If there was any question Nancy Pelosi's a liability for Democrats across the country this should put it to rest- even in California voters have an unfavorable opinion of her and would like to see her replaced as Speaker.
Only 38% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of her while 48% view her unfavorably. Independents see her negatively by a more than 2:1 margin, 62/27. And Republicans (87%) are considerably more unified in their dislike of her than Democrats (62%) are in seeing her positively.
We found yesterday that Californians were planning to vote Democratic for Congress this fall by a 51-38 margin. But when it comes to keeping Pelosi as Speaker those numbers pretty much reverse with only 38% of voters saying they'd like her to continue while 50% think it's time for her to be replaced.
Running against Pelosi wasn't an effective strategy for Republican candidates in 2008 but if voters in her home state don't even want her continue as Speaker it's hard to imagine there's much of anywhere in the country where folks do want her to.
Full results here
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Primaries were a bad thing for GOP
The strong numbers Ron Johnson's been posting in Wisconsin polls this week are reflective of a broader trend: the Republican Senate candidates who didn't have to go through bruising primaries this year are much more popular than the ones who did. Johnson has the best favorability numbers of any GOP contender we've polled on in the last couple months at a +12 spread (46/34).
With the exception of Rand Paul the other five Republican candidates with positive favorability numbers also avoided serious primary opposition. John Raese in West Virginia has the second strongest numbers at 41/35 (+6.) The other three are folks strongly favored to win Senate races even though their states went for Barack Obama in 2008- Marco Rubio in Florida, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Rob Portman in Ohio.
On the other end of the popularity spectrum are the five nominees who had arguably the most competitive primaries. Christine O'Donnell is the least popular followed by Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, and Kelly Ayotte. There's no doubt Republican chances looked better in Delaware, Nevada, Alaska, and New Hampshire before the tough primary contests and the verdict is still out on Colorado.
Contested primaries aren't always a bad thing but when you look at which GOP candidates voters like this year and which ones they don't it's pretty clear they were indeed a bad thing for Republicans at least this time around.
Here are the favorability numbers:
With the exception of Rand Paul the other five Republican candidates with positive favorability numbers also avoided serious primary opposition. John Raese in West Virginia has the second strongest numbers at 41/35 (+6.) The other three are folks strongly favored to win Senate races even though their states went for Barack Obama in 2008- Marco Rubio in Florida, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Rob Portman in Ohio.
On the other end of the popularity spectrum are the five nominees who had arguably the most competitive primaries. Christine O'Donnell is the least popular followed by Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, and Kelly Ayotte. There's no doubt Republican chances looked better in Delaware, Nevada, Alaska, and New Hampshire before the tough primary contests and the verdict is still out on Colorado.
Contested primaries aren't always a bad thing but when you look at which GOP candidates voters like this year and which ones they don't it's pretty clear they were indeed a bad thing for Republicans at least this time around.
Here are the favorability numbers:
| Candidate | State | Favorability | Spread |
| Ron Johnson | Wisconsin | 46/34 | +12 |
| John Raese | West Virginia | 41/35 | +6 |
| Rand Paul | Kentucky | 45/40 | +5 |
| Marco Rubio | Florida | 40/37 | +3 |
| Pat Toomey | Pennsylvania | 36/33 | +3 |
| Rob Portman | Ohio | 29/28 | +1 |
| Roy Blunt | Missouri | 41/42 | -1 |
| Dino Rossi | Washington | 43/48 | -5 |
| Carly Fiorina | California | 34/42 | -8 |
| Mark Kirk | Illinois | 26/34 | -8 |
| Kelly Ayotte | New Hampshire | 35/47 | -12 |
| Joe Miller | Alaska | 36/52 | -16 |
| Sharron Angle | Nevada | 36/52 | -16 |
| Ken Buck | Colorado | 26/46 | -20 |
| Christine O’Donnell | Delaware | 29/50 | -21 |
Michigan Miscellaneous
-Barack Obama's approval rating with this fall's likely voters in Michigan, where he won by 16 points in 2008, is only 42%. 54% disapprove of his job performance. Part of Obama's unpopularity with this fall's voter pool is a function of many folks who voted for him in 2008 not planning to vote this year but beyond that just 79% of people who did vote for him continue to support the job he's doing, a larger degree of lost support than we're seeing for him in most states. Independents disapprove of him by a 2:1 margin, 32/64.
-Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 48-41, thanks mostly to a 44-24 advantage with independents. That can't be good news for Mark Schauer or Gary Peters, or for Democratic prospects of holding onto Bart Stupak's seat. The lack of competitiveness in the Governor's race really has the potential to stifle Democratic turnout and cause the party to lose other key races further down the ballot. What we're seeing in Michigan is a strong contrast to places like Texas and Colorado where a strong top of the ticket for Democrats has the potential to mitigate losses in other races.
-It is a very good thing for Debbie Stabenow and even Carl Levin that they don't have to stand for reelection this year. Levin's approval is a negative 40/48 spread and Stabenow's is even worse at 38/50. Independents are nearly as down on Stabenow as they are on Obama, with 60% of them disapproving of her and only 32% giving her good marks. With those kinds of numbers Stabenow seems likely to face a reelection contest in 2012 more reminiscent of her hyper competitive 2000 win than her relatively easy 2006 reelection- but if there's one thing we've learned this cycle it's that the political climate can see quite a dramatic shift in a short period of time.
Full results here
-Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 48-41, thanks mostly to a 44-24 advantage with independents. That can't be good news for Mark Schauer or Gary Peters, or for Democratic prospects of holding onto Bart Stupak's seat. The lack of competitiveness in the Governor's race really has the potential to stifle Democratic turnout and cause the party to lose other key races further down the ballot. What we're seeing in Michigan is a strong contrast to places like Texas and Colorado where a strong top of the ticket for Democrats has the potential to mitigate losses in other races.
-It is a very good thing for Debbie Stabenow and even Carl Levin that they don't have to stand for reelection this year. Levin's approval is a negative 40/48 spread and Stabenow's is even worse at 38/50. Independents are nearly as down on Stabenow as they are on Obama, with 60% of them disapproving of her and only 32% giving her good marks. With those kinds of numbers Stabenow seems likely to face a reelection contest in 2012 more reminiscent of her hyper competitive 2000 win than her relatively easy 2006 reelection- but if there's one thing we've learned this cycle it's that the political climate can see quite a dramatic shift in a short period of time.
Full results here
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Joe Manchin and Robert Byrd's Legacy
As far as I can tell from perusing his YouTube account, Joe Manchin has aired only two ads in the West Virginia Senate race so far, and both are negative pieces that take John Raese head-on. Neither mentions that Manchin himself has called this election when normally one wouldn’t have been scheduled because of the death of the beloved Robert Byrd, the longest-serving Senator in history.
68% of likely voters in this fall’s election approve of the work Byrd did in the Senate, and 52% want his successor—Manchin or Raese—to continue his legacy. Right now, the problem for Manchin is that, despite him being incredibly popular as governor, Raese seems to be successfully framing the race as one between himself, a conservative, and an Obama Democrat, Manchin, at a time and in a state where Obama and the national Democrats are persona non grata. If voters see Manchin as a Washington liberal, he loses. If they see him as a conservative, populist Byrd Democrat, he wins.
Right now, Manchin is earning only 59% of the Byrd approvers, with Raese at 30%. But he gets 74% of those who want Byrd's work to go on. If by airing laudatory Byrd ads and tying his own campaign to Byrd’s legendary work for his constituents Manchin pulls that 59% to 70% of Byrd approvers, he would have a majority of the vote. He can do this just by persuading the undecideds among Byrd approvers and not even changing Raese voters’ minds. The undecideds in the race break similarly to the overall electorate--72% approve of Byrd's service, and 51% want the next senator to keep it up.
