From our polls this week, here are all the races ranked in order of the percentage of undecideds:
Republican Treasurer 72
Republican Lieutenant Governor 69
Democratic Lieutenant Governor 65
Democratic Treasurer 64
Democratic Senate 58
Republican Governor 52
Democratic Superintendent 48
Democratic Governor 27
Republican President 10
Democratic President 8
What does it mean? You would expect the high visibility races- President, Governor, Senator- to have pretty low undecideds. That's the case for both presidential races and for the Democratic gubernatorial race. Not so much for the Democratic senate field or the Republican gubernatorial field though, both of which still have more than half of the respondents undecided.
That many undecideds means none of the candidates are even really capturing the attention of their fellow party members much less the general electorate. That doesn't mean it's impossible for Fred Smith, Bill Graham, Bob Orr, Kay Hagan, or Jim Neal to be successful next year but it does mean they need to start connecting with voters sooner than later if they're going to have a real chance.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Thursday, December 6, 2007
A tale of two headlines
It is always interesting how very different messages can be taken away from the same data.
This morning's Under the Dome item on our Republican gubernatorial poll says 'Poll good news for Perdue, McCrory.'
News 14 Carolina's headline for a story on the same poll is 'McCrory not favored in Gov. race.'
My take? I was surprised McCrory didn't finish first. The Republican field is pretty weak. When you have a three term state senator, a former judge, and someone who's never held office before running it seems like the mayor of Charlotte should be leading the way even without a campaign under way.
McCrory's performance is stunningly poor outside the Charlotte tv market though. He says his reason for considering a run is that Charlotte gets the shaft- that's fine but it's not a message likely to boost his standing in all the regions of the state where he's pulling 3 or 4 percent support.
The primary is now less than five months away. If McCrory really wants to get into this thing I don't think he has another month to make a decision, especially with Fred Smith's standing getting stronger and stronger.
For McCrory to be successful he needs to announce in the next couple weeks and come up with a compelling message quick.
I think he'll take his sweet time and decide not to run. He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would enjoy campaigning in Duplin County, and I think he's smart enough to realize he would have to do that kind of thing to be successful statewide.
This morning's Under the Dome item on our Republican gubernatorial poll says 'Poll good news for Perdue, McCrory.'
News 14 Carolina's headline for a story on the same poll is 'McCrory not favored in Gov. race.'
My take? I was surprised McCrory didn't finish first. The Republican field is pretty weak. When you have a three term state senator, a former judge, and someone who's never held office before running it seems like the mayor of Charlotte should be leading the way even without a campaign under way.
McCrory's performance is stunningly poor outside the Charlotte tv market though. He says his reason for considering a run is that Charlotte gets the shaft- that's fine but it's not a message likely to boost his standing in all the regions of the state where he's pulling 3 or 4 percent support.
The primary is now less than five months away. If McCrory really wants to get into this thing I don't think he has another month to make a decision, especially with Fred Smith's standing getting stronger and stronger.
For McCrory to be successful he needs to announce in the next couple weeks and come up with a compelling message quick.
I think he'll take his sweet time and decide not to run. He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would enjoy campaigning in Duplin County, and I think he's smart enough to realize he would have to do that kind of thing to be successful statewide.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Republican Tracking Poll: President
President:
Mike Huckabee 33
Rudy Giuliani 17
Fred Thompson 16
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 8
Ron Paul 3
Undecided 10
Other 3
After leading PPP's monthly polls since June, Fred Thompson fell to third while Mike Huckabee took a strong lead on the day before a major North Carolina fundraiser.
North Carolina Republican primary voters are conservative and want a fellow southern conservative to support for President. Initially they were strongly supportive of Thompson but his support declined each month after he officially announced his candidacy. The better voters got to know him the less they liked him. Huckabee has filled that void as a southern conservative North Carolina Republicans think they can support.
Huckabee's strong performance comes the day before a well publicized Greensboro fundraiser, which could be one contributor to his support. His margin over Giuliani is greatest in the Triad.
