There is a lot of interesting data in the Elon Poll on the upcoming 2008 US Senate race. According to them Dole’s approval rating is 50.4% approve, 24.7% disapprove.
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 9.9
DISAPPROVE 14.8
APPROVE 38.0
STRONGLY APPROVE 12.4
PPP's latest approval number for Dole was 45%. The difference between residents and likely voters could make up that difference, but PPP found many more respondents willing to say they disapproved of Dole-- 40%.
Strangely, they also asked whether or not respondents were satisfied with Dole's representation of the state. Not sure what's the difference between approval and satisfaction, but 53.2% were satisfied, and 28% were dissatisfied.
Now let me quote directly from the Elon press release:
Respondents indicated various levels of satisfaction with Dole’s representation of North Carolinians on public policy issues. Those indicating they were satisfied or very satisfied:
* Family Values: 54 percent
* Education: 47 percent
* Transportation: 40 percent
* Economy: 39 percent
* Political Corruption: 35 percent
* The Iraq War: 32 percent
* Health Care Costs: 32 percent
* Immigration: 28 percent
When considering what issues will influence their vote for U.S. Senator next year, respondents gave the following answers:
* The Iraq War: 78 percent
* Economy: 76 percent
* Health Care Costs: 75 percent
* Immigration: 73 percent
* Taxes: 72 percent
* Education: 72 percent
* Family Values: 66 percent
* Political Corruption: 65 percent
* Transportation: 37 percent
What this tells me is that the issues that North Carolinians are caring about when they pick a US Senator are exactly the issues that they are least satisfied about when it comes to Senator Dole; especially the Iraq War, but also the economy, health care, and even immigration. That cannot be good for an incumbent.
Finally, the most important question:
Do you plan to vote [for or against] Elizabeth Dole as U.S. Senator from North Carolina?
AGAINST 26.0
FOR 35.3
TOO EARLY TO TELL (v) 18.5
DON'T KNOW/ NOT SURE (v) 18.9
REFUSED (v) 1.2
I don't like adding the "too early to tell" choice. That dilutes the poll results. Nevertheless, only 35% say they are surely going to vote for Dole. That is WELL BELOW the 50% mark and very dangerous for an incumbent. Democrats ought to be optimistic with this result.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Elon Poll: Governor
Nothing surprising to be found here. 35.1% of North Carolina residents say they intend to vote for a Democrat for Governor, while 32.3% say they will vote for a Republican.
Of the people who say they intend to vote Democratic, 35.1% support Beverly Perdue and 27.3% prefer Richard Moore. That’s perfectly in line with our polling on the race.
Among Republican voters… 11.8% support Bill Graham, 10.9% support Bob Orr, and 10.6% support Fred Smith. That closely matches the latest Civitas poll, but is different from PPP polling on the Republican primary, which has Graham with a stronger lead.
Of the people who say they intend to vote Democratic, 35.1% support Beverly Perdue and 27.3% prefer Richard Moore. That’s perfectly in line with our polling on the race.
Among Republican voters… 11.8% support Bill Graham, 10.9% support Bob Orr, and 10.6% support Fred Smith. That closely matches the latest Civitas poll, but is different from PPP polling on the Republican primary, which has Graham with a stronger lead.
Elon Poll: President
The latest Elon Poll is out. Click here for the news release and here for the results. You can see some analysis already at Capital Beat.
There is good news for the Democratic Party in the Presidential election. 38% of North Carolina residents say they plan on voting for the Democratic candidate for President, while 34.3% will vote for the Republican. Starting with a slight advantage would be a major boost to the Democrats in a normally “red state.”
In the Democratic Primary Hillary Clinton is a big winner.
HILLARY CLINTON 37.4
JOHN EDWARDS 18.0
BARACK OBAMA 17.7
JOSEPH BIDEN 3.7
BILL RICHARDSON 1.3
DENNIS KUCINICH 0.5
Note, however, that these results consist of only North Carolina residents who say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for President. That is NOT the same as people who are LIKELY to vote in the Democratic Primary in May.