Ours was the first and, so far, only poll to show Raese on top, and it’s well within the margin of error. This could be one of those nail-biters on Election Night, but Manchin can keep this seat on Byrd’s side of the aisle if he reminds voters of the man he is vying to replace, the man they would still clearly like representing them in the upper chamber of Congress.
Full results here.
Unhappy Democrats are more likely to vote
I noticed something in our polling today that I hadn't yet this cycle. It's a well known fact that Obama voters aren't planning to show up to vote this year in the numbers that Democrats need. Beyond that, I realized today, that Obama voters who are planning to show up generally have more negative feelings toward him than Obama voters at large. And obviously the folks who voted for Obama but have soured on him are more likely to fall into the GOP column.
Our national poll last week- which is conducted with registered, rather than likely, voters- found that 88% of people who voted for Obama still approve of the job he's doing.
It's a different story with likely voters in the 16 states we've polled since switching over to LVs for our horse race polling in mid-August. Only in 3 of those states- Alaska, North Carolina, and Texas- has Obama maintained that level of popularity with people who voted for him. And in several key states where Democrats are having a lot of trouble it's dropped quite a bit.
The place where Obama's lost the largest degree of his support is West Virginia, where only 76% of his voters are still happy with him. That's why Joe Manchin appears to be in a tight race despite his high level of popularity. In Pennsylvania just 78% of his voters think he's doing a good job and there's a pretty strong sense that Democrats will lose both the Senate seat and Governorship they hold there, and quite possibly by wide margins. That 78% mark holds true in Wisconsin as well, where we need to see more polling but things are beginning to look pretty dire for the Democrats.
What these numbers suggest to me is that Democrats staying home aren't necessarily disappointed with how things have gone so far. The Democrats not voting are more pleased with how Obama's done than the Democrats who are voting. And when you're happy you simply don't have the sense of urgency about going out and voting to make something change. That complacency, more than the Republicans, is Democrats' strongest foe this year.
Here are the state by state numbers on the level of support Obama has maintained with folks who voted for him:
Our national poll last week- which is conducted with registered, rather than likely, voters- found that 88% of people who voted for Obama still approve of the job he's doing.
It's a different story with likely voters in the 16 states we've polled since switching over to LVs for our horse race polling in mid-August. Only in 3 of those states- Alaska, North Carolina, and Texas- has Obama maintained that level of popularity with people who voted for him. And in several key states where Democrats are having a lot of trouble it's dropped quite a bit.
The place where Obama's lost the largest degree of his support is West Virginia, where only 76% of his voters are still happy with him. That's why Joe Manchin appears to be in a tight race despite his high level of popularity. In Pennsylvania just 78% of his voters think he's doing a good job and there's a pretty strong sense that Democrats will lose both the Senate seat and Governorship they hold there, and quite possibly by wide margins. That 78% mark holds true in Wisconsin as well, where we need to see more polling but things are beginning to look pretty dire for the Democrats.
What these numbers suggest to me is that Democrats staying home aren't necessarily disappointed with how things have gone so far. The Democrats not voting are more pleased with how Obama's done than the Democrats who are voting. And when you're happy you simply don't have the sense of urgency about going out and voting to make something change. That complacency, more than the Republicans, is Democrats' strongest foe this year.
Here are the state by state numbers on the level of support Obama has maintained with folks who voted for him:
| State | Obama Approval with his 2008 voters |
| Alaska | 92% |
| North Carolina | 89% |
| Texas | 88% |
| Louisiana | 87% |
| Illinois | 87% |
| California | 86% |
| New Hampshire | 85% |
| Kentucky | 83% |
| Missouri | 82% |
| Ohio | 82% |
| Maine | 80% |
| Delaware | 79% |
| Florida | 78% |
| Pennsylvania | 78% |
| Wisconsin | 78% |
| West Virginia | 76% |
Other Findings from California
-Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in California 51-38. Both parties have their base pretty much locked up- 89% of Republicans say they'll vote for their party's nominee and 87% of Democrats say the same for theirs. Independents split toward the GOP but only by a 34-29 margin much smaller than the party's seeing in most states.
