Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Virginia: Running Mate Impacts


More likely to vote for Obama

Less likely to vote for Obama

Voting Obama regardless of running mate

Voting McCain regardless of running mate

Warner

18

9

35

34

Clinton

14

13

34

35

Webb

12

12

36

34

Kaine

11

12

37

34


Although Mark Warner has sworn off consideration as a possible running mate for Barack Obama in Virginia, it sure looks like he could help put the ticket over the top in his home state. In addition to being popular as a Vice Presidential pick among Independents (24/16) and Democrats (19/7), his possible selection would even make more Republicans (10/6) likely to vote for Obama. By contrast Republicans report being less likely to vote for Obama if Kaine, Webb, or Clinton is the pick.

On a related note, Warner leads Jim Gilmore 59-28 in his Senate bid. Democrats may be concerned about picking Warner because of the certainty that the Senate seat will go blue, but with Gilmore polling below 30% one has to think that another Democratic challenger would be a strong favorite for the seat as well if Warner was to join the ticket.

Although there doesn't appear to be much enthusiasm for Tim Kaine or Jim Webb as possible running mates, it doesn't mean they're unpopular. Kaine has a solid 46/30 job approval rating, and Webb's is 44/33. Virginia voters just appear to want them to continue serving in the positions they have now.

Clinton is a popular possible running mate choice among Democratic voters, but would have a negative impact among Independents (18/25) and Republicans (5/11).

Full results here.

2 comments:

  1. For me, this election is over.
    Quinnipiac has new numbers and Obama lead in Florida, Ohio and PA.
    With the hard work from the liberal groups and the Obama army for registered new voters in every states(8 teams for registered voters in Ohio), Obama will win in a landslide in November.

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  2. I'm a conservative Republican, but if I lived in VA, I'd vote for Mark Warner over Jim Gilmore. Warner is more pro-business and isn't a soco nut like Gilmore.

    ReplyDelete