Montana was a pretty clear winner for our final west coast poll. Now to the east coast. The finalists are...
-Georgia. Competitive Senate race and a possible sleeper state for Obama, although I have a feeling he'd be spending more money and contesting stronger there if he really felt like he had a chance at taking it.
-Wisconsin. It's still on the list of Nate Silver's tipping point states, almost all of which we intend to poll next week. We were the best pollster there for the Democratic primary.
Voting will be open until Saturday.
Definitely Georgia.
ReplyDeleteI would also like for you to do a poll sometime of other Southern 'longshots' with competitive Senate races, like MS or LA. But it looks like you aren't planning on doing that before the election.
Will be very interesting to see how the Paul effect works in Montana. There is a new MSU Billings poll today that has Obama at 44%, McCain at 40% and Barr/Paul; taking 5% between them.
ReplyDeleteThe poll wouldn't take my vote. I vote for Georgia.
ReplyDeleteMontana will be very interesting.
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ReplyDeleteThanks Tom,
ReplyDeletewhat poll will be released this weekend in addition to the ohio one?
and can you give us an idea of the other east coast states you are doing, outside of georgia/wisconsin
Virginia is coming this weekend also.
ReplyDeleteWe are *planning* to do North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, and West Virginia next week in addition to the already stated western states and apparently Georgia.
With Rasmussen showing only a 5 point spread, I went with Georgia.
ReplyDeleteHey Tom, I'm amused that you call Wisconsin an East Coast state!
ReplyDeleteGeorgia is VERY important because of the senate race! Especially now that we know that there will be a run-off election if neither person gets 50%+1.
Definitely GA! I think it's the next to turn blue, based on trending, ground game, and early voting. Anecdotal evidence (which makes for terrible empiricism but good stories) of a blue-shifting GA: my dad and step-mom in Augusta are ultra-conservative Republicans, both retired Army officers. They've both early voted for Obama. Something very ... different... is shaping up in this election. For real.
ReplyDeleteI am really curious to see how the GA Senate race is coming, too. I suspect that both the Pres and the Sen races there are going to be nail-biters on election night - much more so than here in NC.
I was hoping we could see a New Hampshire poll among the eastern states.
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