Monday, August 4, 2008

Obama's Current NC Tipping Point

Whether Barack Obama can win North Carolina or not will have a lot to do with what percentage of the electorate this fall is composed of African Americans. The most recent census estimate shows blacks at a little under 22% of the population, but in 2004 they made up just 18.5% of the state's voting population.

If blacks don't turn out at a higher rate relative to the rest of the population than they did in 2004, Obama has no chance. On the other hand, if they vote at a higher rate than the white population and push the black composition of the electorate up over 22% this year, Obama could even be favored in North Carolina.

Using our latest poll, here's how the contest in North Carolina would look weighting the African American vote to be anywhere from 18 to 23%:

Black % of Electorate

McCain

Obama

18

48

43

19

47

44

20

47

44

21

46

45

22

46

45

23

45

46

At this point anyway it looks like 23% could be the North Carolina tipping point.

5 comments:

  1. I think NC will have a recount and will be too close to call all the election night.

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  2. The tipping point for Obama will be a higher turnout of African-American voters, a higher percentage of White and Latino voters and the wild card no one is paying much attention to...a much higher number of young voters.

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  3. If it's not this year, in 4 years NC will be definitively a real swing state like Virginia this year.

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  4. Every year Democrats try to increase black turnout claiming it will swing the election.

    I'll believe it when I see it.

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  5. North Carolina has the best education sytem in the South.

    More and more educated voters are rejecting McCain and recognizing the intellect of Obama.

    The younger voters may turn this if they get out and vote.

    ReplyDelete