Full results here
Mike Huckabee 33
Rudy Giuliani 17
Fred Thompson 16
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 8
Ron Paul 3
Undecided 10
Other 3
After leading PPP's monthly polls since June, Fred Thompson fell to third while Mike Huckabee took a strong lead on the day before a major North Carolina fundraiser.
North Carolina Republican primary voters are conservative and want a fellow southern conservative to support for President. Initially they were strongly supportive of Thompson but his support declined each month after he officially announced his candidacy. The better voters got to know him the less they liked him. Huckabee has filled that void as a southern conservative North Carolina Republicans think they can support.
Huckabee's strong performance comes the day before a well publicized Greensboro fundraiser, which could be one contributor to his support. His margin over Giuliani is greatest in the Triad.
Full results here
Republican Tracking Poll: Governor
Governor without McCrory:
Fred Smith 25
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 6
Undecided 52
Governor with McCrory:
Fred Smith 20
Bill Graham 14
Pat McCrory 14
Bob Orr 4
Undecided 47
Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory would start with a strong regional base but little statewide support if he got into the Republican race for Governor. He earned the support of 44% of respondents in the Charlotte area and 18% of those within the 828 area code for western North Carolina, parts of which are within the Charlotte TV market. In the other four regions of the state, his support does not exceed 4% If he gets into the race he will have to get out of Charlotte and spend a lot of time and money building his visibility in the Triad, Triangle, and eastern North Carolina.
With or without McCrory, Fred Smith remains in the lead for a second month in a row in the PPP tracking poll. Bill Graham had led the rest of the year but he has been quiet lately while Smith embarked on a statewide barbecue tour that generated a lot of positive media attention and grassroots support.
The specter of a McCrory entrance into the race seems to affect all the current candidates equally rather than having a strong negative impact on the support of any individual candidate.
Full results here
Fred Smith 25
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 6
Undecided 52
Governor with McCrory:
Fred Smith 20
Bill Graham 14
Pat McCrory 14
Bob Orr 4
Undecided 47
Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory would start with a strong regional base but little statewide support if he got into the Republican race for Governor. He earned the support of 44% of respondents in the Charlotte area and 18% of those within the 828 area code for western North Carolina, parts of which are within the Charlotte TV market. In the other four regions of the state, his support does not exceed 4% If he gets into the race he will have to get out of Charlotte and spend a lot of time and money building his visibility in the Triad, Triangle, and eastern North Carolina.
With or without McCrory, Fred Smith remains in the lead for a second month in a row in the PPP tracking poll. Bill Graham had led the rest of the year but he has been quiet lately while Smith embarked on a statewide barbecue tour that generated a lot of positive media attention and grassroots support.
The specter of a McCrory entrance into the race seems to affect all the current candidates equally rather than having a strong negative impact on the support of any individual candidate.
Full results here
Republican Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
Lieutenant Governor:
Greg Dority 16
Robert Pittenger 15
Undecided 69
In the first poll for the Republican Lieutenant Governor primary former Congressional candidate Greg Dority holds a small lead on state senator Robert Pittenger. Each candidate shows a strong regional base. Pittenger is supported by 44% of Charlotte area respondents, while Dority has a double digit lead in eastern North Carolina where he ran against GK Butterfield in 2004.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge 15
Dale Folwell 12
Undecided 72
Daughtridge leads every region of the state except the Triad, where Folwell represents Forsyth County in the legislature. Daughtridge's showing is strongest in his native NE North Carolina.
Full results here
Greg Dority 16
Robert Pittenger 15
Undecided 69
In the first poll for the Republican Lieutenant Governor primary former Congressional candidate Greg Dority holds a small lead on state senator Robert Pittenger. Each candidate shows a strong regional base. Pittenger is supported by 44% of Charlotte area respondents, while Dority has a double digit lead in eastern North Carolina where he ran against GK Butterfield in 2004.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge 15
Dale Folwell 12
Undecided 72
Daughtridge leads every region of the state except the Triad, where Folwell represents Forsyth County in the legislature. Daughtridge's showing is strongest in his native NE North Carolina.
Full results here
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor and Lieutenant Governor
Governor:
Bev Perdue 41
Richard Moore 32
Undecided 27
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton 12
Pat Smathers 10
Hampton Dellinger 8
Dan Besse 6
Undecided 65
Last week there was a flurry of activity in the races to be the Democratic nominee for Governor and Lieutenant Governor.
