Barack Obama's approval rating in our national survey for October is 51%, the fifth month in a row it has fallen somewhere in the 50-52% range.
The big picture on his numbers remains this: pretty much everyone (89%) who voted for him likes the job he's doing. Pretty much everyone (85%) who voted for John McCain doesn't like the job he's doing. Almost a year since he was elected his overall political standing is pretty much unchanged. If he had to stand for reelection today his performance would be more or less what it was last November.
Also seeing very little change over the months is public opinion on Obama's health care plan. 45% of voters oppose it and 42% support it, reflecting a general trend of opposition to him on the issue in the mid 40s and support for him on it in the low 40s. For the most part voters have made up their minds and they're not changing them.
In our monthly measurement of how far Obama's political opponents will go in expressing their dislike of him we have some good news: only 5% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of his daughters compared to 54% who see them in a positive light. That is at least one line most people are not willing to cross.
Saying that Obama doesn't love America seems to be fair game though. 48% of Republicans express that sentiment while 25% are unsure and just 27% will grant that the President does love the country. Overall 59% of voters think Obama loves America while 26% think he doesn't, and 14% are unsure.
Those numbers track our 'birther' numbers from September almost exactly- 59% said Obama was born in the United States while 23% said he was not and 18% were unsure. There clearly is about a quarter of the country that is so partisan in its sentiments against Obama that it will go so far as to say he doesn't love the country, isn't a legitimate US citizen, etc. There are surely more things that could be added to the list.
Full results here
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Thoughts on the Gingrich/ABC Poll
Kind of an amusing little spat yesterday between Newt Gingrich and ABC Polling Director Gary Langer.
The crux of it is this: ABC says only 20% of voters identify as Republicans, Gingrich says that's bunk and that most other pollsters tell a different story.
The problem is that they're really talking about two different things. ABC was polling all adults, and the pollster.com party identification chart shows that among all adults the average Republican identification is 20.7%. But when you look at party id among registered and likely voters you find 34.3% of voters in the country are Republicans. Those are more the polls Gingrich was referring to. The national poll we're releasing today of registered voters falls close to that number- 33%.
So really they're kind of both right.
The 20% Republican number among all adults is interesting but has no relevance to any future elections because it includes a large number of respondents who don't even vote in Presidential contests, much less midterm elections The 51-39 lead on the generic ballot in that poll is likewise meaningless because you will usually find that less than 40% of the voting age population turns out next year. There's nothing wrong with the poll, but what they chose to measure just doesn't really have any real world implications for the 2010 election. So I guess you can count me as one Democrat who wasn't particularly heartened by that particular survey.
My sense on the generic Congressional ballot right now is that with registered voters you have a single digit Democratic lead (what our poll coming out Friday shows) and that with likely voters you're at about a tie. Just about no one except Rasmussen is polling likely voters yet though so it's hard to say- we're not going to narrow our sample to likely voters more than a year away from a particular election.
The crux of it is this: ABC says only 20% of voters identify as Republicans, Gingrich says that's bunk and that most other pollsters tell a different story.
The problem is that they're really talking about two different things. ABC was polling all adults, and the pollster.com party identification chart shows that among all adults the average Republican identification is 20.7%. But when you look at party id among registered and likely voters you find 34.3% of voters in the country are Republicans. Those are more the polls Gingrich was referring to. The national poll we're releasing today of registered voters falls close to that number- 33%.
So really they're kind of both right.
The 20% Republican number among all adults is interesting but has no relevance to any future elections because it includes a large number of respondents who don't even vote in Presidential contests, much less midterm elections The 51-39 lead on the generic ballot in that poll is likewise meaningless because you will usually find that less than 40% of the voting age population turns out next year. There's nothing wrong with the poll, but what they chose to measure just doesn't really have any real world implications for the 2010 election. So I guess you can count me as one Democrat who wasn't particularly heartened by that particular survey.
My sense on the generic Congressional ballot right now is that with registered voters you have a single digit Democratic lead (what our poll coming out Friday shows) and that with likely voters you're at about a tie. Just about no one except Rasmussen is polling likely voters yet though so it's hard to say- we're not going to narrow our sample to likely voters more than a year away from a particular election.
