The Presidential tracking poll we released on Wednesday had lots of numbers and lots of crosstabs. After some analysis, here's what we found:
Not surprisingly, support for President Bush and Senator Dole was split along party lines. Independent support for Bush is only at 32%. Dole has very high marks among Republicans, but she is losing support among Independents, which is not a good sign for her upcoming reelection. Interestingly, disapproval for President Bush is equally dismal throughout every age group. About 60% of each group disapproves of Bush, regardless of party. His approval ratings continue to drop on a monthly basis, and if he keeps heading in the direction he is, especially on immigration, even his base will abandon him.
Among women voters, Dole seems to have higher support than Hillary Clinton, which is surprising considering that Hillary is the Democrat. Her support among women isn't as high as expected considering the high number of female Democratic voters. Even though she garners more female support than any one of her male candidates, she never receives more than 50% of her support from women. Oddly, Dole has the highest approval among young voters. Dole's approval rating is more than 50% among voters between 18 and 45.
In the Presidential matchups, Edwards and Obama have the most support among Independent voters. They receive more Independent support than any of their Republican rivals and more than Clinton. However, Clinton receives the highest portion of black support, even more than Obama. While Obama's support among blacks is around 70%, Clinton has support upwards of 75%. Her high support among blacks is likely due to her high name recognition and the fact that her husband is very highly supported in the black community.
Where Clinton garners support among blacks, though, Obama and Edwards have high support from younger voters. Both Obama and Edwards have the highest percentage of support from young people, with well over 50% of voters between 18 and 29 support either candidate. Interestingly, Fred Thompson also has relatively high support among young voters. More voters between 18 and 29 support Thompson than Clinton, and against Edwards, Thompson has 47% support.
Barack Obama has limited support throughout the state, only really having high support in the 919 area code (the Triangl), which is arguably the most Democratic area of the state. However, name recognition might be a problem since he is a freshman Senator and doesn't have very much support throughout the state.
By Carrie and Mark
Friday, June 22, 2007
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Hayes 45, Kissell 43
Saw this on Daily Kos:
Anzalone Liszt (D). 5/22. No trend lines.
Hayes (R) 45
Kissell (D) 43
Name ID
Hayes (R) 83%
Kissell (D) 34%
Bush approval rating
Approve 38
Disapprove 61
Some more findings from that poll, which I received via email (I don't know if it's posted anywhere online):
Kissell ran easily the most innovative race of last cycle, and came close to this victory despite being outspent $2.4M to $781K.
This cycle is a little different. The DCCC clearly has targeted this seat and will focus resources on it (though hopefully won't touch Kissell's innovative campaign team). On the other hand, Hayes can't laugh off his opponent and take it easy. He'll be taking this race seriously, which should make Kissell's task that much tougher.
And now an update on BlueNC too.
Anzalone Liszt (D). 5/22. No trend lines.
Hayes (R) 45
Kissell (D) 43
Name ID
Hayes (R) 83%
Kissell (D) 34%
Bush approval rating
Approve 38
Disapprove 61
Some more findings from that poll, which I received via email (I don't know if it's posted anywhere online):
Hayes continues to be hurt by the harsh political environment still facing national Republicans. A majority (57%) of voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, while only 21% believe it is moving in the right direction.Talking to last cycle's DCCC crowd, this race, more than any other, makes them kick themselves. They swear up and down that late polling in the race (two separate polls) showed Hayes with a comfortable double-digit lead over Kissell so they looked elsewhere for pickup opportunities. And while they found plenty of them (it was a bumper crop), Kissell came just 329 votes shy of victory -- the tightest race and most painful House loss of the cycle.
A majority (56%) now believe we should not have gone to war, while 57% favor a plan to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq this year and having almost all the troops out by next year.
Kissell ran easily the most innovative race of last cycle, and came close to this victory despite being outspent $2.4M to $781K.
This cycle is a little different. The DCCC clearly has targeted this seat and will focus resources on it (though hopefully won't touch Kissell's innovative campaign team). On the other hand, Hayes can't laugh off his opponent and take it easy. He'll be taking this race seriously, which should make Kissell's task that much tougher.
And now an update on BlueNC too.
Civitas Craziness
After attending the monthly Civitas Institute luncheon today downtown and listening to a room full of Republicans analyze a Civitas poll and bash Democratic ideals, I thought I'd respond.
Most of the results themselves weren't very surprising. The questions about Elizabeth Dole and potential challengers to her Senate seat in 2008 seemed reasonable, as did the results. However, the fact that Dole's approval rating is below 50% and a potential mathcup between her and Brad Miller has her only receiving 46% support is not a good thing for Republicans. As Justing noted, even though she leads Miller by 15 points, having less than 50% support is not a good sign for an incumbent.
