Chaffetz vs Hatch (primary) General Chaffetz vs Mattheson Hatch vs Mattheson
North Carolina
Kay Hagan vs Elizabeth Dole rematch (heaven forbid Tom Jensen will actually listen this time and poll that) and poll Elaine Marshall as a potential dem replacement for governor versus Pat McCrory
Utah: *Statewide favorability of all three congressmen. It's a small state so you can do that. We will know who's on tap for statewide seats in the feature. *Matheson vs Chaffetz *Matheson vs Hatch *Stout vs Chaffetz *Stout vs Hatch *Is Hatch a moderate, liberal, or conservative? *Matheson vs Herbert *Mike Lee approvals *Jon Huntsman approval
North Carolina *What do you think of the recently introduced extreme Republican gerrymander?
You could ask North Carolinians like me what people think of GOP's 10-3 gerrymander in a state that went for Obama in 2008 and appears to hold steady again in 2012.
You could ask if they want an independent commission to draw districts.
Also, I guess ask about the proposed Gay Marriage ban that may come up to a referendum in 2012.
Utah should have tons of options: Obviously, here are my choices: 1 Romney vs. Huntsman 2 Primary polls without Romney, Huntsman, without both 3 Mike Lee included in primary 4 Mike Huckabee favorables/Vs. Obama (PLEASE!!!) 5 Orrin Hatch vs. Chaffetz/Matheson 6 BYU/Utah/Utah St/Weber State
Jim Matheson for statewide office in Utah I'm sure will be a popular demand, but I'll go ahead and add my voice: Matheson for Governor! Matheson for Senate!
I was disappointed not to see a generic state legislature question out of Florida. I really hope you all will test the generic state leg. question again in NC.
An interesting question would be whether any portion of Utah voters would not vote for a non-Mormon given the choice.
1. Do you think NC teachers cheat on End of Course Test?
2.Do you think Perdue is aware of any cheating?
3. Since Perdue is so tied to the NCAE money, do you think she would do anything about the cheating is she knew for a fact it was correct? 4. Do you think the new dropout rate is a real number or a false number by Perdue to win election?
5. Do you think the Democrats are justified to oppose redistricting since 200,000 more voted for Republicans in 2010 than Democrats in House of Representative races?
A Utah-specific batch of social issues polling would be interesting - "Would you vote for a non-Mormon? Would you vote for an atheist? A fundamentalist Baptist? A Jew?" and so on. The Civil War question would be good, coupled with "Who won the Civil War?" as a baseline. "What part of Utah do you live in?" with some general categories (northeast, northwest, southeast, southwest, Salt Lake City) might give some interesting crosstabs, particularly with the gay rights question (I am not up on what makes for Utahn political regions other than geography).
Thank you so much for doing Utah! There is really a lot to do there. As usual, I am going to name a few people in case you do primary polling. The people I name are only those who have said they are running, or have said they are considering bids. Thank you again!
Utah: Senate: Republicans: * U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch * Congressman Jason Chaffetz * State Senator Dan Liljenquist (how you say that, I have no clue)
Democrats: * Congressman Jim Matheson
Governor: Republicans: * Governor Gary Herbert * Congressman Rob Bishop * Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives Rebecca Lockhart * State Senator John Valentine * Former State Representative Craig Frank
Democrats: * Congressman Jim Matheson * Mayor of Salt Lake County and 2010 Dem nominee Peter Corroon
Other: * GOP Primary Poll (Maybe a Huntsman vs. Romney head to head - Huntsman and Romney are both Mormon and Huntsman was Governor for 4 years of Utah)
* Senator Mike Lee approval
___________________________________ North Carolina: Governor: Republican: * Former Charlotte Mayor and 2008 GOP nominee for Governor Pat McCrory
Democrat: * Governor Beverly Perdue
Other: * Senate Approval Ratings * Lt. Governor race? Any idea if there is anything on that front to poll?
