Andrew Cuomo's had a pretty steep drop in his personal popularity with New York voters over the course of this election cycle but with a very weak opponent it doesn't much matter- he leads Carl Paladino 53-38.
Just under half of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Cuomo, with 49% viewing him positively to 39% unfavorably. That +10 spread represents a 27 point drop from January of 2009 when it was +37 with 57% of voters in the state holding a favorable opinion of him and just 20% a negative one. He's maintained his popularity with Democrats since then but has seen significant erosion with Republicans and independents.
Where GOP voters gave him a positive 49/28 score early last year his crossover popularity has now almost completely disintegrated with only 18% liking him now and 71% expressing displeasure toward him. And independents have turned from a +6 favorability spread toward Cuomo to a -11 one.
If Cuomo had a strong opponent that big decline in his popularity might be a real source of concern for him. But he doesn't have a strong opponent. 51% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Paladino while only 34% see him positively. Perhaps most discouraging for Paladino's prospects is that only 14% of Democrats see him in a favorable light- you need a whole lot more crossover popularity than that to get elected as a Republican in New York.
If you have your party base locked up as a Democrat in New York you're going to win and Cuomo pretty much does, leading 81-13 with voters in his party. Cuomo is also winning over 19% of Republicans, which is unusually high in a year when GOP voters are extremely unified around their party's nominees in most races. And although Paladino does lead 46-40 with independents that's a much smaller margin than the double digit leads most Republican candidates across the country are posting and that Paladino would need to have a chance in this race.
Will this contest end up a lot closer than it looked six months ago? Sure. But barring a huge misstep in the final four weeks Cuomo is still positioned to win comfortably.
Full results here
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
North Carolina and the Economy
In one sense things have not changed that much in North Carolina over the last 2 years: 57% of voters on our most recent poll of the state said the economy and jobs is the issue they're most concerned with. That's nearly identical to the 60% who cited that as their top issue the first week of October in 2008.
There's a big difference though in the direction those voters most concerned about the economy are headed with their votes this year. At this time two years ago they favored Barack Obama 60-34, Kay Hagan 59-31, and Bev Perdue 56-35. That has now changed dramatically. This time that group of voters is planning to vote for Richard Burr 49-39 and favors Republican legislative candidates by a 48-43 margin. And they're no longer too fond of those 3 Democrats they supported overwhelmingly in 2008- Obama's approval with them is 39/56, Hagan's is 35/53, and Perdue's is 34/50.
This is perhaps the story of the 2010 election, both in North Carolina and nationally, in one of its most simple forms. In 2008 the economy stunk, the Republicans were in charge, and Democrats won by a heavy margin with voters most concerned about the economy. In 2010 most voters think the economy still stinks, the Democrats are now in charge, and that big advantage they had with voters whose top issue is the economy has evaporated. That's why the GOP is headed for a big year in the state.
There's a big difference though in the direction those voters most concerned about the economy are headed with their votes this year. At this time two years ago they favored Barack Obama 60-34, Kay Hagan 59-31, and Bev Perdue 56-35. That has now changed dramatically. This time that group of voters is planning to vote for Richard Burr 49-39 and favors Republican legislative candidates by a 48-43 margin. And they're no longer too fond of those 3 Democrats they supported overwhelmingly in 2008- Obama's approval with them is 39/56, Hagan's is 35/53, and Perdue's is 34/50.
This is perhaps the story of the 2010 election, both in North Carolina and nationally, in one of its most simple forms. In 2008 the economy stunk, the Republicans were in charge, and Democrats won by a heavy margin with voters most concerned about the economy. In 2010 most voters think the economy still stinks, the Democrats are now in charge, and that big advantage they had with voters whose top issue is the economy has evaporated. That's why the GOP is headed for a big year in the state.
Bennet slightly ahead
It may be a little premature to start writing Michael Bennet's political obituary...PPP's newest Colorado poll finds him holding onto a 46-45 lead over Ken Buck.
Both candidates have their party base pretty much completely locked up: Bennet is winning 85% of Democrats and Buck is winning 84% of Republicans. Bennet's slight edge comes because of something that is pretty unusual for Democratic candidates across the country this year- he's ahead 48-38 with independent voters.