In the Republican Primary Fred Thompson comes out on top.
FRED THOMPSON 27.9
RUDY GIULIANI 21.0
JOHN MCCAIN 12.2
MITT ROMNEY 8.4
MIKE HUCKABEE 2.0
RON PAUL 1.4
SAM BROWNBACK 0.4
TOM TANCREDO 0.4
The same cautions that exist for the Democratic results, exists for Republicans too, though these numbers are very similar to Republican results we see coming from PPP and Civitas.
The poll was conducted Sept. 24-27 and consisted of 664 North Carolina residents. More on the Governor and Senate campaign results in the Elon Poll later.
There is good news for the Democratic Party in the Presidential election. 38% of North Carolina residents say they plan on voting for the Democratic candidate for President, while 34.3% will vote for the Republican. Starting with a slight advantage would be a major boost to the Democrats in a normally “red state.”
In the Democratic Primary Hillary Clinton is a big winner.
HILLARY CLINTON 37.4
JOHN EDWARDS 18.0
BARACK OBAMA 17.7
JOSEPH BIDEN 3.7
BILL RICHARDSON 1.3
DENNIS KUCINICH 0.5
Note, however, that these results consist of only North Carolina residents who say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for President. That is NOT the same as people who are LIKELY to vote in the Democratic Primary in May.
In the Republican Primary Fred Thompson comes out on top.
FRED THOMPSON 27.9
RUDY GIULIANI 21.0
JOHN MCCAIN 12.2
MITT ROMNEY 8.4
MIKE HUCKABEE 2.0
RON PAUL 1.4
SAM BROWNBACK 0.4
TOM TANCREDO 0.4
The same cautions that exist for the Democratic results, exists for Republicans too, though these numbers are very similar to Republican results we see coming from PPP and Civitas.
The poll was conducted Sept. 24-27 and consisted of 664 North Carolina residents. More on the Governor and Senate campaign results in the Elon Poll later.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Pollster Profile: Fallon Research
The Triangle Community Coalition hired Ohio-based Fallon Research and Communications to conduct their latest poll. I honestly can’t find much out there about Fallon Research aside from their website. Most of their work appears to be on referendums for taxes, bonds, and land use.
Here is how the website describes their past clients: “developers, citizens groups, real estate companies, home building associations, apartment associations, REALTOR® associations, zoning law firms, environmental groups and engineering firms.” This article describes them as a Republican polling firm, but I don’t see any other evidence of Fallon Research being explicitly partisan.
In fact the bio of founder Paul Fallon intentionally omits references to political parties. For example, “He previously served as director of public opinion research for a statewide political party.”
Fallon Research appears to be a relatively new polling firm, but with lots of experience in the areas of housing and growth.
Here is how the website describes their past clients: “developers, citizens groups, real estate companies, home building associations, apartment associations, REALTOR® associations, zoning law firms, environmental groups and engineering firms.” This article describes them as a Republican polling firm, but I don’t see any other evidence of Fallon Research being explicitly partisan.
In fact the bio of founder Paul Fallon intentionally omits references to political parties. For example, “He previously served as director of public opinion research for a statewide political party.”
Fallon Research appears to be a relatively new polling firm, but with lots of experience in the areas of housing and growth.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
TCC Survey on growth in Raleigh-Cary
The Triangle Community Coalition has released a poll of Raleigh and Cary municipal election voters. You can read about it here and get the results here (PDF). After reading through it the strongest message that comes through is that Raleigh and Cary voters are happy. The positively rate the quality of life and the state of the local economy; they think their cities are generally headed in the right direction; and they strongly approve of the work being done by their respective city councils.
Here is the question that I was happy to see: Cary = Red, Raleigh = Blue
I think this chart sums up really well how Raleigh and Cary feel about growth. But I am not sure how this plays out in the upcoming Raleigh City Council elections, because I think all of the candidates fit into the “encourage growth, but manage it more carefully” category. The issues are really which controls to use. For example, some favor impact fees as a way to manage the costs of growth, while others do not.