I know you'll obviously poll Matheson vs. Hatch and Chaffetz, but you should poll at least one other Democrat against each of them just to see if this race is remotely close without him. Some names you could try are: Sam Granato (ran against Lee so probably has some name recognition) Jan Graham (former attorney general and most recent Democrat to hold statewide office)
Thanks so much for polling Utah! Cannot wait to see those results. Some suggestions:
- Orrin Hatch/Jason Chaffetz vs. Jim Matheson for Utah Senate (really, really looking forward to seeing this one) - gay marriage in both states (could be interesting considering the Mormon ties to campaigns like Prop 8 and Utah's extreme social conservatism; also North Carolina will probably have a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on the ballot in 2012, so seeing early numbers could be telling) - generic congressional ballot in North Carolina - thoughts on new redistricting map in North Carolina (fair/unfair?)
wt, Pantano can't even beat McIntyre in a more favorable 7th district, let alone statewide. I'd love for him to be the nominee against Hagan though. Ellmers would also get crushed, though maybe not as handily as Pantano. Dole won't run.
Why wont you guys poll the Dole vs Hagan rematch just for fun. You poll so much other useless stuff even polling a sports coach against Richard Burr, I think, just to show he couldnt reach 50%. I mean considering all the irrelevant stuff you poll in North Carolina I see zero reason why not to give this one question a try.
I'd love to see the polls man. I'd love to see the polls. If you can think of a better candidate for 2014, please switch him/her in for a survey. I just picked the first 3 NC names off the top of my head.
for NC a Kay Hagan vs. Richard Burr 2012 gov race would be fun.
Also a poll on Jesse Helms favorability as well as the great Sam Ervin.
For Utah can you poll peoples opioion if the would vote for a non morman for statewide office. Also a question on votes thoughts on Reed Smoot would be awesome.
If your talking 2014 vs Hagan, just three suggestions: * Congresswoman Virginia Foxx * Congresswoman Sue Myrick * Congressman Patrick McHenry
Maybe these names are a little better in quality. Bit early for 2014, but just wanted to throw my two cents in =)
Are any of these going to run? Perhaps not. But for the life of me, this time a year ago, I would have doubted Shelley Berkley running in Nevada, or Jeff Flake running in Arizona. Never know what is going to happen!
Ask them how they think the new Republicans 10/Democrats 3 map is "fair" and legal when 10 years ago when the Democrats did it, it was 7 Republicans/6 Democrats. They don't want people to remember that. Also ask them if they think it is right to try to cram all the African Americans (Democrats) into three districts.
Poll McIntyre v. Pantano in the new district. McIntyre's district went from 52% GOP to 55% GOP, but he is considered the likeliest GOP target to survive in NC.
The only NC republicans in congress who will have served more than two terms and be under 70 years old in 2014 are Patrick McHenry, 5 terms, age 39 and Renee Ellmers, 2 terms,50, assuming they get reelected. So poll them.
Poll some Democrats other than Matheson in the Utah races, so we can see what a rough Democratic baseline is and how much Matheson overperforms it. I would suggest the 2010 nominees for Gov and Senate, Peter Coroon and Sam Granato, respectively.
I know it's too late for this weekend poll, but in the future, you should definitely ask
"Would you be willing to reduce your living standard in order to balance the budget/cut national debt?"
"Would you rather raise taxes for yourself or cut entitlement programs (medicare/medicaid/social security)?"
"Do you think cuts in defense spending and entitlements will be needed if the budget is to be balanced without taxes being raised?"
"Do you think unemployment will be above 10 %, above 9 %, above 8 % or below 8 % in november 2012?"
The first and second question is all about people's priorities and willingness to make personal sacrifices.
The right answer to the third question is Yes, cuts in those programs will be needed if tax increases are to be avoided (just look at the number - you can cut off everything else and it still isn't balanced.
The fourth question is interesting because Obama supporters I'd imagine would be more optimistic about the economy. What if a lot of these people think unemployment will be below 8 %, and then on election day it turns out it's not? Will they vote Republican then? How low must the unemployment rate be for Obama not to disappoint his base?