Bennet's lead with independents is not because they like him- in fact they don't. His approval rating with them is a negative 37/45 spread. Rather it appears to be the price to pay for Republicans nominating a candidate with limited appeal to the center. Independents see Buck unfavorably by an even wider spread, 31/50.
A closer look at moderate voters, who comprise the majority of independents in Colorado, shows a lot of trouble for Buck. They see him negatively by greater than a 2:1 margin, 27/57. They're not real high on Bennet, giving him only a +7 approval rating at 43/36. But when it comes to the horse race they give the incumbent a 24 point lead despite their tepid feelings toward him personally because of their greater animosity toward Buck.
Bennet continues to be, as we've found in all of our polling for the whole cycle, an unpopular Senator. His approval rating is just 35% and 49% of voters disapprove of the job he's doing. If a moderate Republican had been nominated against him this race might be over. But Buck's unpopular too at a 41/46 favorability spread and that's keeping this race close.
It should be noted that these poll numbers are predicated on an electorate that split its votes evenly between Barack Obama and John McCain, suggesting a pretty large drop in Democratic turnout from 2008 given that Obama actually won the state by 9 points. This is one race where if there is any closing of the enthusiasm gap over the last four weeks it could put Bennet over the top.
Expect this to be one of the closest races in the country.
Full results here
Both candidates have their party base pretty much completely locked up: Bennet is winning 85% of Democrats and Buck is winning 84% of Republicans. Bennet's slight edge comes because of something that is pretty unusual for Democratic candidates across the country this year- he's ahead 48-38 with independent voters.
Bennet's lead with independents is not because they like him- in fact they don't. His approval rating with them is a negative 37/45 spread. Rather it appears to be the price to pay for Republicans nominating a candidate with limited appeal to the center. Independents see Buck unfavorably by an even wider spread, 31/50.
A closer look at moderate voters, who comprise the majority of independents in Colorado, shows a lot of trouble for Buck. They see him negatively by greater than a 2:1 margin, 27/57. They're not real high on Bennet, giving him only a +7 approval rating at 43/36. But when it comes to the horse race they give the incumbent a 24 point lead despite their tepid feelings toward him personally because of their greater animosity toward Buck.
Bennet continues to be, as we've found in all of our polling for the whole cycle, an unpopular Senator. His approval rating is just 35% and 49% of voters disapprove of the job he's doing. If a moderate Republican had been nominated against him this race might be over. But Buck's unpopular too at a 41/46 favorability spread and that's keeping this race close.
It should be noted that these poll numbers are predicated on an electorate that split its votes evenly between Barack Obama and John McCain, suggesting a pretty large drop in Democratic turnout from 2008 given that Obama actually won the state by 9 points. This is one race where if there is any closing of the enthusiasm gap over the last four weeks it could put Bennet over the top.
Expect this to be one of the closest races in the country.
Full results here
Monday, October 4, 2010
Blumenthal up 12
The race may be closer than it was six months ago but the truth remains: Richard Blumenthal is one of the strongest Democratic Senate candidates in the country, Linda McMahon is one of the weakest Republican ones, and Blumenthal holds a double digit lead. It's 53-41 in PPP's newest look at the race.
Blumenthal's favorability rating is 53/39, making him the second most popular Democratic Senate candidate in a competitive race behind only Joe Manchin in West Virginia. That would make him a tough opponent in a blue state even for a strong Republican opponent but that McMahon is not.
Her numbers are the exact inverse of Blumenthal's with only 39% of voters seeing her positively and 53% having an unfavorable opinion. The only Republican Senate candidates that our most recent polls found with worse favorability numbers than McMahon were Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Christine O'Donnell.
Fewer than half of voters in the state- 47%- think McMahon is fit to hold public office. McMahon would have to make serious in roads with Democrats to have any chance at winning the race but only 13% of them have a favorable view of her.
Blumenthal is confounding the main trends giving Democratic candidates across the country trouble this year. Independents are generally leaning strongly toward the GOP but Blumenthal ties McMahon with them at 45%. For the most part Republican voters this year are much more unified than Democrats but Blumenthal is getting more cross over support than McMahon, taking 15% of Republicans while losing only 11% of Democrats.
Certainly Blumenthal's lead is not as lofty as it once was. But he still looks to be in a pretty solid position going into the last four weeks of the campaign.
