The winners of our vote on where to poll this week were Georgia and New Hampshire. There was rampant cheating on the vote and near as we could tell those were the states that got the most unique individual votes. If anyone has suggestions on some better, free polling service we could use that could keep people from gaming these polls I'd appreciate it, otherwise we may just stop doing them because it's not worth the energy.
In New Hampshire we'd love suggestions of who to test against John Lynch for reelection next year and anything else you think we should ask. Georgia in particular we'll have a lot of room for your question ideas without either a Senate or Gubernatorial race for next year to look at so please tell us what you'd be interested to see.
Not going to get around to releasing our Mississippi Governor numbers today so those will be out tomorrow along with the Florida President ones.
How about how many NH voters agree with disgraced former State Rep Martin Harty's comments on eugenics? I know he stepped down, but he didn't seem to think his views were a big deal - I wonder how many Granite Staters agree.
ReplyDeleteAlternately, would they rather live free, or die?
Georgia immigration polling?
ReplyDelete-New Hampshire. Main interest here, like last week, is seeing what impact Rudy Giuliani getting into the Presidential race would have in the state.
ReplyDeleteFor New Hampshire, I would test Lynch vs. Ovide Lamontagne, John Stephen, Jeb Bradley, and Ted Gatsas. Those are some names being discussed.
ReplyDeleteFor Georgia, testing Herman Cain in the GOP presidential mix would certainly be interesting. Testing Nathan Deal's approval rating would be worthwhile, as well as support for Arizona-type illegal immigration legislation and support for local referendums on Sunday sales of alcohol.
N.H- a whole big deal was made of Donald Trump with some mystery poll so it would be interesting to see how he polls there!?!!?!?!?!
ReplyDeleteand what impact would rudy have in the state.
Georgia- its newt's home state it would be nice to see how the Georgian ppl would react to his potential candidacy
For Georgia a retrospective poll on Sam Nunn and Richard Russell would be awesome. Gov redo numbers against Deal and Barnes would be fun as well.
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteWhy not stick Trump and Rudy in the NEW HAMPSHIRE poll for fun, both the primary and general?
OK are you guys going to actually be releasing your mississippi governor numbers today because if you aren't you shouldn't have said on twitter you where going to.
ReplyDeletePlease add Rudy Giuliani into the survey.
ReplyDeleteShame, I wanted Washington and voted for it...once.
ReplyDeleteNew Hampshire vs. Lynch:
Lamontagne, Stephen, Bradley, Bill Binnie, John Sununu the younger, Frank Gunita.
GA:
ReplyDeleteNathan Deal vs. Roy Barnes
Herman Cain in the primary.
Obama vs. Cain
NH:
Giuliani in the primary
Lynch vs. Binnie
I've asked this many times, but those times NH didn't win the vote, but now that it has, I have some suggestions for NH:
ReplyDelete-Test the generic ballot and legislature approval, like you do in your home state of NC; see if Democrats have any chance of winning back the legislatures or the congressional seats.
-Do the usual presidential poll of Obama vs. "the bunch"
-Add Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump, and/or Scott Walker to the GOP primary poll.
-See if Hodes would win a rematch with Ayotte (I doubt it, and usually we don't ask about Senate rematches, but you never know).
For my money, you should test out Craig Benson, Ovide Lamontagne, John Stephen, Ted Gatsas, Peter Bragdon, and William O'Brien. Also keep John Sununu Jr. in mind.
ReplyDeleteIn New Hampshire there should also be a poll question on either Republican efforts to make it harder to vote and repeal the state's same-sex marriage law.
Not sure about questions for Georgia, though.
I'd like to see Rand Paul in the mix for this week.
ReplyDeletepoll ayotte vs sheheen popularity particularly among women, who are key in new hampshire. also, lynch's approval rating, again among women.
ReplyDeleteWhen polling NH, why not test anti-war sentiment? Ask Democrats if they would support President Obama or a generic candidate who opposes our actions in Libya. Ask Republicans if they support the President's decision.
ReplyDeleteYou should ask about the gay marriage law in NH and if voters there support a repeal effort, which is likely within the next year.
ReplyDeleteI say you use PPP to poll which states you want to poll!
ReplyDeleteFor both states you could test acceptance of gay marriage. New Hampshire has it so it's worth seeing if they want to keep it. Georgia's a good test case to see if people in red states are moving toward support for gay marriage.
ReplyDeleteAlso for both states a re-vote of the 2010 governor's races would be good.
Please poll Rudy Giuliani and Donald Trump in New Hampshire and Herman Cain in Georgia. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteFor New Hampshire, try testing support for the Republican-dominated State legislature vs Governor Lynch? Like a "Who do you trust more to govern" sort of question, given that there was probably alot of ticket-splitting going on in the 2010 election.