You could also ask some variation of the fourth question, such as "If unemployment is above 10 %, who will you vote for?", or "If unemployment is below 8 %, who will you vote for?" to see how much the unemployment rate changes how people vote. If the poll shows that Obama will lose unless he can get unemployment below 8 %, or if it shows it has to be above 10 % for him to lose, then that's certainly interesting information.
Poll Shuler vs. McHenry in new 10th. And Shuler vs. generic R in new 11th.
ReplyDeleteChaffetz vs Hatch (primary)
ReplyDeleteGeneral
Chaffetz vs Mattheson
Hatch vs Mattheson
North Carolina
Kay Hagan vs Elizabeth Dole rematch (heaven forbid Tom Jensen will actually listen this time and poll that) and poll Elaine Marshall as a potential dem replacement for governor versus Pat McCrory
Utah:
ReplyDelete*Statewide favorability of all three congressmen. It's a small state so you can do that. We will know who's on tap for statewide seats in the feature.
*Matheson vs Chaffetz
*Matheson vs Hatch
*Stout vs Chaffetz
*Stout vs Hatch
*Is Hatch a moderate, liberal, or conservative?
*Matheson vs Herbert
*Mike Lee approvals
*Jon Huntsman approval
North Carolina
*What do you think of the recently introduced extreme Republican gerrymander?
You could ask North Carolinians like me what people think of GOP's 10-3 gerrymander in a state that went for Obama in 2008 and appears to hold steady again in 2012.
ReplyDeleteYou could ask if they want an independent commission to draw districts.
Also, I guess ask about the proposed Gay Marriage ban that may come up to a referendum in 2012.
Utah should have tons of options: Obviously, here are my choices: 1 Romney vs. Huntsman
ReplyDelete2 Primary polls without Romney, Huntsman, without both
3 Mike Lee included in primary
4 Mike Huckabee favorables/Vs. Obama (PLEASE!!!)
5 Orrin Hatch vs. Chaffetz/Matheson
6 BYU/Utah/Utah St/Weber State
Jim Matheson for UT-Sen & UT-Gov
ReplyDeleteUtah?
ReplyDeletePoll "Cardboard Poster of Hoover" in a match-up against Obama and see what we get.
That was a joke of course.
But I can imagine Romney getting about 80% here in UT.
Republican Presidential primary, obviously. Maybe this will be the one and only state to show Huntsman in double digits.
ReplyDeleteAlso check to see if Hatch is in any danger of a Tea Party challenge.
Questions on interracial marriage and polygamy could be interesting, considering the Mormons' historical positions on those issues.
Utah:
ReplyDelete1. Hatch as a third-party candidate?
2. Obama vs. someone who disparages the LDS Church
Jim Matheson for statewide office in Utah I'm sure will be a popular demand, but I'll go ahead and add my voice: Matheson for Governor! Matheson for Senate!
ReplyDeleteI was disappointed not to see a generic state legislature question out of Florida. I really hope you all will test the generic state leg. question again in NC.
An interesting question would be whether any portion of Utah voters would not vote for a non-Mormon given the choice.
Thanks for listening!
1. Do you think NC teachers cheat on End of Course Test?
ReplyDelete2.Do you think Perdue is aware of any cheating?
3. Since Perdue is so tied to the NCAE money, do you think she would do anything about the cheating is she knew for a fact it was correct?
4. Do you think the new dropout rate is a real number or a false number by Perdue to win election?
5. Do you think the Democrats are justified to oppose redistricting since 200,000 more voted for Republicans in 2010 than Democrats in House of Representative races?
A Utah-specific batch of social issues polling would be interesting - "Would you vote for a non-Mormon? Would you vote for an atheist? A fundamentalist Baptist? A Jew?" and so on. The Civil War question would be good, coupled with "Who won the Civil War?" as a baseline. "What part of Utah do you live in?" with some general categories (northeast, northwest, southeast, southwest, Salt Lake City) might give some interesting crosstabs, particularly with the gay rights question (I am not up on what makes for Utahn political regions other than geography).
