Dole Campaign Releases Poll

Hat-tip to Under the Dome. Click here for the polling memo. Here are the highlights according to the memo:

• Only 28% of voters believe North Carolina is heading in the right direction
• 61% approval rating for Dole
• 59% have a favorable impression of her
• 45% of North Carolina voters have a favorable impression of Senator Hillary Clinton
• 49% of voters have a favorable impression of Senator John Edwards
• 42% have a favorable impression of President George W Bush
• Voters disapprove of both Republicans (61% disapprove) and Democrats (51% disapprove) in Congress

The poll was conducted by Voter Consumer Research between June 19-21 and consists of 500 registered voters.

The 61% approval rating is far from the 46% rating we released this morning. The polling memo only lists 9 questions. But these type of polls usually have between 25 and 50 questions. I'm suspicious that there were many other questions in the poll and those may have impacted the approval rating.

Elizabeth Dole 43, Grier Martin 37

Results from our latest poll released today. Click here for complete results.

Elizabeth Dole 43%
Grier Martin 37%

Elizabeth Dole 43%
Kay Hagan 27%

From our press release:

“To compensate for the extremely low name recognition of state legislators, we added a short description of Martin and Hagan to the survey,” explained Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Martin was described as a “37 year-old two-term legislator” and “veteran of the War in Afghanistan,” while Hagan was a “five-term State Senator” and “chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.”

“Grier Martin, or his profile, does very well against Senator Dole,” said Debnam. “If he were to enter the race he could be even more competitive than other Democrats we have tested.”

More results:

Elizabeth Dole 46%
Elaine Marshall 35%

Dole Approval

Approve 46%
Disapprove 40%

Bush Approval

Approve 35%
Disapprove 61%

Jack Murphy for Lt. Governor

Robert P at BlueNC made an interested suggestion for our next primary tracking poll. He suggested adding the fictional name "Jack Murphy" to our next Lieutenant Governor tracking poll and hypothesized he would get 5-9%, putting him in the thick of the race. Robert's probably right.

At the moment none of the Lt. Gov. candidates are well known statewide. For the past 5 months, the five candidates have hovered around 10% each, while 60% of Democratic primary voters are undecided. That pattern is likely to continue until the candidates start spending money.

So why exactly are we polling the Lt. Gov. race this far out from Primary Day? We think it will be worth it once the campaign heats up, and especially after the primary. We will have established a long trend line for a low intensity statewide race-- something that hasn't been done in North Carolina before. That should prove valuable in analyzing the dynamics of the race. We will be able to see when voters start to make up their minds. Does that correspond to when people begin spending money? Will TV ads make a difference? Etc. Etc.

We will also begin tracking other council-of-state primaries once the candidate fields take shape in each party. The Republican and Democratic races for State Treasurer have started to come together in the last month, maybe we can start tracking that race by August.

Carolina Issues Poll

NC Policy Watch came out with a new poll today, conducted by Public Policy Polling. The survey is of 504 likely North Carolina voters and was conducted on July 5.

Click here for analysis.
Click here for press release.
Click here for complete results.

By Rob Schofield

Quick Take:

* NC Policy Watch, North Carolina’s leading provider of commentary and analysis on state public policy issues, released the latest edition of its Carolina Issues Poll today.
* According to the survey of likely voters throughout the state, North Carolinians strongly oppose a plan favored by state Senate leaders to cut income taxes on the wealthiest North Carolinians, but support extending the quarter cent sales tax hike first adopted in 2001.
* The poll also gauged voter attitudes on other state tax issues including an earned income tax credit and proposals to tax real estate transfers and realtor fees, as well as the issue of public subsidies for private colleges and universities.

Trendlines

For fun...



*I resized the Democratic Governor graph so you can see the changes better. It slightly exaggerates the changes compared to the other 3 graphs.

Who's talking about our latest poll?