(I don’t know enough about the Cary elections to comment intelligently. If someone would like to write a guest post about Cary elections and the implications of polling data, I would be happy to post it here.)
I will take issue with the following question. Which of the following would you say is the biggest benefit that comes from housing growth in your area?
20% A larger base of taxpayers to share the tax burden
17% Lots of jobs and a strong economy
16% Better choices of housing and places to live
16% More diversity of people and cultures
7% Better schools and more education opportunities
6% More shopping and access to conveniences
3% Recreational and entertainment opportunities
6% No benefits from growth (volunteered)
5% Other
The TCC spins the result of this question to suggest that voters see low taxes as a benefit of growth, but I don’t think that’s true. People like lower taxes, so when the pollster provides the choice of “lower taxes” as an answer to this question, it’s not surprising that many people chose it.
Besides, I don’t think that answer itself, a larger tax base, is true either. Sure the tax base is larger, but overall there are more taxes needed to be collected. The more people who move here, the higher taxes are going to be for everyone, so that we can catch up on the infrastructure needs likes schools, roads, water and sewer, and parks. Raleigh is relative low-tax compared to other similarly sized urban areas, and especially compared to other fast growing urban areas.
I’d have liked to see the opposite question asked too. What is the biggest downfall from housing growth?
The survey was conducted by Fallon Research and Communications between July 22 and 24. The survey consisted of 407 registered voters in Raleigh and Cary who have a history of voting in municipal elections.
Here is the question that I was happy to see: Cary = Red, Raleigh = Blue
I think this chart sums up really well how Raleigh and Cary feel about growth. But I am not sure how this plays out in the upcoming Raleigh City Council elections, because I think all of the candidates fit into the “encourage growth, but manage it more carefully” category. The issues are really which controls to use. For example, some favor impact fees as a way to manage the costs of growth, while others do not.
(I don’t know enough about the Cary elections to comment intelligently. If someone would like to write a guest post about Cary elections and the implications of polling data, I would be happy to post it here.)
I will take issue with the following question. Which of the following would you say is the biggest benefit that comes from housing growth in your area?
20% A larger base of taxpayers to share the tax burden
17% Lots of jobs and a strong economy
16% Better choices of housing and places to live
16% More diversity of people and cultures
7% Better schools and more education opportunities
6% More shopping and access to conveniences
3% Recreational and entertainment opportunities
6% No benefits from growth (volunteered)
5% Other
The TCC spins the result of this question to suggest that voters see low taxes as a benefit of growth, but I don’t think that’s true. People like lower taxes, so when the pollster provides the choice of “lower taxes” as an answer to this question, it’s not surprising that many people chose it.
Besides, I don’t think that answer itself, a larger tax base, is true either. Sure the tax base is larger, but overall there are more taxes needed to be collected. The more people who move here, the higher taxes are going to be for everyone, so that we can catch up on the infrastructure needs likes schools, roads, water and sewer, and parks. Raleigh is relative low-tax compared to other similarly sized urban areas, and especially compared to other fast growing urban areas.
I’d have liked to see the opposite question asked too. What is the biggest downfall from housing growth?
The survey was conducted by Fallon Research and Communications between July 22 and 24. The survey consisted of 407 registered voters in Raleigh and Cary who have a history of voting in municipal elections.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
N&O City Election Coverage
I've always been critical of the coverage of local elections by the News & Observer. Too few articles and very rarely do they actually get to the root of the political issues at hand-- something that any Raleigh politico could explain in a few minutes. It reminds me a lot of the coverage of student body president campaigns in college. This morning was different, N&O reporter David Bracken gave us a rather interesting story about Raleigh Council at-large candidate Mary Ann Baldwin's battle with the blogosphere.
It got me thinking of why hadn't the N&O reported on our Raleigh City Council poll. Under the Dome reports on us all the time. Why not WakePol or Triangle Politics?