McDonnell pulling away
Bob McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead over Creigh Deeds in his quest to be Virginia's next Governor. He now leads 52-40, up from 48-43 three weeks ago.
McDonnell's standing is largely the result of two things: considerable support from independents and a disengaged Democratic electorate. With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31. And while Barack Obama won Virginia by six points last year, the voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.
That lack of Democratic enthusiasm has been the story for much of the general election campaign. 56% of McDonnell supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall while only 34% of Deeds' backers share that sentiment.
During September Deeds had seemed to get some momentum with the 'thesis' issue but now 54% of voters say they think his campaign has put too much focus on that. 69% of Republicans predictably feel that way but so do 62% of independents and even 30% of Democrats.
While they've gotten a lot less attention it actually seems that McDonnell's attacks on Deeds have been more effective. When we first polled the general election in early July 29% of voters in the state had an unfavorable opinion of Deeds. Now 48% do. McDonnell's negatives have increased only from 32% to 35% during that time. At the start of the campaign they both had a net favorability rating of +19. Now McDonnell's is +21 and Deeds' is -7.
Deeds' difficulties are having implications down the ballot. Ken Cuccinelli leads Steve Shannon 52-37 for Attorney General and Bill Bolling has a 49-39 advantage over Jody Wagner for Lieutenant Governor. Beyond that Republicans lead 46-36 on the generic ballot for the House of Delegates.
We still don't find evidence of a lot of Obama/McDonnell voters- they account for less than 5% of the electorate. Deeds' problems are almost exclusively due to his inability to engage the Democratic base. The three groups of voters most critical to Obama's success in the state last year were women, African Americans, and young folks. Deeds trails 51-42 with women, only leads 68-20 with blacks when Democrats usually receive at least 80% of their votes, and is tied at 44 with voters under 30.
Deeds should receive some benefit in getting Democrats more interested from Bill Clinton's visit yesterday and the one from Barack Obama coming next week- but based on where he stands right now he needs to turn out 200,000-300,000 more Democrats than are currently planning to vote, and that is quite a tall order with just 13 days to go.
Full results here
McDonnell's standing is largely the result of two things: considerable support from independents and a disengaged Democratic electorate. With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31. And while Barack Obama won Virginia by six points last year, the voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.
That lack of Democratic enthusiasm has been the story for much of the general election campaign. 56% of McDonnell supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall while only 34% of Deeds' backers share that sentiment.
During September Deeds had seemed to get some momentum with the 'thesis' issue but now 54% of voters say they think his campaign has put too much focus on that. 69% of Republicans predictably feel that way but so do 62% of independents and even 30% of Democrats.
While they've gotten a lot less attention it actually seems that McDonnell's attacks on Deeds have been more effective. When we first polled the general election in early July 29% of voters in the state had an unfavorable opinion of Deeds. Now 48% do. McDonnell's negatives have increased only from 32% to 35% during that time. At the start of the campaign they both had a net favorability rating of +19. Now McDonnell's is +21 and Deeds' is -7.
Deeds' difficulties are having implications down the ballot. Ken Cuccinelli leads Steve Shannon 52-37 for Attorney General and Bill Bolling has a 49-39 advantage over Jody Wagner for Lieutenant Governor. Beyond that Republicans lead 46-36 on the generic ballot for the House of Delegates.
We still don't find evidence of a lot of Obama/McDonnell voters- they account for less than 5% of the electorate. Deeds' problems are almost exclusively due to his inability to engage the Democratic base. The three groups of voters most critical to Obama's success in the state last year were women, African Americans, and young folks. Deeds trails 51-42 with women, only leads 68-20 with blacks when Democrats usually receive at least 80% of their votes, and is tied at 44 with voters under 30.
Deeds should receive some benefit in getting Democrats more interested from Bill Clinton's visit yesterday and the one from Barack Obama coming next week- but based on where he stands right now he needs to turn out 200,000-300,000 more Democrats than are currently planning to vote, and that is quite a tall order with just 13 days to go.
Full results here
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Tomorrow's Virginia Poll
For months our discussion of the Virginia Gubernatorial race has focused on the issue of enthusiasm- and the lack of it among Democratic voters.
