John Lassiter leads Anthony Foxx 50-46 in PPP's final survey of the Charlotte Mayoral race.
If Lassiter does indeed end up as the winner it will be his overwhelming support among white voters that made it possible. He leads 68-29 with them, up from 63-29 a week ago. Those numbers are a good deal more lopsided even than the McCain/Obama numbers in North Carolina. Foxx is up 86-12 with African Americans.
Not a lot more to say on this- the race is still within the margin of error and it's all going to be about who turns out tomorrow.
Susan Burgess, Edwin Peacock, Patrick Cannon, and Tariq Scott Bokhari continue to lead the City Council races with David Howard moving closer.
Full results here
Monday, November 2, 2009
Chapel Hill too close to call
The race to be Chapel Hill's next Mayor is too close to call. Matt Czajkowski leads Mark Kleinschmidt 45-44, a difference that suffice it to say is within the margin of error.
The key finding in the poll underscoring how divided the community is headed into election day is that 49% of voters think the town is headed in the right direction while 51% think it's off on the wrong track. That should make for closely contested races both for Mayor and Town Council.
Among voters happy with the current state of things Kleinschmidt leads 75-17. With those who would like a new direction Czajkowski has a 70-17 lead.
Both candidates are pretty well liked. 57% of voters have a favorable opinion of Kleinschmidt to 25% negative and for Czajkowski it's a positive 50/31 spread.
Kleinschmidt leads 58-34 with Democrats while Czajkowski is up 54-25 with independents and 79-13 with Republicans.
The race is also functioning to some extent as a referendum on Kevin Foy's time as Mayor. Kleinschmidt leads 73-20 with people who think Foy's doing a good job while Czajkowski is up 79-9 with people who think he's not. Foy leaves office with a pretty solid 50/31 approval spread, but the Town Council is less popular with 49% of voters expressing general disapproval of it to 40% giving it good marks.
There are inherent difficulties involved in polling Chapel Hill that could skew the results in one direction or another. There are many 'cell phone only' voters, particularly students, who would not be surveyed. Conventional wisdom would suggest those folks support Kleinschmidt because most students are Democrats and most Democrats support Kleinschmidt but there's no way to know that for sure. The poll also focused on people who have voted in local elections before, which would exclude people unhappy with the direction of the town coming out for the first time, which would be to Czajkowski's benefit. Hard to say how those factors do or don't offset each other but either way the race is almost definitely tight.
In the Council races Ed Harrison leads the way with 12% of the four way vote followed by Gene Pease at 11% and Laurin Easthom at 10%. Bunched very closely together for fourth place are Jon Dehart and Matt Pohlman at 9% and Penny Rich at 8%. Further back are Jim Merritt with 7% and Will Raymond with 3%. Voters were undecided about how they would distribute 30% of their Council votes, meaning that really anyone is in contention probably except Raymond.
It should be a close one, it's all going to come down to who can get their people out to the polls.
Full results here
The key finding in the poll underscoring how divided the community is headed into election day is that 49% of voters think the town is headed in the right direction while 51% think it's off on the wrong track. That should make for closely contested races both for Mayor and Town Council.
Among voters happy with the current state of things Kleinschmidt leads 75-17. With those who would like a new direction Czajkowski has a 70-17 lead.
Both candidates are pretty well liked. 57% of voters have a favorable opinion of Kleinschmidt to 25% negative and for Czajkowski it's a positive 50/31 spread.
Kleinschmidt leads 58-34 with Democrats while Czajkowski is up 54-25 with independents and 79-13 with Republicans.
The race is also functioning to some extent as a referendum on Kevin Foy's time as Mayor. Kleinschmidt leads 73-20 with people who think Foy's doing a good job while Czajkowski is up 79-9 with people who think he's not. Foy leaves office with a pretty solid 50/31 approval spread, but the Town Council is less popular with 49% of voters expressing general disapproval of it to 40% giving it good marks.
There are inherent difficulties involved in polling Chapel Hill that could skew the results in one direction or another. There are many 'cell phone only' voters, particularly students, who would not be surveyed. Conventional wisdom would suggest those folks support Kleinschmidt because most students are Democrats and most Democrats support Kleinschmidt but there's no way to know that for sure. The poll also focused on people who have voted in local elections before, which would exclude people unhappy with the direction of the town coming out for the first time, which would be to Czajkowski's benefit. Hard to say how those factors do or don't offset each other but either way the race is almost definitely tight.
In the Council races Ed Harrison leads the way with 12% of the four way vote followed by Gene Pease at 11% and Laurin Easthom at 10%. Bunched very closely together for fourth place are Jon Dehart and Matt Pohlman at 9% and Penny Rich at 8%. Further back are Jim Merritt with 7% and Will Raymond with 3%. Voters were undecided about how they would distribute 30% of their Council votes, meaning that really anyone is in contention probably except Raymond.