I don't know how much the generic ballot tells us about whether any House seats will change hands in California this year, but it does show that Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are under performing their party's base numbers even if they're still ahead. Boxer's 8 point lead and Brown's 5 point advantage run well behind the generic numbers.
-In the Lieutenant Governor's race Democratic challenger Gavin Newsom has a slight edge over Republican incumbent Abel Maldonado, 39-36. Maldonado's doing what Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina haven't shown the ability to do- win over a significant number of Democrats. Maldonado's getting 17% crossover support. Newsom's winning overall though because he's keeping it tight with independents (just a 35-31 disadvantage) and winning 11% of Republicans, which is more than Boxer or Brown can claim.
-Voters in the state remain pretty evenly divided on gay marriage with 46% saying they think it should be legal and 44% saying illegal. That tightness is pretty consistent with what we saw on the Prop 8 vote in 2008. Despite the tightness of the overall numbers it's pretty clear that there will be strong support for gay marriage with the passage of time- voters under 45 support it by a 57-35 margin.
-Proposition 20, which is intended to reduce the influence of politics in redistricting, is polling way ahead right now. It's important to note though that 41% of voters remain undecided on it. With those who have made up their minds it's ahead 42-16 and enjoys pretty broad bipartisan support- a 32 point margin with Republicans, and a 23 point one with Democrats and independents.
Full results here
I don't know how much the generic ballot tells us about whether any House seats will change hands in California this year, but it does show that Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are under performing their party's base numbers even if they're still ahead. Boxer's 8 point lead and Brown's 5 point advantage run well behind the generic numbers.
-In the Lieutenant Governor's race Democratic challenger Gavin Newsom has a slight edge over Republican incumbent Abel Maldonado, 39-36. Maldonado's doing what Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina haven't shown the ability to do- win over a significant number of Democrats. Maldonado's getting 17% crossover support. Newsom's winning overall though because he's keeping it tight with independents (just a 35-31 disadvantage) and winning 11% of Republicans, which is more than Boxer or Brown can claim.
-Voters in the state remain pretty evenly divided on gay marriage with 46% saying they think it should be legal and 44% saying illegal. That tightness is pretty consistent with what we saw on the Prop 8 vote in 2008. Despite the tightness of the overall numbers it's pretty clear that there will be strong support for gay marriage with the passage of time- voters under 45 support it by a 57-35 margin.
-Proposition 20, which is intended to reduce the influence of politics in redistricting, is polling way ahead right now. It's important to note though that 41% of voters remain undecided on it. With those who have made up their minds it's ahead 42-16 and enjoys pretty broad bipartisan support- a 32 point margin with Republicans, and a 23 point one with Democrats and independents.
Full results here
Marijuana in the California Election
PPP continues to find Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, favored to pass. The margin in this week's poll is 47/38 in favor, which does represent a tightening since July when we found it ahead 52/36. One thing that's interesting about the marijuana polling is that it really doesn't break down along party lines to the same extent most of the things we poll do. 56% of Democrats support it to 28% opposed and 30% of Republicans support it with 57% opposed. That's a lot more division within the ranks of both parties than we're seeing on a lot of stuff.
A big question to contemplate in California is whether the marijuana initiative is helping to stifle the enthusiasm gap Democrats are dealing with in most other states, particularly when it comes to intended turnout from young voters. We're seeing a much higher level of interest in this election from voters under 45 in California than in most places and those folks are highly favorable toward Proposition 19, planning to vote for it by a 54/34 margin.