Some of questions moreso than others seemed clearly slanted toward the right. The questions on immigration reform mentioned amnesty, a word that brings up very negative feelings on the subject. Its no surprise that when the recent Congressional bill was branded as amnesty, people showed overwhelming opposition to it.
When discussing the results of the taxation questions, it was noted that the way in which the questions were framed and what the taxes would pay for was very important in how people responded. Obviously, people are relatively opposed to higher taxes no matter what the circumstance, but telling people that the taxes would pay for pork projects, tax breaks to businesses, and new state jobs will create an even more negative reaction. Telling people their taxes will go to pay for useless or unnecessary budget expenses is not a good way to prove that taxes are bad. The majority of people accept taxes because they know they go towards essential social services and improving our state. If people wanted no new taxes as much as this poll and the ideologues at the Civitas meeting suggest, then people would vote that way. But they don't, which is why the Democrats have a majority in the state legislature and not the Republicans.
Aside from the poll, the overall perception I got from the meeting was that of desperate optimism over the direction in which the Republican party is moving. Many of the attendees were staunchly conservative and did little to hide their disdain over the Democratic leadership in Congress and North Carolina government. However, the facts don't lie. Bush's approval rating is the lowest it's ever been, people are fed up with the War, and the Democrats now control Congress and looking towards the White House.
They year 1994 was repeatedly brought up. The nostalgia for that year as the rise of Republican dominance was apparent and it seems as if those who still have faith in the party are trying their best to recreate the environment of 1994. I don't think that's going to happen soon, especially with the President making policy mistake after mistake and further alienating his supporters. The more people associate President Bush with the Republican establishment, the worse it will get for the party.
Most of the results themselves weren't very surprising. The questions about Elizabeth Dole and potential challengers to her Senate seat in 2008 seemed reasonable, as did the results. However, the fact that Dole's approval rating is below 50% and a potential mathcup between her and Brad Miller has her only receiving 46% support is not a good thing for Republicans. As Justing noted, even though she leads Miller by 15 points, having less than 50% support is not a good sign for an incumbent.
Some of questions moreso than others seemed clearly slanted toward the right. The questions on immigration reform mentioned amnesty, a word that brings up very negative feelings on the subject. Its no surprise that when the recent Congressional bill was branded as amnesty, people showed overwhelming opposition to it.
When discussing the results of the taxation questions, it was noted that the way in which the questions were framed and what the taxes would pay for was very important in how people responded. Obviously, people are relatively opposed to higher taxes no matter what the circumstance, but telling people that the taxes would pay for pork projects, tax breaks to businesses, and new state jobs will create an even more negative reaction. Telling people their taxes will go to pay for useless or unnecessary budget expenses is not a good way to prove that taxes are bad. The majority of people accept taxes because they know they go towards essential social services and improving our state. If people wanted no new taxes as much as this poll and the ideologues at the Civitas meeting suggest, then people would vote that way. But they don't, which is why the Democrats have a majority in the state legislature and not the Republicans.
Aside from the poll, the overall perception I got from the meeting was that of desperate optimism over the direction in which the Republican party is moving. Many of the attendees were staunchly conservative and did little to hide their disdain over the Democratic leadership in Congress and North Carolina government. However, the facts don't lie. Bush's approval rating is the lowest it's ever been, people are fed up with the War, and the Democrats now control Congress and looking towards the White House.
They year 1994 was repeatedly brought up. The nostalgia for that year as the rise of Republican dominance was apparent and it seems as if those who still have faith in the party are trying their best to recreate the environment of 1994. I don't think that's going to happen soon, especially with the President making policy mistake after mistake and further alienating his supporters. The more people associate President Bush with the Republican establishment, the worse it will get for the party.
Presidential Match-ups in NC Poll
Complete results here. Surprisingly Clinton outperforms Obama in most of the match-ups. Giuliani is the strongest Republican followed by Fred Thompson.
Clinton 43 Edwards 46 Obama 42
Giuliani 47 Giuliani 45 Giuliani 46
Clinton 45 Edwards 48 Obama 44
McCain 44 McCain 40 McCain 45
Clinton 47 Edwards 51 Obama 47
Romney 41 Romney 37 Romney 43
Clinton 43 Edwards 47 Obama 44
Thompson 46 Thompson 43 Thompson 45
More results:
Bush Approval
Approve 37%
Disapprove 59%
Dole Approval
Approve 48%
Disapprove 40%
Hypothetical Dole vs. Bev Perdue
Dole 46%
Perdue 37%
Hypothetical Dole vs. Richard Moore
Dole 45%
Moore 34%
Clinton 43 Edwards 46 Obama 42
Giuliani 47 Giuliani 45 Giuliani 46
Clinton 45 Edwards 48 Obama 44
McCain 44 McCain 40 McCain 45
Clinton 47 Edwards 51 Obama 47
Romney 41 Romney 37 Romney 43
Clinton 43 Edwards 47 Obama 44
Thompson 46 Thompson 43 Thompson 45
More results:
Bush Approval
Approve 37%
Disapprove 59%
Dole Approval
Approve 48%
Disapprove 40%
Hypothetical Dole vs. Bev Perdue
Dole 46%
Perdue 37%
Hypothetical Dole vs. Richard Moore
Dole 45%
Moore 34%
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Civitas: First thoughts
According to the latest poll from Civitas support for President Bush among Tar Heel voters continues to fall. Bush’s approval rating fell to 36%, his lowest rating ever in a Civitas poll. 57% disapprove of the President, including 42% who strongly disapprove.