Daily Kos
WRAL
The Hedgehog Report
Free Republic
MyDD
Real Clear Politics
Virginians for Fred Thompson
Top of the Ticket (LA Times)

Edwards slipping in home state?

Here are some selections from our analysis of the latest primary tracking poll. The bold parts sum up my thoughts on Edwards slipping into a tie with Clinton and Obama.

The Democratic Presidential race is tightening up, with this month’s poll showing a tie among the top three Democratic candidates. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both garner 27% support, while John Edwards has 26%. John Edwards’ support has continued to slide in North Carolina since a strong showing in April following the announcement of the recurrence of his wife’s cancer. The Edwards’ campaign has had a few media missteps in the last three months (his home, haircuts and hedge fund). Those problems coupled with Clinton and Obama winning the fundraising battle, could explain his drift and their growth in the poll.

Perhaps more importantly, Democratic Party demographics are against him. Women and African-Americans make up a significant majority of Democratic primary voters. Yet Edwards performs best among men and whites.

Not surprisingly Hillary Clinton leads among women and in the last month Obama has seen a surge in African American support. In July he received the support of 59% of blacks polled, fourteen percentage points higher than last month. Obama’s support from blacks has continued to rise over the seven months we have been tracking...

...It is important to note that Edwards performs much better in North Carolina than in national polls, where the latest poll averages have him in the low teens. His strength in North Carolina has waned mirroring national polling trends, fundraising, and punditry analysis. His success in North Carolina may depend upon his national success. If he remains a viable top-tier candidate, North Carolina will likely continue to support its native son. However, if his nomination becomes improbable his Tar Heel State supporters might drift to Clinton or Obama.

Three-way tie among Democrats in NC

Here are the results from the July Primary Tracking Poll. Complete results including crosstabs here.

Democratic President

Clinton 27%
Obama 27%
Edwards 26%

Democratic Governor

Perdue 34%
Moore 30%

Republican President

Thompson 34%
Giuliani 15%
Gingrich 13%
McCain 7%
Romney 6%

Republican Governor

Graham 23%
Orr 9%
Smith 9%

East tops West in BBQ Battle

Here are the particulars from PPP’s latest poll. Happy 4th of July!

Favorite Summer Vacation Spot

Beach 51%
Mountains 28%

Favorite Barbeque

Eastern 47%
Western 29%

License Plate Lettering

Old Blue 32%
New Red 26%

Favorite Pro Team

Panthers 49%
Hurricanes 14%
Bobcats 10%

Do you follow NASCAR?

Yes 34%
No 66%

Favorite local fruit

Strawberries 37%
Watermelon 21%
Peaches 16%
Blueberries 13%

Vacation in NC or out-of-state

North Carolina 52%
Out-of-state 48%

Favorite College Team

UNC 33%
NC State 17%
Duke 12%
Wake Forest 7%
ECU 6%

Pollster Profile: American Viewpoint

Last week we reported on a survey conducted for the NC Center for Voter Education by the polling company American Viewpoint. American Viewpoint is a national Republican polling firm located in Alexandria, VA. The company’s founder and president is Linda DiVall, a veteran of Republican campaigns and leader in developing Republican strategies for women and health care issues.

American Viewpoint’s political client list includes big names like Bush-Cheney ’04, Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich. They have worked for numerous current and former Senators and Congressman. They have also done work for the Log Cabin Republicans and the Republican Majority for Choice.

North Carolina ties include working for former State Rep. Richard Morgan and Elizabeth Dole’s Presidential Campaign.

The non-political client list is a mixed bag of corporations and advocacy groups that span the ideological divide (for example, AARP, American Medical Association, AT&T, CBS News, NEA and Planned Parenthood).

The polling for the NC Center for Voter Education appears to have been lead by Randall Gutermuth, the Director of Political Affairs for American Viewpoint. Gutermuth has his own impressive list of Republican Senators, Governors and Congressman and corporate clients and was named a “Rising Star” by Campaigns & Elections magazine in 2005.