Well I got my answer a few minutes later. See this post in WakePol. Not exactly the answer I was looking for. Here is my response in the comments.
Regardless of whether you are a fan of polls or not, they are still news. And I think your readers would be very interested in the results. Not only do the polls tell you who is "winning" or "losing" but they tell you what the public is thinking on the issues at hand.
"Man on the street" interviews can only give you so much information, while public opinion polls gives you an accurate assessment of the attitudes of the entire population...
Thanks for the link David. If anyone wants a direct link to our poll, instead of trying to find it on our website, it's here.
It got me thinking of why hadn't the N&O reported on our Raleigh City Council poll. Under the Dome reports on us all the time. Why not WakePol or Triangle Politics?
Well I got my answer a few minutes later. See this post in WakePol. Not exactly the answer I was looking for. Here is my response in the comments.
Regardless of whether you are a fan of polls or not, they are still news. And I think your readers would be very interested in the results. Not only do the polls tell you who is "winning" or "losing" but they tell you what the public is thinking on the issues at hand.
"Man on the street" interviews can only give you so much information, while public opinion polls gives you an accurate assessment of the attitudes of the entire population...
Thanks for the link David. If anyone wants a direct link to our poll, instead of trying to find it on our website, it's here.
Raleigh City Council: A closer look
After diving into the numbers for Elizabeth Dole's reelection campaign I thought it'd be fun to do the same with the Raleigh City Council survey. I produced some new crosstabs which I thought were especially interesting. Take a look at the some of the "issue questions" we posed on our last city council survey, cross tabbed by the three contested elections.
At-Large (first choice only)
District A
District B
I guess what is most interesting are the inconsistencies. For example, a majority of the supporters of Mary Ann Baldwin, Paul Anderson, and Jessie Taliaferro and a plurality of the supporters of Tommy Craven say they are more likely to support a candidate who will raise the impact fee, yet those candidates are on record saying that the current impact fee is fine.
All candidates' supporters say they are less likely to support a candidate that receives large donations from developers. The N&O reported today on which candidates are receiving the most from the development industry. Some have pointed specifically to Baldwin, Anderson and Taliaferro as developer favorites, while the Triangle Community Coalition's straw poll (PDF) picked Baldwin, Will Best, Craven and Taliaferro. Even the other strong candidates Russ Stephenson, Nancy McFarlane and Rodger Koopman have gotten donations from developers of one kind or the other. But will major financial support from the development industry be a major issue in the campaign? Our polling certainly shows it as a liability and the N&O story this morning might be the start of more talk on the issue.
The Sierra Club has endorsed Stephenson, McFarlane and Koopman. Most of their supporters favor the Sierra Club endorsement, but even some say they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Sierra Club. For example, will the 25% of Stephenson supporters who don't like the Sierra Club endorsement change their minds when/if they learn of the endorsement? Who knows.
Also of interest are the undecided voters. In the at-large race a strong plurality of the undecided voters like candidates who want higher impact fees, and a weaker plurality like the Sierra Club endorsement.
In District A a smaller plurality (43%) like higher impact fees, while 32% don't. And unlike the city at-large, a plurality of undecided voters in District A don't favor the Sierra Club endorsement.
In District B there is relative equal attitudes between those undecideds who favor higher impact fees, those who do not favor them, and those who say it won't make a difference in their vote. A small majority also say that the Sierra Club won't matter in their choice.
That's not terrific news for strong challengers McFarlane and Koopman who have made impact fees a central focus of their platforms. They need to collect large majorities of the undecided vote to reach 50%. However opportunities do exist to make hay with the developer issue. Undecideds in all the races, as do all voters surveyed, don't like large donations from developers.
Update (9/26/07): Note that the Triangle Community Coalition straw poll is not a scientific measurement, but a product of those people who showed up at the TCC pig pickin and chose to vote after listening to candidate speeches. I don't want anyone to think it was an endorsement or a true poll. It's just a straw poll. Thanks, Chris.