ReplyDeleteFor North Carolina, all I've got is state leg.
Thank you so much for doing Utah! There is really a lot to do there. As usual, I am going to name a few people in case you do primary polling. The people I name are only those who have said they are running, or have said they are considering bids. Thank you again!
ReplyDeleteUtah:
Senate:
Republicans:
* U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch
* Congressman Jason Chaffetz
* State Senator Dan Liljenquist (how you say that, I have no clue)
Democrats:
* Congressman Jim Matheson
Governor:
Republicans:
* Governor Gary Herbert
* Congressman Rob Bishop
* Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives Rebecca Lockhart
* State Senator John Valentine
* Former State Representative Craig Frank
Democrats:
* Congressman Jim Matheson
* Mayor of Salt Lake County and 2010 Dem nominee Peter Corroon
Other:
* GOP Primary Poll (Maybe a Huntsman vs. Romney head to head - Huntsman and Romney are both Mormon and Huntsman was Governor for 4 years of Utah)
* Senator Mike Lee approval
___________________________________
North Carolina:
Governor:
Republican:
* Former Charlotte Mayor and 2008 GOP nominee for Governor Pat McCrory
Democrat:
* Governor Beverly Perdue
Other:
* Senate Approval Ratings
* Lt. Governor race? Any idea if there is anything on that front to poll?
Thank you again PPP!
What does it feel like to be the Democrat in Utah?
ReplyDeleteHow much do you love the awesome 10-3 map NC Republicans have rolled out?
I echo the Matheson - Chaffetz - Hatch 3-way race.
Marco Rubio/Susanna Martinez favorables in both states.
Hagan vs. Dole/Pantano/Ellmers, 2014.
We can't poll the new CDs, which haven't even been approved yet, but we wouldn't do CDs anyway. Just statewide.
ReplyDeleteI know you'll obviously poll Matheson vs. Hatch and Chaffetz, but you should poll at least one other Democrat against each of them just to see if this race is remotely close without him. Some names you could try are:
ReplyDeleteSam Granato (ran against Lee so probably has some name recognition)
Jan Graham (former attorney general and most recent Democrat to hold statewide office)
Thanks so much for polling Utah! Cannot wait to see those results. Some suggestions:
ReplyDelete- Orrin Hatch/Jason Chaffetz vs. Jim Matheson for Utah Senate (really, really looking forward to seeing this one)
- gay marriage in both states (could be interesting considering the Mormon ties to campaigns like Prop 8 and Utah's extreme social conservatism; also North Carolina will probably have a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on the ballot in 2012, so seeing early numbers could be telling)
- generic congressional ballot in North Carolina
- thoughts on new redistricting map in North Carolina (fair/unfair?)
Thanks so much for always taking public input!
wt, Pantano can't even beat McIntyre in a more favorable 7th district, let alone statewide. I'd love for him to be the nominee against Hagan though. Ellmers would also get crushed, though maybe not as handily as Pantano. Dole won't run.
ReplyDeleteWhy wont you guys poll the Dole vs Hagan rematch just for fun. You poll so much other useless stuff even polling a sports coach against Richard Burr, I think, just to show he couldnt reach 50%. I mean considering all the irrelevant stuff you poll in North Carolina I see zero reason why not to give this one question a try.
ReplyDeletePlease consider Kentucky and Michigan next week. Michigan -- it's been a while. Kentucky -- few polls.
ReplyDeleteFor NC, approval/disapproval for various Council of State office holders - Marshall, Cooper, Troxler, Goodwin.
ReplyDeleteAlso, approval/disapproval of GOP and Dem legislators.
And how about a few constitutional amendments, too? Gay marraige, abortion, school vouchers, creationism - all the GOP red-meat highlights.
