.
We also did a test to see how the two might fare against each other in a possible 2010 Senate match up. McCain leads Napolitano 50-43, not particularly surprising given the volume of media attention he's received this year.
Full results here.
Arizona President
John McCain 52
Barack Obama 40
There's been a lot of talk the last week that Arizona could be closer than expected this fall, but PPP's newest survey in the state shows John McCain holding a solid lead.
There are a few things helping McCain to do well in his home state. He trails Barack Obama only 48-40 among Latino voters, a performance much better than national polling is showing with that demographic. He's also getting more crossover support than Obama, with 16% of the Democratic vote, while holding almost everyone in his own party, earning 87% of the Republican vote.
There's not much of a gender gap, with McCain holding solid leads with both men and women. He leads every group except the 18-29 demographic.
With many traditionally GOP states like Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Montana to name a few looking more winnable for Obama than Arizona this may be a state not worth putting much effort into.
Full results here.
Barack Obama 40
There's been a lot of talk the last week that Arizona could be closer than expected this fall, but PPP's newest survey in the state shows John McCain holding a solid lead.
There are a few things helping McCain to do well in his home state. He trails Barack Obama only 48-40 among Latino voters, a performance much better than national polling is showing with that demographic. He's also getting more crossover support than Obama, with 16% of the Democratic vote, while holding almost everyone in his own party, earning 87% of the Republican vote.
There's not much of a gender gap, with McCain holding solid leads with both men and women. He leads every group except the 18-29 demographic.
With many traditionally GOP states like Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Montana to name a few looking more winnable for Obama than Arizona this may be a state not worth putting much effort into.
Full results here.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Wrapping Up the Week/Coming Attractions
-Chris Hayes from Civitas and I cordially discussed our latest polling numbers with Kim Genardo on NBC 17. It's from about the 3:30 to 10:00 mark here.
-Tara Servatius from WBT and I discussed how the last few weeks of the campaign have not been great for Pat McCrory here.
Coming this week:
-We'll have new numbers in Arizona. There's been a lot of speculation this week that the race could be tight there but I don't know about that.
-We'll also release our new Florida poll, including a look at how Bob Graham and Debbie Wasserman Schultz might match up with Mel Martinez in 2010.
-Tara Servatius from WBT and I discussed how the last few weeks of the campaign have not been great for Pat McCrory here.
Coming this week:
-We'll have new numbers in Arizona. There's been a lot of speculation this week that the race could be tight there but I don't know about that.
-We'll also release our new Florida poll, including a look at how Bob Graham and Debbie Wasserman Schultz might match up with Mel Martinez in 2010.
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