At-Large (first choice only)
District A
District B
I guess what is most interesting are the inconsistencies. For example, a majority of the supporters of Mary Ann Baldwin, Paul Anderson, and Jessie Taliaferro and a plurality of the supporters of Tommy Craven say they are more likely to support a candidate who will raise the impact fee, yet those candidates are on record saying that the current impact fee is fine.
All candidates' supporters say they are less likely to support a candidate that receives large donations from developers. The N&O reported today on which candidates are receiving the most from the development industry. Some have pointed specifically to Baldwin, Anderson and Taliaferro as developer favorites, while the Triangle Community Coalition's straw poll (PDF) picked Baldwin, Will Best, Craven and Taliaferro. Even the other strong candidates Russ Stephenson, Nancy McFarlane and Rodger Koopman have gotten donations from developers of one kind or the other. But will major financial support from the development industry be a major issue in the campaign? Our polling certainly shows it as a liability and the N&O story this morning might be the start of more talk on the issue.
The Sierra Club has endorsed Stephenson, McFarlane and Koopman. Most of their supporters favor the Sierra Club endorsement, but even some say they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Sierra Club. For example, will the 25% of Stephenson supporters who don't like the Sierra Club endorsement change their minds when/if they learn of the endorsement? Who knows.
Also of interest are the undecided voters. In the at-large race a strong plurality of the undecided voters like candidates who want higher impact fees, and a weaker plurality like the Sierra Club endorsement.
In District A a smaller plurality (43%) like higher impact fees, while 32% don't. And unlike the city at-large, a plurality of undecided voters in District A don't favor the Sierra Club endorsement.
In District B there is relative equal attitudes between those undecideds who favor higher impact fees, those who do not favor them, and those who say it won't make a difference in their vote. A small majority also say that the Sierra Club won't matter in their choice.
That's not terrific news for strong challengers McFarlane and Koopman who have made impact fees a central focus of their platforms. They need to collect large majorities of the undecided vote to reach 50%. However opportunities do exist to make hay with the developer issue. Undecideds in all the races, as do all voters surveyed, don't like large donations from developers.
Update (9/26/07): Note that the Triangle Community Coalition straw poll is not a scientific measurement, but a product of those people who showed up at the TCC pig pickin and chose to vote after listening to candidate speeches. I don't want anyone to think it was an endorsement or a true poll. It's just a straw poll. Thanks, Chris.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Dole vs. Martin: A closer look
A peek inside the numbers tells us about Elizabeth Dole’s potential weaknesses, where Grier Martin could make gains and why this race may be closer than it appears.
According to our last survey, Dole topped Martin 45% to 30%. At first glance it may look like a strong 15 point lead. But let’s take a deeper look. Martin received support from only 45% of Democrats, while 32% were undecided. Among African-American voters Martin only garnered 37%, while 38% were undecided. Essentially, Martin’s percentage was much lower because he doesn’t have statewide name recognition. If all the Democrats- especially African-Americans- who usually vote Democratic do support Martin (which is likely) this automatically becomes closer to a 45%-40% race, not 45%-30%.
This is where the informed vote question is helpful. If Martin were to run an effective campaign that was able to communicate simply his biography to the voters it could have a big effect. Take a look these crosstabs of the Dole vs. Martin question with and without the biography.
Martin’s biography shores up support from Democrats (including the support of 67% of African-Americans). It also completely flips the unaffiliated support, while Republican attitudes remain largely unchanged. The biography also makes big gains by gender. Support for Martin goes up 15 points among men with the biography and up 20 points among women. With the biography Martin leads Dole by 11 percent among women.
Dole doesn’t need to worry about Republican support. Even the rosiest portrait of Grier Martin doesn’t persuade them. Additionally, 70% of Republicans still approve of the President’s handling of the War in Iraq. That’s a tough nut to crack for any Democrat. However, the unaffiliated support and support from women that should be an advantage for a female candidate with a moderate image, like Dole, is surprisingly soft and susceptible to a Democrat with a biography like Grier Martin. Dole would be smart to worry less about her Republican base and work hard to project a moderate image.