Bev Perdue made a major policy proposal, Richard Moore had a press conference attacking it, and Perdue sent out a press release attacking Moore's attack.
Hampton Dellinger sent an e-mail out criticizing Walter Dalton's voting record, Dalton said Dellinger was exhibiting 'the worst aspect of the campaign season,' Pat Smathers said they should both focus more on the issues and proposed a series of debates, and most of the candidates said yes.
The sum effect of all this on PPP's December tracking poll? Not much at all. Bev Perdue's nine point lead over Richard Moore is in the same range as the 7-11 point lead she has shown in each PPP poll since August. And the order of Dalton, Smathers, Dellinger, and Besse in the Lieutenant Governor's race is the exact same it has been in our last three polls.
Why no movement? While last week's activity was interesting to folks who follow politics closely it's still far too long a time until the election for the average voter to be paying attention. There won't likely be a lot of change in these races that don't get a lot of attention until candidates start really spending money and reaching out to voters in a significant way. For the most part that won't be until March and April.
That doesn't mean that last week's events weren't important though. They have a significant impact on how races will be framed in the media and ultimately in the minds of voters further down the road.
Full Results.
Bev Perdue 41
Richard Moore 32
Undecided 27
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton 12
Pat Smathers 10
Hampton Dellinger 8
Dan Besse 6
Undecided 65
Last week there was a flurry of activity in the races to be the Democratic nominee for Governor and Lieutenant Governor.
Bev Perdue made a major policy proposal, Richard Moore had a press conference attacking it, and Perdue sent out a press release attacking Moore's attack.
Hampton Dellinger sent an e-mail out criticizing Walter Dalton's voting record, Dalton said Dellinger was exhibiting 'the worst aspect of the campaign season,' Pat Smathers said they should both focus more on the issues and proposed a series of debates, and most of the candidates said yes.
The sum effect of all this on PPP's December tracking poll? Not much at all. Bev Perdue's nine point lead over Richard Moore is in the same range as the 7-11 point lead she has shown in each PPP poll since August. And the order of Dalton, Smathers, Dellinger, and Besse in the Lieutenant Governor's race is the exact same it has been in our last three polls.
Why no movement? While last week's activity was interesting to folks who follow politics closely it's still far too long a time until the election for the average voter to be paying attention. There won't likely be a lot of change in these races that don't get a lot of attention until candidates start really spending money and reaching out to voters in a significant way. For the most part that won't be until March and April.
That doesn't mean that last week's events weren't important though. They have a significant impact on how races will be framed in the media and ultimately in the minds of voters further down the road.
Full Results.
Democratic Tracking Poll: President
President:
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 26
Barack Obama 24
Other 12
Undecided 8
Hillary Clinton regains the lead in North Carolina after being tied with John Edwards last month but the most noteworthy thing from this poll is Barack Obama's strongest performance since July, mirroring the trends in key primary states showing the race for the Democratic nomination tightening.
Obama's strongest performance across the state comes in the Triangle where he leads the way with the support of 31% of respondents. Obama's showing comes after a public appearance at North Carolina Central University in Durham last month.
Clinton leads among female voters, Edwards leads among white voters and male voters, and Obama leads among black voters. Edwards earned the support of only 3% of black respondents.
Regionally, Clinton leads the Charlotte area and SE North Carolina, Edwards leads the Triad and the Mountains, and Obama leads the Triangle and NE North Carolina.
Full Results.
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 26
Barack Obama 24
Other 12
Undecided 8
Hillary Clinton regains the lead in North Carolina after being tied with John Edwards last month but the most noteworthy thing from this poll is Barack Obama's strongest performance since July, mirroring the trends in key primary states showing the race for the Democratic nomination tightening.
Obama's strongest performance across the state comes in the Triangle where he leads the way with the support of 31% of respondents. Obama's showing comes after a public appearance at North Carolina Central University in Durham last month.
Clinton leads among female voters, Edwards leads among white voters and male voters, and Obama leads among black voters. Edwards earned the support of only 3% of black respondents.