Here are some very telling numbers from the poll we'll be releasing tomorrow:
-56% of Bob McDonnell voters are 'very excited' about casting their ballot for Governor this fall. Only 34% of Creigh Deeds supporters are.
-29% of Deeds voters are 'not very excited' about voting this fall. Only 16% of McDonnell's express that sentiment.
And keep in mind this lack of enthusiasm among Deeds voters is among those who are planning to vote anyway. But you can see with those numbers why many Democrats/Obama voters just aren't coming out at all.
We're looking at a McCain +6 electorate this year in a state that was Obama +6 last year. There's no path to victory if that stays true through election day. We'll see how much good the visits from Obama, Bill Clinton, and other leading national Democrats do in the last few weeks but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Poll out in the morning.
Here are some very telling numbers from the poll we'll be releasing tomorrow:
-56% of Bob McDonnell voters are 'very excited' about casting their ballot for Governor this fall. Only 34% of Creigh Deeds supporters are.
-29% of Deeds voters are 'not very excited' about voting this fall. Only 16% of McDonnell's express that sentiment.
And keep in mind this lack of enthusiasm among Deeds voters is among those who are planning to vote anyway. But you can see with those numbers why many Democrats/Obama voters just aren't coming out at all.
We're looking at a McCain +6 electorate this year in a state that was Obama +6 last year. There's no path to victory if that stays true through election day. We'll see how much good the visits from Obama, Bill Clinton, and other leading national Democrats do in the last few weeks but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Poll out in the morning.
Voters just don't get it
Olympia Snowe's approval rating on health care with Democrats who support a public option: 70/15
Olympia Snowe's approval rating on health care with Democrats who oppose a public option: 37/53
Just more confirmation of my feeling that most voters have no clue when it comes to the health care debate, and the politicians should just ignore all the polls and do whatever they think is right.
Full poll on Snowe out tomorrow.
Olympia Snowe's approval rating on health care with Democrats who oppose a public option: 37/53
Just more confirmation of my feeling that most voters have no clue when it comes to the health care debate, and the politicians should just ignore all the polls and do whatever they think is right.
Full poll on Snowe out tomorrow.
Broader Implications of NY-23
Could the Doug Hoffman candidacy in NY-23 become a broader movement next year?
We asked two forms of the generic Congressional ballot question on our national poll this week- one was the standard Democrat/Republican choice and the other was a Democrat/Republican/Independent or Third Party choice.
Reflecting the disgust many voters are feeling with both parties right now, 22% of respondents said they would choose an independent or third party candidate. Predictably 45% of independent identifying voters said they would but so did 19% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats.
The fact that twice as many GOP voters as Democrats would prefer to vote for a third way instead of their own party next year could seriously confound Republican hopes of making large gains in the House and Senate.
72% of the Republicans expressing a wish to vote for a third party candidate are conservatives and 47% of them think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal. That is the exact sentiment Hoffman is tapping into.
Just as the Republicans helped Ralph Nader get on the ballot in 2004, Democrats might do themselves a favor in some key races next year by getting someone to the right of the GOP nominee into the field. It certainly seems like it could give them a gift in NY-23.
We asked two forms of the generic Congressional ballot question on our national poll this week- one was the standard Democrat/Republican choice and the other was a Democrat/Republican/Independent or Third Party choice.
Reflecting the disgust many voters are feeling with both parties right now, 22% of respondents said they would choose an independent or third party candidate. Predictably 45% of independent identifying voters said they would but so did 19% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats.
The fact that twice as many GOP voters as Democrats would prefer to vote for a third way instead of their own party next year could seriously confound Republican hopes of making large gains in the House and Senate.
72% of the Republicans expressing a wish to vote for a third party candidate are conservatives and 47% of them think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal. That is the exact sentiment Hoffman is tapping into.
Just as the Republicans helped Ralph Nader get on the ballot in 2004, Democrats might do themselves a favor in some key races next year by getting someone to the right of the GOP nominee into the field. It certainly seems like it could give them a gift in NY-23.
Tied in Maine
Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.
With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close.
One determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate. Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older voters.