Full results here
Blumenthal's favorability rating is 53/39, making him the second most popular Democratic Senate candidate in a competitive race behind only Joe Manchin in West Virginia. That would make him a tough opponent in a blue state even for a strong Republican opponent but that McMahon is not.
Her numbers are the exact inverse of Blumenthal's with only 39% of voters seeing her positively and 53% having an unfavorable opinion. The only Republican Senate candidates that our most recent polls found with worse favorability numbers than McMahon were Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Christine O'Donnell.
Fewer than half of voters in the state- 47%- think McMahon is fit to hold public office. McMahon would have to make serious in roads with Democrats to have any chance at winning the race but only 13% of them have a favorable view of her.
Blumenthal is confounding the main trends giving Democratic candidates across the country trouble this year. Independents are generally leaning strongly toward the GOP but Blumenthal ties McMahon with them at 45%. For the most part Republican voters this year are much more unified than Democrats but Blumenthal is getting more cross over support than McMahon, taking 15% of Republicans while losing only 11% of Democrats.
Certainly Blumenthal's lead is not as lofty as it once was. But he still looks to be in a pretty solid position going into the last four weeks of the campaign.
Full results here
Time for this week's vote...
We should have our Connecticut Senate numbers out later today and we'll start rolling out Colorado and New York poll results tomorrow.
Here are the options for next weekend:
-California. We found a very encouraging picture for Democrats in the state three weeks ago, it would be interesting to see if that's holding true.
-Florida. The Governor's race in particular has seen some pretty divergent polling of late. 2 weeks ago this seemed likely to be one of the Democrats' brighter sports for this year, that may or may not still be the case.
-Missouri. Some internal Democratic polls have shown the race tightening but with limited independent polling on the race it's not real clear whether that's really happening or not.
-Nevada. It's been 10 weeks now since we polled this race, pretty long given how high up the list of competitiveness it is.
-New Hampshire. Some polling shows the Governor's race a toss up, some still a strong edge for John Lynch. And have Democratic prospects in the Senate race really faded away or not?
-Washington.The other top tier Senate contest we've gone a long time without polling- or is it really still top tier? Interested to see if we would have Patty Murray pulling away or not.
-West Virginia. Despite the increasing competitiveness of this race we're still not seeing numbers from anyone but Rasmussen so we're open to taking another look even if it hasn't been that long.
-Wisconsin. When we polled this a few weeks ago it was right after the Republican primary so I'm curious to see how much of Ron Johnson and Scott Walker's strong standing was a post-primary bounce and how much of it was real.
Voting is open until Wednesday night and we'll do at least the top two vote getters. And please leave suggestions for questions you'd like us to ask in these states beyond the obvious stuff.
Here are the options for next weekend:
-California. We found a very encouraging picture for Democrats in the state three weeks ago, it would be interesting to see if that's holding true.
-Florida. The Governor's race in particular has seen some pretty divergent polling of late. 2 weeks ago this seemed likely to be one of the Democrats' brighter sports for this year, that may or may not still be the case.
-Missouri. Some internal Democratic polls have shown the race tightening but with limited independent polling on the race it's not real clear whether that's really happening or not.
-Nevada. It's been 10 weeks now since we polled this race, pretty long given how high up the list of competitiveness it is.
-New Hampshire. Some polling shows the Governor's race a toss up, some still a strong edge for John Lynch. And have Democratic prospects in the Senate race really faded away or not?
-Washington.The other top tier Senate contest we've gone a long time without polling- or is it really still top tier? Interested to see if we would have Patty Murray pulling away or not.
-West Virginia. Despite the increasing competitiveness of this race we're still not seeing numbers from anyone but Rasmussen so we're open to taking another look even if it hasn't been that long.
-Wisconsin. When we polled this a few weeks ago it was right after the Republican primary so I'm curious to see how much of Ron Johnson and Scott Walker's strong standing was a post-primary bounce and how much of it was real.
Voting is open until Wednesday night and we'll do at least the top two vote getters. And please leave suggestions for questions you'd like us to ask in these states beyond the obvious stuff.
Perdue a drag on NC Democrats
A majority of North Carolinians continue to be unhappy with Bev Perdue's job performance and the relationship between that and likely Republican legislative gains this fall shouldn't be underestimated.
