Tuesday, July 6, 2010

High Profile Dems Helpful?

PPP has polled on the impact of a Barack Obama endorsement in 5 key Senate races over the last month, and it's looking more and more clear that there's just about nowhere Democratic candidates would benefit from having the President come to campaign with them.

In Illinois, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin an Obama endorsement comes down as a net negative impact on the chances of a voter supporting a candidate by anywhere from 14 to 33 points. There are two reasons for that. First, Republicans respond more negatively to Obama than Democrats do positively. Second, independents are completely unimpressed by an Obama endorsement. In Ohio 6% say they're more likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate while 57% say they're less likely to. In Wisconsin it's a 6/51 spread. In Pennsylvania it's 10/56. In Illinois it's 15/39 and in Louisiana it's 16/49.

Already Obama visits did little to help Democratic candidates in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia. The party may be better off if he stays in the White House and focuses on governing this fall. Here are the state by state Obama endorsement impact poll numbers:

State

More Likely

Less Likely

Net

Illinois

26

40

-14

Louisiana

22

55

-33

Ohio

24

51

-27

Pennsylvania

22

50

-28

Wisconsin

19

50

-31


If Obama is not Democrats' best weapon on the trail this fall, what about Bill Clinton? Clinton is not quite as toxic as the sitting President but his support isn't going to be real helpful with an off year general electorate either:

State

More Likely

Less Likely

Net

Illinois

25

38

-13

Louisiana

23

47

-24

Ohio

27

44

-17

Pennsylvania

23

43

-20

Wisconsin

19

43

-24


If Democrats want to avoid nationalizing this year's election- which is probably prudent- they're better off if both Obama and Clinton stay off the campaign trail.

3 comments:

  1. Well, there are still clearly states like Arkansas where Bubba would help.

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  2. Your conclusions only make sense if you consider only the voters who initially were going to vote for the Obama-backed candidate. You, however, are including those who never wanted to vote for the guy anyway. I would guess the net result in the first case is going to be negative also, but not as negative as what you got by including voters who have been hostile to Obama-backed candidates from the start.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 56% Oppose the Obama Justice Department's Challenge of Arizona Immigration Law. Obama seems determined to make himself and his party more unpopular with the American people than they already are... and further alienate Democrats from the mainstream of America.

    ReplyDelete