We're going to have Nevada Senate numbers tomorrow. What I found most amazing in comparing where Harry Reid is now and when we last polled in January and found him down 51-41 to Sue Lowden is the numbers among moderates:
Sharron Angle is getting 9% with liberals and 80% with conservatives, down just slightly from the 12% and 82% Lowden was getting with those groups. But where Lowden trailed Reid only 51-41 with moderate voters, Angle is facing a 64-28 deficit. The price of nominating Angle for Nevada Republicans appears to be 26 points with moderate voters.
We asked poll respondents whether they considered Angle's views to be 'mainstream' or 'extremist.' 68% of moderates put Angle in the 'extremist' category to just 22% who called her 'mainstream.' That goes a long way toward explaining the drastically changed state of this race.
As a Republican I am disgusted with the NV GOP's stupidity, but of course, Angle has my support - and I don't like that I have to support her one bit!
ReplyDeleteAre we back to this trick again? Moderates lean left! They are not objective judges of who is "mainstream" or "extremist". INDEPENDENTS are the relevant subgroup, not left-leaning "moderates".
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Reids demonization of Angle as some sort of radical has worked. Although, if voters actually read her quotes for which she has been attributed that label, its highly doubtful man would still apply it.
ReplyDeleteReid has spent over $10 million in negative ads against Angle already. He has another $9 million in cash on hand. Angle has just begun launching her negative ads so the results of the poll tomorrow will probably overstate Reids support.
Additionally, Reid continues to fail to attract new voters and is instead simply raising Angles unfavorables. He hasn't polled above 44% in any poll which means he's highly vulnerable.
Anon, that's all Reid has to do to win. Just wait until voters start learning about all of Angle's positions.
ReplyDeleteFor those interested, PPP's January poll had Reid up with moderates but down with Independents. Angle was not tested though
Democrats are admitting they can lose BOTH houses of Congress
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704875004575375122374132154.html
And Americans are voting with their wallets to support REPUBLICANS for the Senate
http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AW318_SENATE_NS_20100718184815.gif
All your cute little statistically tricks to try to perpetuate the left-wing talking point that Americans don't want a principled conservative is falling flat.
Typical GOP rhetoric. "Reid demonized Angle"? She demonized herself.
ReplyDeleteShe's an enormous trough-feeding hypocrite. Sucking at the federal trough, sucking at the state trough and now she wants to suck at the Congressional trough. Typical.
Christian Liberty, voters hate Republicans more than they do Democrats! Look at the latest national polls.
ReplyDelete'Statistical tricks' like polling a large number of people and then reporting what they said? When more than half of the respondents agree with a position, that is the mainstream position by definition. I'll wait to see the actual poll questions and results, though.
ReplyDeleteIn particular, I'd like to know whether the mainstream/extreme question was asked before or after the head-to-head, and whether to be fair respondents were asked the same question about Harry Reid. I would expect more or less mirror numbers - those who would call Angle 'mainstream' would be highly likely to call Reid the reverse, and vice-versa. It would be particularly telling if more Republicans identified Angle as 'extreme' than identifed Reid that way.
According to your statement above and your nevada poll from jan. I calculated it out and Reid would be leading Angle 62 to 30. That seems like a lot. Did the liberal/Conservative/moderate percentages change from your january poll.
ReplyDeleteI hope the "do you think Angle's an extremist" question came after the horse race question. Otherwise that could function like a push poll. The questions can nudge people with their implications
ReplyDelete"I hope the "do you think Angle's an extremist" question came after the horse race question. Otherwise that could function like a push poll. The questions can nudge people with their implications"
ReplyDeleteOf course. We always ask job approvals and favorabilities, then horse race, before any questions about ideology or issues.
"INDEPENDENTS are the relevant subgroup, not left-leaning "moderates"."
ReplyDeleteIndependents are no more an unshifting group than are moderates. They're all self-indentified. Few Americans are truly independent; almost everyone votes one way or another most of the time. Independents this year tend to favor Republicans because the group calling itself independent is made up of more conservatives than in other cycles, namely 2008 and 2006.
"All your cute little statistically tricks to try to perpetuate the left-wing talking point that Americans don't want a principled conservative is falling flat."
OK, if you don't like "statistically" tricks, just look at the toplines. Where are these "principled conservatives" winning? Angle, Buck, and Rubio are down, and Perry, Paul, and Toomey are tied.
Harry Reid is trying to make the election about how extreme Sharron Angle is. It might work. It still doesn't change the fact that Medicare,Social Security and the deficit all have gotten worse during his 24 years in the Senate. The problem with this country is both Democrats and Republicans suck. They only care about expanding government and making the party more poweful.
ReplyDeleteHere's an article on Sharron's Angle (not) wonderful campaign
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jul/18/how-race-has-turned-sour-sharron-angle/
4:27, I calculated it out using the statement above and the same lib/mod/con breakdown from Jan and I put Angle's overall number between 44-45 and Reid at roughly 48. Looks like this poll will be close.