Those same young voters are fueling much of the lead for Jerry Brown in the Governor's race and Barbara Boxer in the Senate- if Brown and Boxer win they may have the marijuana initiative to thank for driving turnout from folks who would otherwise have been drop off voters in a midterm. We'll do more research on what races are bringing people out the next time we poll California.
Full results here
A big question to contemplate in California is whether the marijuana initiative is helping to stifle the enthusiasm gap Democrats are dealing with in most other states, particularly when it comes to intended turnout from young voters. We're seeing a much higher level of interest in this election from voters under 45 in California than in most places and those folks are highly favorable toward Proposition 19, planning to vote for it by a 54/34 margin.
Those same young voters are fueling much of the lead for Jerry Brown in the Governor's race and Barbara Boxer in the Senate- if Brown and Boxer win they may have the marijuana initiative to thank for driving turnout from folks who would otherwise have been drop off voters in a midterm. We'll do more research on what races are bringing people out the next time we poll California.
Full results here
Looking at the Undecideds Nationally
Our most recent national poll found that among voters undecided about how they'll vote for Congress this fall the major national political figure who inspires the strongest feelings in them is Sarah Palin. I don't know that there is any sure fire strategy that will help Democrats mitigate their losses this fall but running against Palin could be it.
The undecideds are pretty ambivalent when it comes to their feelings about Barack Obama- 44% of them approve of him and 44% disapprove so he's pretty much a wash. Narrow majorities of them do like some other major Democratic figures- 55/31 favorability for Hillary Clinton, 51/28 for Michelle Obama, 52/39 for Bill Clinton. It's too bad for the party they can't send Hillary out on the campaign trail but with the remaining undecideds the First Lady and the former President should be a positive influence.
None of those folks inspire nearly as strong of feelings with this fall's swing voters as Sarah Palin though. A whooping 65% of them have an unfavorable opinion of her to only 17% who see her in a positive light. And it's not as if that's a function of the remaining undecideds strongly disliking Republicans across the board-only 41% have a negative opinion of Glenn Beck and Newt Gingrich and that falls to 33% for Mike Huckabee and just 25% for Mitt Romney.
The group of folks who haven't made up their minds yet is 14% Democrats, 21% Republicans, and 65% independents. They're not really sold on the President but they know they don't like Sarah Palin- making the Republican Party the Palin Party could help push Democratic candidates across the finish line in a lot of this year's close races.
The undecideds are pretty ambivalent when it comes to their feelings about Barack Obama- 44% of them approve of him and 44% disapprove so he's pretty much a wash. Narrow majorities of them do like some other major Democratic figures- 55/31 favorability for Hillary Clinton, 51/28 for Michelle Obama, 52/39 for Bill Clinton. It's too bad for the party they can't send Hillary out on the campaign trail but with the remaining undecideds the First Lady and the former President should be a positive influence.
None of those folks inspire nearly as strong of feelings with this fall's swing voters as Sarah Palin though. A whooping 65% of them have an unfavorable opinion of her to only 17% who see her in a positive light. And it's not as if that's a function of the remaining undecideds strongly disliking Republicans across the board-only 41% have a negative opinion of Glenn Beck and Newt Gingrich and that falls to 33% for Mike Huckabee and just 25% for Mitt Romney.
The group of folks who haven't made up their minds yet is 14% Democrats, 21% Republicans, and 65% independents. They're not really sold on the President but they know they don't like Sarah Palin- making the Republican Party the Palin Party could help push Democratic candidates across the finish line in a lot of this year's close races.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
The GOP candidates with moderates
It's a good thing for Democrats that Republican primary voters this year cared more about ideological purity than winning in the fall because the few candidates with appeal to moderates the GOP did nominate this year have done/are doing some pretty amazing things.
Out of all the Senate and Governor nominees PPP has polled on this year the only Republicans with positive numbers among moderates have been Rick Snyder, Tom Corbett, and Scott Brown:
-Snyder is viewed favorably 38/29 by voters in the middle in Michigan and has a 21 point lead in a state that Barack Obama won by 16 points.