Opinion on the issue is predictably polarized along party lines but perhaps not as much as you would expect. 25% of Democrats support rejecting the law while 23% of Republicans oppose doing so. There's a higher level of party crossover on this question than there is for instance on President Obama's approval rating in the state where only 16% of Republicans give him good marks and just 13% of Democrats think he's doing a poor job.
Interestingly white voters in the state oppose the referendum by a 49-47 margin, but nonwhite voters support it 55-35. That's a small swath of the electorate in Maine but it's enough to create an overall tie in these numbers.
It's going to be a close one!
Full results here
With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close.
One determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate. Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older voters.
Opinion on the issue is predictably polarized along party lines but perhaps not as much as you would expect. 25% of Democrats support rejecting the law while 23% of Republicans oppose doing so. There's a higher level of party crossover on this question than there is for instance on President Obama's approval rating in the state where only 16% of Republicans give him good marks and just 13% of Democrats think he's doing a poor job.
Interestingly white voters in the state oppose the referendum by a 49-47 margin, but nonwhite voters support it 55-35. That's a small swath of the electorate in Maine but it's enough to create an overall tie in these numbers.
It's going to be a close one!
Full results here
Monday, October 19, 2009
The Rest of the Stuff
Besides Maine we also have our Virginia and national polls coming out this week starting Wednesday. Here's the tentative schedule:
Wednesday:
-We'll have our newest Virginia Governor numbers. Do voters think Deeds is overplaying McDonnell's thesis? Is the electorate trending more Democratic or Republican? Those are some of the key issues we're going to delve into.
-On the national survey we'll have our monthly look at Obama's approval and where health care is. We also took your suggestion to look at how his daughters are perceived- do Republicans dislike even them?- and whether voters think he 'loves' America.
Thursday:
-The monthly 2012 poll. We swapped Tim Pawlenty in for Newt Gingrich/Jeb Bush so we'll have match ups with him, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee. We asked voters this month what they think of the Mormon religion to try to get a better idea of the impact that could have on Romney's prospects.
-Virginia approvals poll- the most noteworthy thing we looked at was a Tim Kaine/Bob McDonnell contest. How much of the problem for Democrats in Virginia is the national climate and how much of it is just Creigh Deeds? Of course the question is imperfect since Kaine isn't running a campaign and the likely voters are being determined by who Deeds can get out but it should still be interesting.
Friday:
-Looking at Congress. What do voters think of the Democrats and Republicans and how is the generic ballot stacking up? We also looked at whether voters think Congressional Democrats and Republicans are too liberal or too conservative, and tried to gauge how much support there is for third parties right now.
We also asked some extremely silly questions about Balloon Boy that I want to see the results for before deciding what release to include them with or whether to do a separate one.
Stay tuned for all that over the course of this week, and next week we'll have New Jersey, Virginia, and Charlotte Mayoral polls.
Wednesday:
-We'll have our newest Virginia Governor numbers. Do voters think Deeds is overplaying McDonnell's thesis? Is the electorate trending more Democratic or Republican? Those are some of the key issues we're going to delve into.
-On the national survey we'll have our monthly look at Obama's approval and where health care is. We also took your suggestion to look at how his daughters are perceived- do Republicans dislike even them?- and whether voters think he 'loves' America.
Thursday:
-The monthly 2012 poll. We swapped Tim Pawlenty in for Newt Gingrich/Jeb Bush so we'll have match ups with him, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee. We asked voters this month what they think of the Mormon religion to try to get a better idea of the impact that could have on Romney's prospects.
-Virginia approvals poll- the most noteworthy thing we looked at was a Tim Kaine/Bob McDonnell contest. How much of the problem for Democrats in Virginia is the national climate and how much of it is just Creigh Deeds? Of course the question is imperfect since Kaine isn't running a campaign and the likely voters are being determined by who Deeds can get out but it should still be interesting.
Friday:
-Looking at Congress. What do voters think of the Democrats and Republicans and how is the generic ballot stacking up? We also looked at whether voters think Congressional Democrats and Republicans are too liberal or too conservative, and tried to gauge how much support there is for third parties right now.
We also asked some extremely silly questions about Balloon Boy that I want to see the results for before deciding what release to include them with or whether to do a separate one.