It should be a close one, it's all going to come down to who can get their people out to the polls.
Full results here
Chapel Hill and Charlotte...
Not going to get to Chapel Hill and Charlotte tonight. Chapel Hill should be out by noon tomorrow, we need to do some more interviews in Charlotte but we'll try to get it out by early afternoon.
Thanks for staying up with us. Unless Democrats really have an aversion to answering polls on Halloween weekend (wasn't a problem last year) Tuesday is going to be a pretty brutal election night. We shall see.
Thanks for staying up with us. Unless Democrats really have an aversion to answering polls on Halloween weekend (wasn't a problem last year) Tuesday is going to be a pretty brutal election night. We shall see.
Republicans headed for a Virginia sweep
Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP's final poll of the race.
In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. Even 36% of Deeds' supporters said he hadn't made a good argument for why he should be elected.
Beyond that the same themes that have shown throughout the general election show up in the last survey. 61% of McDonnell's voters are 'very excited' to vote on Tuesday while just 14% are 'not very excited.' For Deeds' supporters on the other hand 36% are 'not very excited about casting their ballots and just 31% are 'very excited.' That enthusiasm gap has existed for months now and made a Deeds comeback all but impossible.
McDonnell continues the overwhelming lead he has had with independents for the entire campaign, 63-33. He's also benefiting from greater party unity, winning 94% of the Republican vote to Deeds' 87% of the Democratic vote.
McDonnell will be bringing some folks with him. Bill Bolling leads 54-41 for Lieutenant Governor and Ken Cuccinelli has a 55-39 advantage for Attorney General. Republicans also have a 48-39 lead on the generic House of Delegates ballot.
Voters in the state seem to know what's coming. 64% say they think McDonnell will win to only 24% who believe Deeds will pull it out.
It's likely to be a quick election night in Virginia Tuesday.
Full results here
In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. Even 36% of Deeds' supporters said he hadn't made a good argument for why he should be elected.
Beyond that the same themes that have shown throughout the general election show up in the last survey. 61% of McDonnell's voters are 'very excited' to vote on Tuesday while just 14% are 'not very excited.' For Deeds' supporters on the other hand 36% are 'not very excited about casting their ballots and just 31% are 'very excited.' That enthusiasm gap has existed for months now and made a Deeds comeback all but impossible.
McDonnell continues the overwhelming lead he has had with independents for the entire campaign, 63-33. He's also benefiting from greater party unity, winning 94% of the Republican vote to Deeds' 87% of the Democratic vote.
McDonnell will be bringing some folks with him. Bill Bolling leads 54-41 for Lieutenant Governor and Ken Cuccinelli has a 55-39 advantage for Attorney General. Republicans also have a 48-39 lead on the generic House of Delegates ballot.
Voters in the state seem to know what's coming. 64% say they think McDonnell will win to only 24% who believe Deeds will pull it out.
It's likely to be a quick election night in Virginia Tuesday.
Full results here
Marriage still close in Maine
Maine voters narrowly favor Question 1, which would reverse the state's law legalizing same sex marriage.
At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.
The measure's fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer.
Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It's just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out.
On Question 4, which is the Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR 2), the outcome is more clear. 57% of voters are opposed to it with just 39% in favor. 76% of Democrats, 53% of independents, and even 39% of Republicans say they will vote against it and it's safe to say it has no chance with that level of opposition from the GOP.
Full results here
At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.
The measure's fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer.
Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It's just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out.
On Question 4, which is the Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR 2), the outcome is more clear. 57% of voters are opposed to it with just 39% in favor. 76% of Democrats, 53% of independents, and even 39% of Republicans say they will vote against it and it's safe to say it has no chance with that level of opposition from the GOP.
Full results here
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Christie leads
Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.
Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.
Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.
As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.
As is the case around the country this year enthusiasm is on the Republicans' side in New Jersey. 47% of Christie's supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall to just 34% of Corzine's. The electorate is also likely to be more Republican leaning this year with likely voters reporting that they voted for Obama by a 54-43 margin in 2008, a spread narrower than the actual 57-42 result in the state.
In a finding symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices this year Christie is polling at 47% despite the fact that only 40% of voters think he made a strong case for why he should be elected Governor. Fully 27% of Christie's supporters don't feel he made the case for himself but Corzine's approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils.
Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren't a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.
Full results here
Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.
Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.
As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.
