Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Rating the Republicans in Iowa

Our early Iowa polling looks very similar to how things went in the state in 2008 and there's a reason for that: with the exception of Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin voters in the state don't really know any of the new folks who they may be able to choose from in 2012 very well.

John Thune, Mitch Daniels, and Mike Pence could all make a strong impact in Iowa as fresh Midwestern faces if they end up getting into the race. But for now it's pretty much impossible to measure their potential impact because each is known to fewer than 30% of Republican voters in the state. Folks like Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Haley Barbour are all better known but they still fall under 50% with an opinion about them.

It's certainly possible that if Huckabee and Romney run again they'll finish one two in Iowa just like they did in 2008 and as our early polling shows. But it's also quite possible that one of these folks from further out in the pack who isn't very well known right now will catch fire and have a very strong impact on the race.

Here are the GOP folks we tested in rank order of how many voters had an opinion about them:

Name

% with opinion

Favorability (spread)

Sarah Palin

89%

60/29 (+31)

Mike Huckabee

88%

72/16 (+56)

Mitt Romney

83%

57/26 (+31)

Newt Gingrich

80%

53/27 (+26)

Rudy Giuliani

79%

49/30 (+19)

Ron Paul

70%

47/23 (+24)

Tim Pawlenty

46%

34/12 (+22)

Rick Santorum

37%

28/9 (+19)

Haley Barbour

36%

22/14 (+8)

Jim DeMint

32%

22/10 (+12)

John Thune

29%

20/9 (+11)

Mike Pence

24%

16/8 (+8)

Mitch Daniels

22%

11/11 (0)


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