Perdue's the face of Democrats in state government and her approval rating continues to languish at 35% with 51% of voters disapproving of her. She's starting to see some improvement in her numbers with her own party's voters, pushing her favor with Democrats to 57%. But she continues to be toxic with independents at a 25/64 approval spread and whatever limited appeal she may have ever had to Republicans is gone. Only 8% of them like the job she's doing.
When you have a highly unpopular Governor that's going to take a toll on your party's legislative candidates and Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That's fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they're planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they'll go back in the other direction and vote Democratic.
If Republicans really do end up having an 8% advantage on the legislative vote in November they will almost definitely gain control of both the House and the Senate. But many legislative Democrats have a long history of outperforming the general leanings of their districts and if that remains the case again this year the party could narrowly retain control.
Back to Perdue's numbers- while her approval rating is better than it has been some months over the last year and a half what might be most distressing for her is that just 18% of voters in the state think she's improved on her first year performance during her second year in the Governor's mansion. 27% they think she's gotten worse and 55% feel she's doing about the same, which is not a good sign given how dimly voters viewed her after year one. Part of her problem may be a failure to communicate with average voters. 48% think her communications efforts have been ineffective while only 36% think she's doing a good job on that front.
Perdue still has time to rehabilitate her image for her own reelection campaign but it looks like it's too late for her to be anything but a liability for Democratic candidates across the state this fall.
Full results here
Perdue's the face of Democrats in state government and her approval rating continues to languish at 35% with 51% of voters disapproving of her. She's starting to see some improvement in her numbers with her own party's voters, pushing her favor with Democrats to 57%. But she continues to be toxic with independents at a 25/64 approval spread and whatever limited appeal she may have ever had to Republicans is gone. Only 8% of them like the job she's doing.
When you have a highly unpopular Governor that's going to take a toll on your party's legislative candidates and Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That's fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they're planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they'll go back in the other direction and vote Democratic.
If Republicans really do end up having an 8% advantage on the legislative vote in November they will almost definitely gain control of both the House and the Senate. But many legislative Democrats have a long history of outperforming the general leanings of their districts and if that remains the case again this year the party could narrowly retain control.
Back to Perdue's numbers- while her approval rating is better than it has been some months over the last year and a half what might be most distressing for her is that just 18% of voters in the state think she's improved on her first year performance during her second year in the Governor's mansion. 27% they think she's gotten worse and 55% feel she's doing about the same, which is not a good sign given how dimly voters viewed her after year one. Part of her problem may be a failure to communicate with average voters. 48% think her communications efforts have been ineffective while only 36% think she's doing a good job on that front.
Perdue still has time to rehabilitate her image for her own reelection campaign but it looks like it's too late for her to be anything but a liability for Democratic candidates across the state this fall.
Full results here
Friday, October 1, 2010
Two more notes on Illinois
-I think the scariest statistic for Democrats in our Illinois poll this week was the generic Congressional ballot- a 44-44 tie. That seems like it should be impossible in such a strongly Democratic state but 94% of Republicans are committed to voting for their party while only 83% of Democrats say the same for theirs and independents are going toward the GOP by a 41-32 margin as well. Other recent polls we did found Democrats trailing on the generic ballot in Michigan by 7 points, in Ohio by 6 points, and in Pennsylvania by 9 points. It's staggering to think about how many House seats the party could lose in the Midwest alone.
-One politician whose popularity really impresses me is Dick Durbin. He's one of the few Senators we've found with a 50% or better approval rating at any time this year (our August Illinois poll) and was at 46% on our survey there this week, still well ahead of the curve in this political climate. What makes Durbin's numbers remarkable is not really how they compare to Senators in other states but how they compare to other politicians in the state. 46% might not sound great but when you compare it to 24% for Pat Quinn, 17% for Roland Burris, and the horrid favorabilities for Alexi Giannoulias, Mark Kirk, and Bill Brady he comes out looking amazingly popular in comparison.
We'll have Connecticut, Colorado, and New York polls next week- have a great weekend!