ReplyDeleteWhile a shift in moderates is notable, it's misleading. People on the left are nearly twice as likely to identify themselves as moderate than people on the right. "Liberal" has become a dirty word, while "conservative" is considered a badge of honor. So Democrats should always win moderates.
ReplyDeleteIndependents may change election to election but being an independent is usually due to the box you check on a form. So while anyone can say they're "moderate" there is a qualification to be "independent."
Lee, Angle, Johnson, Toomey, Rubio, Buck, and Paul are all principled conservatives and they could all conceivably be U.S. Senators in January. Not to mention that these are not the only conservatives running for office this year. Lots of new conservative members coming.
ReplyDeleteHarry Reid molested me as a child when I was 3 years old.
ReplyDeleteIf the Republicans were smart, they'd call on Miss Second Amendment Remedies to step down.
ReplyDeleteGiven Democrats' abysmal record on unemployment, Americans have no reason to support Democrats (and Nevadans certainly have no reason to support Harry Reid).
ReplyDeletehttp://hillbuzz.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/discouraged-workers-graph-with-dem-govt.jpg?w=510&h=394
Sharon Angle is a complete nut. I'm not a Reid fan by any means, however, the Republicans sealed their fate with me when they nominated Angle. There is zero chance that I will vote for her.
ReplyDeleteGood to hear the confirmation on the polling order - I didn't expect PPP would do the other question first, but anybody can have a Dead Brain Day sometimes. ;-)
ReplyDeletei switched the liberal and conservative percentages by accidents. Reid should be leading Angle tomorrow 48% to 45%
ReplyDeleteLet's remind ourselves how those principal conservatives are doing.
ReplyDeleteTwo are down, three are tied. Buck is likely to lose, Toomey is likely to lose. One in Utah is up. So America doesn't want conservatives I guess?
Who is Johnson?
Christian Liberty, but why are people backing Reid? Why has he been up in the last 4 polls of the race? Maybe it's become Sharron Angle is a complete loser.
NRH:
ReplyDelete"I would expect more or less mirror numbers - those who would call Angle 'mainstream' would be highly likely to call Reid the reverse, and vice-versa."
That's possible. It's also possible that Reid's "extremist" numbers are closer to Angle's than you expect, if Nevadans regard the election as a contest between two extremists.
Hey Christian Liberty, given the Republicans shocking refusal to help the unemployed, none of the tens of millions of unemployed citizens have a reason to vote for them!
ReplyDeleteDid the same poll ask if people though Harry Reid was an extremist? I think not seeing the poll is liberally biased
ReplyDeleteI think Reid will be below 48% I think 47-45.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see how many people think Reid is an extremist as well. The American public was adamantly opposed to Obamacare yet Reid helped to get it rammed through. His views and actions on that issue were well outside of where the country was on that issue.
ReplyDeleteMD posting,
ReplyDeleteTommy, you really have no shame anymore. You are a hack. Nothing more, nothing less. Remember when you start to work with Kos, ask for a money order upfront. You might want to talk with your buddy Ali first.
Republican. Felt cold towards Lowden. Voted for Tarkanian, though thought Chachas was much more dynamic. Will vote for Angle.
ReplyDeleteSo who is the most extreme: Angle, who has a few hard right views but believes in individual liberties, or Reid, who basically wants the state in control of most aspects of people's lives?
Rasmussen has had ANGLE clearly ahead in ALL Categories against Reid. They are by far the best poll source as they poll on a 3 day moving average and they poll ACTUAL Voters.
ReplyDeleteTom:
ReplyDeleteWe asked poll respondents whether they considered Angle's views to be 'mainstream' or 'extremist.'
For heaven's sake, can you say push polling?
Angle's views are not "maintstream," they are conservative. Yet the only other option given was "extremist."
Harry Reid has enough special interest money to smear Angle without a gratuitous contribution from PPP.
If Nevada elects Harry Reid again, then they should just burn. At this point, Nevadans should be ready to vote in an Ostrich instead of a Democrat. If they don't, then they are truly goners.
ReplyDeleteas a former dem turned independent, i will be voting for sharon angle. she will only be a junior senator and will have no power to do anything, while harry reid, who sold his soul to obama, has done plenty of harm. he gave away the rights of nev. seniors to keep their medicare advantage while allowing floridians to keep theirs.nev. cant take another 6 years of harry reid.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous:
ReplyDelete"They are by far the best poll source as they poll on a 3 day moving average and they poll ACTUAL Voters."
Only Rasmussen's Presidential approval poll is based on a three-day moving average. Their Senate polls are all one-shot items.
"Only Rasmussen's Presidential approval poll is based on a three-day moving average. Their Senate polls are all one-shot items."
ReplyDeleteRight, and all of our polls are conducted over at least two days, giving people on the list several opportunities to be home.