-Corbett is narrowly viewed positively by moderates, 27/25, and is favored to win by double digits in almost every poll of the Pennsylvania Governor's race despite the state's strong blue turn in 2006 and 2008.
-Brown, whose favorability with moderates was 62/31, won the Massachusetts Senate special election by 5 points. That was a 31 point reversal from Obama's 26 point victory in the state.
The rest of the GOP class of 2010 candidates when it comes to moderates? Not too popular:
Republicans will win a lot of these races anyway because the political climate is so bad for Democrats. But they could have made things a lot easier for themselves by appealing more candidates with appeal to the center. And when you look at the bottom of this list it looks like they definitely cost themselves a Senate seat in Delaware, probably cost themselves the Governor's office in Florida, and may have cost themselves Senate seats in Nevada and Colorado by nominating candidates with limited appeal to moderates.
Out of all the Senate and Governor nominees PPP has polled on this year the only Republicans with positive numbers among moderates have been Rick Snyder, Tom Corbett, and Scott Brown:
-Snyder is viewed favorably 38/29 by voters in the middle in Michigan and has a 21 point lead in a state that Barack Obama won by 16 points.
-Corbett is narrowly viewed positively by moderates, 27/25, and is favored to win by double digits in almost every poll of the Pennsylvania Governor's race despite the state's strong blue turn in 2006 and 2008.
-Brown, whose favorability with moderates was 62/31, won the Massachusetts Senate special election by 5 points. That was a 31 point reversal from Obama's 26 point victory in the state.
The rest of the GOP class of 2010 candidates when it comes to moderates? Not too popular:
| Candidate | Office | Favorability w/Moderates |
| Terry Branstad | Iowa Governor | 37/44 (-7) |
| Mark Kirk | Illinois Senate | 23/32 (-9) |
| Paul LePage | Maine Governor | 31/41 (-10) |
| Rob Portman | Ohio Senate | 23/33 (-10) |
| Bob Ehrlich | Maryland Governor | 34/44 (-10) |
| John Stephen | New Hampshire Governor | 23/35 (-12) |
| Pat Toomey | Pennsylvania Senate | 23/42 (-19) |
| Ron Johnson | Wisconsin Senate | 30/49 (-19) |
| John Raese | West Virginia Senate | 27/47 (-20) |
| Marco Rubio | Florida Senate | 27/47 (-20) |
| Bill Brady | Illinois Governor | 17/37 (-20) |
| Dino Rossi | Washington Senate | 34/56 (-22) |
| Meg Whitman | California Governor | 29/52 (-23) |
| Carly Fiorina | California Senate | 25/48 (-23) |
| Kelly Ayotte | New Hampshire Senate | 28/52 (-24) |
| John Kasich | Ohio Governor | 20/45 (-25) |
| Scott Walker | Wisconsin Governor | 29/54 (-25) |
| Rand Paul | Kentucky Senate | 28/57 (-29) |
| Ken Buck | Colorado Senate | 18/48 (-30) |
| Dan Maes | Colorado Governor | 15/46 (-31) |
| Rick Scott | Florida Governor | 22/57 (-35) |
| Roy Blunt | Missouri Senate | 24/59 (-35) |
| Christine O’Donnell | Delaware Senate | 14/63 (-49) |
| Sharron Angle | Nevada Senate | 18/69 (-51) |
| Joe Miller | Alaska Senate | 15/72 (-57) |
Republicans will win a lot of these races anyway because the political climate is so bad for Democrats. But they could have made things a lot easier for themselves by appealing more candidates with appeal to the center. And when you look at the bottom of this list it looks like they definitely cost themselves a Senate seat in Delaware, probably cost themselves the Governor's office in Florida, and may have cost themselves Senate seats in Nevada and Colorado by nominating candidates with limited appeal to moderates.
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