-One politician whose popularity really impresses me is Dick Durbin. He's one of the few Senators we've found with a 50% or better approval rating at any time this year (our August Illinois poll) and was at 46% on our survey there this week, still well ahead of the curve in this political climate. What makes Durbin's numbers remarkable is not really how they compare to Senators in other states but how they compare to other politicians in the state. 46% might not sound great but when you compare it to 24% for Pat Quinn, 17% for Roland Burris, and the horrid favorabilities for Alexi Giannoulias, Mark Kirk, and Bill Brady he comes out looking amazingly popular in comparison.
We'll have Connecticut, Colorado, and New York polls next week- have a great weekend!
GOP Unified
The biggest story of the primary season this year was the deep divisions within the Republican Party. When it comes to the general election though the party's voters are showing a pretty remarkable degree of unity around their candidates.
Since switching to polling likely voters in mid-August PPP has polled 21 Senate and Gubernatorial races where each party's nominee had already been set. In 16 of those contests the Democratic candidate is polling in single digits with GOP voters. With just a few exceptions Republicans have put aside their ideological differences in the primary to fight the greater evil of the Democrats.
The exceptions to the rule are Joe Manchin (14% of GOP vote), Bill White (12%), Ethan Berkowitz (11%), Jack Conway (11%), and Dan Onorato (10%). Manchin, White, Berkowitz, and Onorato are all among the most personally popular Democratic candidates in the country this year but the contours of their races are so difficult that they may all lose anyway. Conway is probably benefiting from some segment of Republican voters, albeit a pretty small one, thinking Rand Paul is too extreme.
The even better news for the Republicans is that in a lot of the races where the party really has to be unified to win it is to a pretty remarkable degree. In the deep blue states of Illinois and Maine we find Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias and Gubernatorial candidate Libby Mitchell getting only 2% and 3% of the GOP vote respectively. In the purplish states of North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio Senate candidates Elaine Marshall and Robin Carnahan and Gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland were getting 1%, 4%, and 5% of the GOP vote.
Independents going strongly toward the GOP and the Democratic enthusiasm gap are the two biggest reasons this is shaping up to be a great year for Republicans. But GOP unity isn't too far behind.
Here's the percentage of Democratic support from Republicans in the races we've polled post-primary since August:
Since switching to polling likely voters in mid-August PPP has polled 21 Senate and Gubernatorial races where each party's nominee had already been set. In 16 of those contests the Democratic candidate is polling in single digits with GOP voters. With just a few exceptions Republicans have put aside their ideological differences in the primary to fight the greater evil of the Democrats.
The exceptions to the rule are Joe Manchin (14% of GOP vote), Bill White (12%), Ethan Berkowitz (11%), Jack Conway (11%), and Dan Onorato (10%). Manchin, White, Berkowitz, and Onorato are all among the most personally popular Democratic candidates in the country this year but the contours of their races are so difficult that they may all lose anyway. Conway is probably benefiting from some segment of Republican voters, albeit a pretty small one, thinking Rand Paul is too extreme.
The even better news for the Republicans is that in a lot of the races where the party really has to be unified to win it is to a pretty remarkable degree. In the deep blue states of Illinois and Maine we find Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias and Gubernatorial candidate Libby Mitchell getting only 2% and 3% of the GOP vote respectively. In the purplish states of North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio Senate candidates Elaine Marshall and Robin Carnahan and Gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland were getting 1%, 4%, and 5% of the GOP vote.
Independents going strongly toward the GOP and the Democratic enthusiasm gap are the two biggest reasons this is shaping up to be a great year for Republicans. But GOP unity isn't too far behind.
Here's the percentage of Democratic support from Republicans in the races we've polled post-primary since August:
| Race | % of GOP Support for Democrat |
| West Virginia Senate | 14 |
| Texas Governor | 12 |
| Alaska Governor | 11 |
| Kentucky Senate | 11 |
| Pennsylvania Governor | 10 |
| California Senate | 9 |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 9 |
| Wisconsin Senate | 9 |
| Wisconsin Governor | 9 |
| Michigan Governor | 8 |
| California Governor | 8 |
| New Mexico Governor | 7 |
| Illinois Governor | 7 |
| Ohio Senate | 7 |
| Louisiana Senate | 7 |
| Ohio Governor | 5 |
| Alaska Senate | 5 |
| Missouri Senate | 4 |
| Maine Governor | 3 |
| Illinois Senate | 2 |
| North Carolina Senate | 1 |
Blago gives Levi good news
Levi Johnston's reign as the most unpopular person PPP had ever polled on in any individual state didn't last very long. Rod Blagojevich assumes that dubious crown after we found that 83% of voters in Illinois have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him positively. That -75 spread in voter feelings toward him breaks the record of -66 Johnston had set in August.