Regionally, Clinton leads the Charlotte area and SE North Carolina, Edwards leads the Triad and the Mountains, and Obama leads the Triangle and NE North Carolina.
Full Results.
Democratic Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
US Senate:
Kay Hagan 22
Jim Neal 13
John Ross Hendrix 7
Undecided 58
Hagan leads Neal in every region of the state but notably has the support of 44% of respondents from the Triad where she has represented Greensboro in the state Senate for nine years. She doesn't exceed 21% in any other area.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 15
David Young 15
Michael Weisel 6
Undecided 64
This race shows a notable gender gap. While Young leads 22-15 among male respondents, Cowell has the 15-10 edge with women.
Superintendent of Public Instruction:
June Atkinson 38
Eddie Davis 13
Undecided 48
In the three months we've been tracking this race Atkinson's lead has grown 17 points to 22 and now to 25.
Full results.
Kay Hagan 22
Jim Neal 13
John Ross Hendrix 7
Undecided 58
Hagan leads Neal in every region of the state but notably has the support of 44% of respondents from the Triad where she has represented Greensboro in the state Senate for nine years. She doesn't exceed 21% in any other area.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 15
David Young 15
Michael Weisel 6
Undecided 64
This race shows a notable gender gap. While Young leads 22-15 among male respondents, Cowell has the 15-10 edge with women.
Superintendent of Public Instruction:
June Atkinson 38
Eddie Davis 13
Undecided 48
In the three months we've been tracking this race Atkinson's lead has grown 17 points to 22 and now to 25.
Full results.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Who will McCrory hurt?
We'll have a more exact answer to that question later this week after we do the tracking poll but I am guessing it will be Bill Graham.
At least initially McCrory's support is likely to be regional. He has been extremely focused on Charlotte- in fact he was quoted in the Charlotte Observer this morning as saying his reason for running would be 'the continued lack of respect for Charlotte and other metropolitan areas.' Notice Charlotte first, other metropolitan areas second rather than a 'metropolitan areas such as Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, etc.' answer. He hasn't done much to build statewide visibility and I'm not aware of him providing much leadership within the Republican party at the state level either.
So his strongest support at the outset of the campaign is likely to be in the 704 area code. Our polls over the last three months have shown that to be Bill Graham's domain by a wide margin. In November he led Fred Smith there 19-12 while trailing 25-17 overall. In October he had 22% there followed by Bob Orr with 6% and Fred Smith with 5%. And in September he had 31%, far out pacing Orr who had 8% and Smith who had just 3%.
It makes sense that the 704 area code has given Graham his strongest regional support since he lives in Salisbury. But my guess is that when we test McCrory, Graham will fall to second in his own region- and that it could have a strong enough impact to ensure that he either stays second behind Smith where he finished in our poll last month or even falls to third behind Smith and McCrory, depending on what the Mayor's level of support is.
We'll find out later this week.
At least initially McCrory's support is likely to be regional. He has been extremely focused on Charlotte- in fact he was quoted in the Charlotte Observer this morning as saying his reason for running would be 'the continued lack of respect for Charlotte and other metropolitan areas.' Notice Charlotte first, other metropolitan areas second rather than a 'metropolitan areas such as Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, etc.' answer. He hasn't done much to build statewide visibility and I'm not aware of him providing much leadership within the Republican party at the state level either.
So his strongest support at the outset of the campaign is likely to be in the 704 area code. Our polls over the last three months have shown that to be Bill Graham's domain by a wide margin. In November he led Fred Smith there 19-12 while trailing 25-17 overall. In October he had 22% there followed by Bob Orr with 6% and Fred Smith with 5%. And in September he had 31%, far out pacing Orr who had 8% and Smith who had just 3%.
It makes sense that the 704 area code has given Graham his strongest regional support since he lives in Salisbury. But my guess is that when we test McCrory, Graham will fall to second in his own region- and that it could have a strong enough impact to ensure that he either stays second behind Smith where he finished in our poll last month or even falls to third behind Smith and McCrory, depending on what the Mayor's level of support is.
We'll find out later this week.
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