Stay tuned for all that over the course of this week, and next week we'll have New Jersey, Virginia, and Charlotte Mayoral polls.
Looking at Gay Marriage Polling
Our Maine poll tomorrow is going to show a much rosier picture for opponents of same sex marriage than two other polls released recently by Pan Atlantic SMS and Democracy Corps, which showed the referendum failing by an average of 51/42.
It is of course always possible that we're wrong. But I think it's more likely that this is one issue where automated polls might have an advantage over live interviewers. There is probably some segment of the population that knows opposing same sex marriage is wrong and not intellectually defensible but still does. Those are the kinds of folks who might tell an interviewer what they believe they should think rather than what they do think.
Perhaps someone with more time can do a more thorough look at how polling on gay marriage and affirmative action bans reflected the actual results, but on Proposition 8 in California last year three IVR polls from SurveyUSA showed it passing by an average of 47/46 while the Field Poll and Public Policy Institute of California, both using live interviewers, showed it failing by an average of 51/44. It's a limited sample size but there was an eight point difference on the margin between live interview and automated polls. And of course the ultimate result, passage by a margin of 52-48, was not something any pollster showed in the last couple weeks of the campaign.
Because the referendum is so close we're probably going to sneak in another poll of it between now and November 3rd.
It is of course always possible that we're wrong. But I think it's more likely that this is one issue where automated polls might have an advantage over live interviewers. There is probably some segment of the population that knows opposing same sex marriage is wrong and not intellectually defensible but still does. Those are the kinds of folks who might tell an interviewer what they believe they should think rather than what they do think.
Perhaps someone with more time can do a more thorough look at how polling on gay marriage and affirmative action bans reflected the actual results, but on Proposition 8 in California last year three IVR polls from SurveyUSA showed it passing by an average of 47/46 while the Field Poll and Public Policy Institute of California, both using live interviewers, showed it failing by an average of 51/44. It's a limited sample size but there was an eight point difference on the margin between live interview and automated polls. And of course the ultimate result, passage by a margin of 52-48, was not something any pollster showed in the last couple weeks of the campaign.
Because the referendum is so close we're probably going to sneak in another poll of it between now and November 3rd.
Maine Poll Preview
Tuesday:
We'll release the numbers on the gay marriage ban. It pretty much literally could not be any closer and will all come down to who turns out. Judging by the approval rating we found for Obama in the state it looks like it will be a more conservative leaning electorate than what the state saw last fall. It could be determined by the age distribution of the voters- do young people come out or do senior citizens dominate the electorate?
Wednesday:
Fascinating numbers for Olympia Snowe. Her approval rating with Democrats is 25 points higher than with Republicans- in fact her approval numbers with Democrats are better than they are for many of the Democratic Senators we've polled on across the country this year. There doesn't seem to be a huge amount of support for switching her parties though. We'll also look at Obama and the health care issue.
Thursday:
The contest to be the state's next Governor is wide open with none of the candidates very well known. One thing that may be contributing to Republicans having an opportunity here are extremely weak approval numbers for John Baldacci. With a huge number of candidates we just had to pick a couple Democrats and Republicans to test to get a general idea of the lay of the land and none of the match ups we looked at showed anyone getting better than 34%.
Stay tuned!
We'll release the numbers on the gay marriage ban. It pretty much literally could not be any closer and will all come down to who turns out. Judging by the approval rating we found for Obama in the state it looks like it will be a more conservative leaning electorate than what the state saw last fall. It could be determined by the age distribution of the voters- do young people come out or do senior citizens dominate the electorate?
Wednesday:
Fascinating numbers for Olympia Snowe. Her approval rating with Democrats is 25 points higher than with Republicans- in fact her approval numbers with Democrats are better than they are for many of the Democratic Senators we've polled on across the country this year. There doesn't seem to be a huge amount of support for switching her parties though. We'll also look at Obama and the health care issue.
Thursday:
The contest to be the state's next Governor is wide open with none of the candidates very well known. One thing that may be contributing to Republicans having an opportunity here are extremely weak approval numbers for John Baldacci. With a huge number of candidates we just had to pick a couple Democrats and Republicans to test to get a general idea of the lay of the land and none of the match ups we looked at showed anyone getting better than 34%.
Stay tuned!
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