There's not a lot of point in breaking down feelings toward Blagojevich along demographic lines because pretty much everyone in the state hates him about the same. Only 10% of Democrats, 7% of independents, and 5% of Republicans see him in a favorable light.
Our big question: do you think there's anyone in any other state as reviled as Blagojevich? We'll test the folks you theorize on future polls in their states.
What may be even more interesting is that Illinois also produces the third most unpopular politician PPP has ever polled on in any state! He can't quite match Blagojevich and Johnston's levels of disfavor but at a -63 spread Jesse Jackson Jr. comes close. Only 10% of voters in the state have a favorable view of him while 73% see him unfavorably.
Jackson, like Blagojevich, is out of favor with pretty much every part of the electorate. 17% of Democrats, 10% of independents, and only 2% of Republicans see positively and even with African Americans he get just a 22% favorability rating.
I guess no one should be surprised to see Illinois leading the way in hating its political figures.
Full results here
There's not a lot of point in breaking down feelings toward Blagojevich along demographic lines because pretty much everyone in the state hates him about the same. Only 10% of Democrats, 7% of independents, and 5% of Republicans see him in a favorable light.
Our big question: do you think there's anyone in any other state as reviled as Blagojevich? We'll test the folks you theorize on future polls in their states.
What may be even more interesting is that Illinois also produces the third most unpopular politician PPP has ever polled on in any state! He can't quite match Blagojevich and Johnston's levels of disfavor but at a -63 spread Jesse Jackson Jr. comes close. Only 10% of voters in the state have a favorable view of him while 73% see him unfavorably.
Jackson, like Blagojevich, is out of favor with pretty much every part of the electorate. 17% of Democrats, 10% of independents, and only 2% of Republicans see positively and even with African Americans he get just a 22% favorability rating.
I guess no one should be surprised to see Illinois leading the way in hating its political figures.
Full results here
Looking at Rahm
It's a good thing for Rahm Emanuel that he's not going back to Illinois to run for Governor or Senate...but they like him in Chicago.
Our Illinois poll this week found that statewide Emanuel is a pretty unpopular figure. Only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him with 50% viewing him negatively. He's pretty universally reviled by Republicans (5/77 favorability) while Democrats are positive toward him but more tepidly so (52/21 favorability.) Independents split against him by a 21/62 margin as well.
Although there's a general sense that it's been liberal Democrats disenchanted with Emanuel he's actually more popular with them than he is with folks from the moderate or conservative wing of the party. Liberal Democrats give him a +40 favorability (59/19), moderate ones give him a +26 (51/25), and with the conservative wing of the party he's at a +14 (29/15).
Emanuel may not be very well liked down state but his numbers in the city of Chicago are strong. 50% of city voters on the poll said they had a favorable opinion of him to 30% with a negative one. In the rest of the state he's at a 24/54. It's going to be a crowded and likely strong field of candidates but Emanuel starts out with high name recognition and a pretty good degree of popularity in the city.
Full results here
Our Illinois poll this week found that statewide Emanuel is a pretty unpopular figure. Only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him with 50% viewing him negatively. He's pretty universally reviled by Republicans (5/77 favorability) while Democrats are positive toward him but more tepidly so (52/21 favorability.) Independents split against him by a 21/62 margin as well.
Although there's a general sense that it's been liberal Democrats disenchanted with Emanuel he's actually more popular with them than he is with folks from the moderate or conservative wing of the party. Liberal Democrats give him a +40 favorability (59/19), moderate ones give him a +26 (51/25), and with the conservative wing of the party he's at a +14 (29/15).
Emanuel may not be very well liked down state but his numbers in the city of Chicago are strong. 50% of city voters on the poll said they had a favorable opinion of him to 30% with a negative one. In the rest of the state he's at a 24/54. It's going to be a crowded and likely strong field of candidates but Emanuel starts out with high name recognition and a pretty good degree of popularity in the city.
Full results here
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