I'd love to see the polls man. I'd love to see the polls. If you can think of a better candidate for 2014, please switch him/her in for a survey. I just picked the first 3 NC names off the top of my head.
ReplyDeletefor NC a Kay Hagan vs. Richard Burr 2012 gov race would be fun.
ReplyDeleteAlso a poll on Jesse Helms favorability as well as the great Sam Ervin.
For Utah can you poll peoples opioion if the would vote for a non morman for statewide office. Also a question on votes thoughts on Reed Smoot would be awesome.
Utah:
ReplyDeletePlease poll Gov. Herbert's approval and disapproval.
North Carolina:
Please poll if the NC Dems dumped Bev Perdue and replaced her with Roy Cooper - what a Roy Cooper vs. Pat McCrory match would be.
If your talking 2014 vs Hagan, just three suggestions:
ReplyDelete* Congresswoman Virginia Foxx
* Congresswoman Sue Myrick
* Congressman Patrick McHenry
Maybe these names are a little better in quality. Bit early for 2014, but just wanted to throw my two cents in =)
Are any of these going to run? Perhaps not. But for the life of me, this time a year ago, I would have doubted Shelley Berkley running in Nevada, or Jeff Flake running in Arizona. Never know what is going to happen!
Gay marriage in NC--think there's a reason Obama is holding back on support for it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, last chance to poll CA-36, even though no one thinks it's competitive as is really is.
Gay marriage is very topical in NC and Utah is very conservative so pls poll this question!
ReplyDeleteAsk them how they think the new Republicans 10/Democrats 3 map is "fair" and legal when 10 years ago when the Democrats did it, it was 7 Republicans/6 Democrats. They don't want people to remember that. Also ask them if they think it is right to try to cram all the African Americans (Democrats) into three districts.
ReplyDeleteHorse race poll with just the people who are running. That means no Perry, no Palin listed as options.
ReplyDeletePoll McIntyre v. Pantano in the new district. McIntyre's district went from 52% GOP to 55% GOP, but he is considered the likeliest GOP target to survive in NC.
ReplyDeleteThe only NC republicans in congress who will have served more than two terms and be under 70 years old in 2014 are Patrick McHenry, 5 terms, age 39 and Renee Ellmers, 2 terms,50, assuming they get reelected. So poll them.
ReplyDeletePoll some Democrats other than Matheson in the Utah races, so we can see what a rough Democratic baseline is and how much Matheson overperforms it. I would suggest the 2010 nominees for Gov and Senate, Peter Coroon and Sam Granato, respectively.
ReplyDeleteAsk about the popularity of Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx.
ReplyDeleteI know it's too late for this weekend poll, but in the future, you should definitely ask
ReplyDelete"Would you be willing to reduce your living standard in order to balance the budget/cut national debt?"
"Would you rather raise taxes for yourself or cut entitlement programs (medicare/medicaid/social security)?"
"Do you think cuts in defense spending and entitlements will be needed if the budget is to be balanced without taxes being raised?"
"Do you think unemployment will be above 10 %, above 9 %, above 8 % or below 8 % in november 2012?"
The first and second question is all about people's priorities and willingness to make personal sacrifices.
The right answer to the third question is Yes, cuts in those programs will be needed if tax increases are to be avoided (just look at the number - you can cut off everything else and it still isn't balanced.
The fourth question is interesting because Obama supporters I'd imagine would be more optimistic about the economy. What if a lot of these people think unemployment will be below 8 %, and then on election day it turns out it's not? Will they vote Republican then? How low must the unemployment rate be for Obama not to disappoint his base?
You could also ask some variation of the fourth question, such as "If unemployment is above 10 %, who will you vote for?", or "If unemployment is below 8 %, who will you vote for?" to see how much the unemployment rate changes how people vote. If the poll shows that Obama will lose unless he can get unemployment below 8 %, or if it shows it has to be above 10 % for him to lose, then that's certainly interesting information.