As is the case around the country this year enthusiasm is on the Republicans' side in New Jersey. 47% of Christie's supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall to just 34% of Corzine's. The electorate is also likely to be more Republican leaning this year with likely voters reporting that they voted for Obama by a 54-43 margin in 2008, a spread narrower than the actual 57-42 result in the state.
In a finding symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices this year Christie is polling at 47% despite the fact that only 40% of voters think he made a strong case for why he should be elected Governor. Fully 27% of Christie's supporters don't feel he made the case for himself but Corzine's approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils.
Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren't a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.
Full results here
Hoffman leads big
Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.
In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.
Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. Poll respondents Saturday afternoon/evening and early Sunday afternoon were informed that Scozzafava had dropped out but that her name would still be on the ballot. During that period of time Hoffman led Owens 51-34 with Scozzafava's share going down to 12%. After Scozzafava announced she was endorsing Owens the remaining Sunday respondents were informed of that and the race showed a little tightening with Hoffman up 52-38 on Owens and Scozzafava's share dropping to 7%.
The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava's actions over the course of the weekend.
Hoffman is leading Scozzafava 71-15 among Republicans with 12% going to Owens. Among Democrats Owens gets 67% to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.
One key finding that may have ultimately scuttled Scozzafava's candidacy: 59% of Republicans considered her to be a liberal and only 7% thought she was a conservative. By comparison 80% of them consider Hoffman to be a conservative, and that's a good thing where nearly two thirds of GOP voters define themselves that way.
Republican voters also appear to be considerably more energized about the election than Democrats. While Barack Obama won a narrow victory in NY-23 last year, those planning to vote in this race supported John McCain by a 51-43 margin. Obama's approval rating with likely voters is just 39%.
We will have much more on NY-23 over the next 24 hours.
Full results here
In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.
Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. Poll respondents Saturday afternoon/evening and early Sunday afternoon were informed that Scozzafava had dropped out but that her name would still be on the ballot. During that period of time Hoffman led Owens 51-34 with Scozzafava's share going down to 12%. After Scozzafava announced she was endorsing Owens the remaining Sunday respondents were informed of that and the race showed a little tightening with Hoffman up 52-38 on Owens and Scozzafava's share dropping to 7%.
The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava's actions over the course of the weekend.
Hoffman is leading Scozzafava 71-15 among Republicans with 12% going to Owens. Among Democrats Owens gets 67% to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.
One key finding that may have ultimately scuttled Scozzafava's candidacy: 59% of Republicans considered her to be a liberal and only 7% thought she was a conservative. By comparison 80% of them consider Hoffman to be a conservative, and that's a good thing where nearly two thirds of GOP voters define themselves that way.
Republican voters also appear to be considerably more energized about the election than Democrats. While Barack Obama won a narrow victory in NY-23 last year, those planning to vote in this race supported John McCain by a 51-43 margin. Obama's approval rating with likely voters is just 39%.
We will have much more on NY-23 over the next 24 hours.
Full results here
Tonight's Poll Schedule
Roughly speaking:
NY-23 around 10
New Jersey around 11
Maine around midnight
Virginia around 1 AM
Chapel Hill around 2 AM
Charlotte around 3 AM
NY-23 around 10
New Jersey around 11
Maine around midnight
Virginia around 1 AM
Chapel Hill around 2 AM
Charlotte around 3 AM
NY-23
Why are your numbers in NY-23 so different from Siena and Research 2000?
We're getting a lot of that today.
Two main reasons:
-We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing. Research 2000 had Hoffman leading 41-34 with GOP voters. Siena had it at 50-29. We find it at 66-17 so far.
-We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama's favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama's approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We're finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall's narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we're finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won't know if we were right or not until Tuesday.
We're getting a lot of that today.
Two main reasons:
-We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing. Research 2000 had Hoffman leading 41-34 with GOP voters. Siena had it at 50-29. We find it at 66-17 so far.
-We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama's favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama's approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We're finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall's narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we're finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won't know if we were right or not until Tuesday.
More NY-23 mess
Man NY-23 is really a mess.
Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:
-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.
-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava's a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.
-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don't listen to the show.
I am going to swap in a third version of our horse race question for remaining interviews today noting that Scozzafava has suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. The Hoffman lead is wide enough that I feel comfortable releasing numbers later this evening although there will certainly be a lot of caveats- and we will certainly release tabs by when people were interviewed.
Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:
-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.
-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava's a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.
-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don't listen to the show.
I am going to swap in a third version of our horse race question for remaining interviews today noting that Scozzafava has suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. The Hoffman lead is wide enough that I feel comfortable releasing numbers later this evening although there will certainly be a lot of caveats- and we will certainly release tabs by when people were interviewed.
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