According to our last survey, Dole topped Martin 45% to 30%. At first glance it may look like a strong 15 point lead. But let’s take a deeper look. Martin received support from only 45% of Democrats, while 32% were undecided. Among African-American voters Martin only garnered 37%, while 38% were undecided. Essentially, Martin’s percentage was much lower because he doesn’t have statewide name recognition. If all the Democrats- especially African-Americans- who usually vote Democratic do support Martin (which is likely) this automatically becomes closer to a 45%-40% race, not 45%-30%.
This is where the informed vote question is helpful. If Martin were to run an effective campaign that was able to communicate simply his biography to the voters it could have a big effect. Take a look these crosstabs of the Dole vs. Martin question with and without the biography.
Martin’s biography shores up support from Democrats (including the support of 67% of African-Americans). It also completely flips the unaffiliated support, while Republican attitudes remain largely unchanged. The biography also makes big gains by gender. Support for Martin goes up 15 points among men with the biography and up 20 points among women. With the biography Martin leads Dole by 11 percent among women.
Dole doesn’t need to worry about Republican support. Even the rosiest portrait of Grier Martin doesn’t persuade them. Additionally, 70% of Republicans still approve of the President’s handling of the War in Iraq. That’s a tough nut to crack for any Democrat. However, the unaffiliated support and support from women that should be an advantage for a female candidate with a moderate image, like Dole, is surprisingly soft and susceptible to a Democrat with a biography like Grier Martin. Dole would be smart to worry less about her Republican base and work hard to project a moderate image.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Blogtalk
A smattering of posts on PPP's latest polls.
Elizabeth Dole vs. Dean Smith
The Hedgehog Report
TPM Election Central
Senate 2008 Guru
Leftword
MyDD
BlueNC 1
BlueNC 2
Under the Dome
Isaac Hunter's Tavern
Raleigh City Council
New Raleigh
BelowtheBeltline
Elizabeth Dole vs. Dean Smith
The Hedgehog Report
TPM Election Central
Senate 2008 Guru
Leftword
MyDD
BlueNC 1
BlueNC 2
Under the Dome
Isaac Hunter's Tavern
Raleigh City Council
New Raleigh
BelowtheBeltline
No good news for local tax options
According to the Civitas Poll proponents of a county transfer tax or sales tax have an uphill battle to fight.
Would you support or oppose a referendum on the ballot in your County to increase the sales tax to help pay for local services?
Yes 32%
No 60%
Would you support or oppose a referendum on the ballot in your County to increase the transfer tax to help pay for local services?
Yes 24%
No 53%
But of course these are not state-wide ballot referenda, but only a few counties will be having such initiatives. This week the N&O reported that 16 counties will have transfer tax referenda this fall and 16 counties will have sales tax referenda. Five counties are having both, though a county may only impose one or the other. The local situation is going to have an impact on people's views towards these new taxes, but I think they will all start out behind. Nobody likes new taxes.
Note that if you explained that the money went to pay for schools, then the number of people saying "yes" would go up.
Update (9/24/07): Thanks new raleigh for pointing out the mistake. The second question should say "transfer tax" not "sales tax."
Would you support or oppose a referendum on the ballot in your County to increase the sales tax to help pay for local services?
Yes 32%
No 60%
Would you support or oppose a referendum on the ballot in your County to increase the transfer tax to help pay for local services?
Yes 24%
No 53%
But of course these are not state-wide ballot referenda, but only a few counties will be having such initiatives. This week the N&O reported that 16 counties will have transfer tax referenda this fall and 16 counties will have sales tax referenda. Five counties are having both, though a county may only impose one or the other. The local situation is going to have an impact on people's views towards these new taxes, but I think they will all start out behind. Nobody likes new taxes.
Note that if you explained that the money went to pay for schools, then the number of people saying "yes" would go up.
Update (9/24/07): Thanks new raleigh for pointing out the mistake. The second question should say "transfer tax" not "sales tax."
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