ReplyDeleteNH--Republicans you could try for governor are Ovide Lamontagne, Jeb Bradley, John Stephen, and John Sununu. Also, is it too early to test Shaheen-Sununu round 3? I know that the '08 version of that race was polled very early, perhaps in 2005.
ReplyDeleteGA--Immigration, union favorability. I'm most interested in the Presidential numbers here, because this could be a state that flips if Obama is winning big nationwide.
Ask New Hampshire voters if they think their state is overpolled.
ReplyDeletePoll generic State Legislature question in NH. If you could poll the two CDs separately too for Congressional races, that would be lovely - Ann McLane Kuster seems to be leaning towards running again against Rep. Bass. If not, please at least do generic Congressional (NH is small enough and the two CDs are almost equal partisanwise for it to be informative.)
ReplyDeleteIn NH:
ReplyDeleteInclude Rudy in one set with everyone.
Do not include Palin and Huckabee in a second set. curious where their support goes with Rudy in the mix with Mitt.
In New Hampshire:
ReplyDeleteLynch vs John Stephen. With no clear frontrunner, just see how the electorate has shifted since November, when Lynch narrowly beat Stephen. There's not much point in polling most of the others. Hodes/Ayotte rematch for another data point on how the electorate has shifted.
Preference for partisan control of the state legislature. With 400 state reps, districts are small enough that there is a fairly strong correlation between generic partisan control preference and actual results. They're still running under last year's budget, though, so it won't be until next year that people realize the crunch that Republicans are creating this year.
Support for marriage equality (or for repeal thereof). Possibly support for a Republican-offered alternative of eliminating ALL marriages in the state in favor of EVERYONE getting civil unions.
Support for Republican efforts to bar college students, soldiers, and short-term residents from voting. Support for Republican efforts to eliminate bargaining rights for state employees.
Support for expanding Medicare to cover everyone, similar to the plan under consideration in Vermont.
NH: so many things to ask. Would they support a change to the 4 year gubernatorial term.
ReplyDeletewould you prefer republicans or democrats in charge of the legislature.
is mitt romney a New Hampshirite?
if you're a democrat, are you thinking of voting in the 2012 republican primary?
I know this is going to sound like a weird comment, but as for ensuring protections against poll fraud I would see if you could get in contact with (or a site like) GameFAQs, which actually runs annual poll contests where a considerable amount of money and prizes are at stake (and thus have a LOT of security against cheating, as many high-stakes polls can make or break a prize bracket). I'm less sure if anything close to that would qualify as "free", but it might be worth a look.
ReplyDeleteTom Jensen wrote:
ReplyDelete"If anyone has suggestions on some better, free polling service we could use that could keep people from gaming these polls I'd appreciate it, otherwise we may just stop doing them because it's not worth the energy."
Yes, I actually know a site (where your polls are already frequently posted by us):
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=68.0
Mr. Jensen, you could register as a user on this Forum, create the polls (which cannot be rigged anymore) and the Forum community can then take the vote.
;-)
Please tell me what you think about it.
Questions about NH anti-labor efforts and a generic state legislature question sure would be timely.
ReplyDeleteAnd I wonder if you could ask NH voters if they feel Democrats or Republicans are better for "job growth" or something like that- interesting with such a hard-right legislature in a swingy state.
By the way, sorry your poll got cheated on. So that's why everyone wanted to poll Oklahoma!
For New Hampshire:
ReplyDelete- Do you favor an Arizona style immigration law?
- Would you support an effort to repeal the gay marriage law?
- Add in Rudy Guiliani to the primary mix
For Georgia:
- Do you favor an Arizona style immigration law?
- Approval/disapproval of gay marriage and civil unions
- Add Herman Cain and of course Newt Gingrich to the primary mix
Two issues that have come up in the past in Georgia and will likely come up again in the future, and may be worth polling:
- Do you approve of legalizing gambling?
- Do you approve of legalizing medicinal marijuana
Would love to see numbers in support of same-sex marriage for both states.
ReplyDeleteooo ooo ooh, almost forgot. For Georgia see what happens if Mike Huckabee is removed from the mix. I wonder if this would make Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich become the front runner.
ReplyDeleteNew Hampshire
ReplyDeletePoll Lynch v. Lamontagne, Bradley, Stephen, Sununu, and Gregg.
Georgia is most interesting for the Obama-GOP match-ups of course.
I wouldn't do Barnes vs Deal again as the problem there was that Barnes ran as one thing and turned into another. I voted for him the first time but against him twice as did many Georgians. A better choice would be a hypothetical of Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed vs Deal.
ReplyDelete