During the Civitas poll luncheon a consensus seemed to form that Bush is losing support among his Republican base, and that’s why his numbers continue to decline. One reason why is the recent immigration reform bill. A number of questions in the poll show that North Carolinians are very much against any form of perceived amnesty.
The Civitas poll also tested Congressman Brad Miller against Senator Elizabeth Dole. In a Senate race match-up Dole leads 46% to 31%. During the discussion, Republican consultant Ballard Everett was quick to note that Dole was under 50%; not a good sign for an incumbent.
The poll also found that most voters don’t know much, if anything, about Brad Miller. Miller had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 14/10, whit 38% with no opinion, and 38% unaware.
More on the Civitas poll later.
During the Civitas poll luncheon a consensus seemed to form that Bush is losing support among his Republican base, and that’s why his numbers continue to decline. One reason why is the recent immigration reform bill. A number of questions in the poll show that North Carolinians are very much against any form of perceived amnesty.
The Civitas poll also tested Congressman Brad Miller against Senator Elizabeth Dole. In a Senate race match-up Dole leads 46% to 31%. During the discussion, Republican consultant Ballard Everett was quick to note that Dole was under 50%; not a good sign for an incumbent.
The poll also found that most voters don’t know much, if anything, about Brad Miller. Miller had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 14/10, whit 38% with no opinion, and 38% unaware.
More on the Civitas poll later.
Sneak peek at tomorrow's results
Tomorrow PPP will be releasing the complete results of our latest North Carolina poll conducted last night. The poll will include approval ratings for President Bush and Senator Dole, as well as two new hypothetical match-ups between Senator Dole and Democrats Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore.
The results also include 12 possible Presidential match-ups between Democrats Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama and Republicans Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Here is a sneak peek at some of the results.
Clinton 43%
Giuliani 47%
Edwards 46%
Giuliani 45%
Obama 42%
Giuliani 46%
The results also include 12 possible Presidential match-ups between Democrats Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama and Republicans Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Here is a sneak peek at some of the results.
Clinton 43%
Giuliani 47%
Edwards 46%
Giuliani 45%
Obama 42%
Giuliani 46%
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
June Tracking Graphs
Here is an update of our tracking poll graphs using only PPP data. Civitas' lastest results will be released tomorrow.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
South Carolina results confirmed
Earlier in June PPP released its own poll of the South Carolina Presidential Primaries. The results were unique. We were the first pollster to find Fred Thompson leading South Carolina Republican Primary and we were one of only a few pollsters to have Barack Obama leading the Democrats.
Now a new Mason-Dixon poll of South Carolina confirms those results.
Republicans PPP M-D
Thompson 27% 25%
Giuliani 14% 21%
Romney 16% 11%
McCain 15% 7%
Democrats PPP M-D
Obama 34% 34%
Clinton 31% 25%
Edwards 15% 12%
Now a new Mason-Dixon poll of South Carolina confirms those results.
Republicans PPP M-D
Thompson 27% 25%
Giuliani 14% 21%
Romney 16% 11%
McCain 15% 7%
Democrats PPP M-D
Obama 34% 34%
Clinton 31% 25%
Edwards 15% 12%
Friday, June 15, 2007
Rural voters key to NC-11?
Much has been made this week of a new poll showing support for Republicans slipping among rural voters. See here, here and here, with a release here, analysis here, and the full poll here.
Over at The Political Junkies they point out a nugget of analysis that is North Carolina specific. Quoting TPJ quoting Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research:
"At present, the Democrats enjoy a 46 – 44 percent margin in named trial heats. Most notably, looking only a districts that switched parties in 2006, the Democratic margin grows to 56 – 34 percent (e.g., Kansas 2, Iowa 2 and North Carolina 11). While the sample size here is fairly small, it appears it will be a severe challenge for Republicans to reclaim these seats."
Over at The Political Junkies they point out a nugget of analysis that is North Carolina specific. Quoting TPJ quoting Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research:
"At present, the Democrats enjoy a 46 – 44 percent margin in named trial heats. Most notably, looking only a districts that switched parties in 2006, the Democratic margin grows to 56 – 34 percent (e.g., Kansas 2, Iowa 2 and North Carolina 11). While the sample size here is fairly small, it appears it will be a severe challenge for Republicans to reclaim these seats."
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