According to the most recent survey by Public Policy Polling, North Carolina voters who have been slammed by rising gas prices show overwhelming support for both a temporary suspension of the NC gas tax, as well as drilling for oil off the coast of NC. When asked about support for the suspension of the gas tax, 58% said they would show support, 29% said they would not, and 14% said they didn't know. Similarly, when asked about support for drilling off the coast of NC, 54% said they would support it, 26% said they would not, and 20% said they didn't know.
These numbers aren't necessarily surprising, considering the incredible strain rising gas prices has put on the public's wallet as well as the economy. It also seems fitting that when asked about whether voters thought offshore drilling would have an immediate effect on alleviating gas prices, it was split down the middle, with 41% saying yes, 41% saying no, and 17% saying they didn't know.
The energy crisis has proved to be a multi-faceted problem with experts proposing countless solutions, but it's hard to believe that any could provide immediate relief for drivers/energy consumers. Voters who support a gas tax holiday would propose that spending their savings on something over than gas would help stimulate the economy, but it seems as though many people would just do the opposite and buy more gas instead. There is also the recently-debated problem of speculation, which some argue could be alleviated by offshore drilling. Others simply argue that we can't fight the laws of supply and demand, with growing nations like India and China putting the strain on oil producers.
Regardless of the solution though, voters seem to be supporting an overall shift toward conservation. In this sense, the poll is encouraging, showing that 70% of voters say that the increase in gas prices has had a strong impact on their attempts to conserve energy, as well as 57% saying they would support an increase in renewable resources technology in the future.
Energy Policy and the Economy will surely be two of the most important issues coming into the election, with 70% and 82% of voters saying this, respectively, so it will be interesting to see how candidates assume or change their stances accordingly.
Post by Curtis Labban, PPP Summer Fellow
Full results here.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Friday, July 4, 2008
One more note on McHenry and Polling
Dee Stewart and the Patrick McHenry campaign say PPP has no credibility, but you have to wonder about their own internal polling.
Right before the primary in May, McHenry put out a poll showing himself winning 67-16. The margin ended up being 67-33. Did every single undecided break in Sigmon's way? I don't think so. So their pollster missed the margin by 17 points.
I'll guarantee right here and now that if we do a poll in the 10th District less than a week out from the election and get the margin wrong by 17 points I'll leave the business. It's funny to see them saying we have no credibility when the poll they put out most recently missed the final outcome by such a large margin.
Right before the primary in May, McHenry put out a poll showing himself winning 67-16. The margin ended up being 67-33. Did every single undecided break in Sigmon's way? I don't think so. So their pollster missed the margin by 17 points.
I'll guarantee right here and now that if we do a poll in the 10th District less than a week out from the election and get the margin wrong by 17 points I'll leave the business. It's funny to see them saying we have no credibility when the poll they put out most recently missed the final outcome by such a large margin.
Dee Stewart: Hypocrite
Dee Stewart is Patrick McHenry's political consultant. When we put our poll out on his race last week he slammed us to reporters from both the Lenoir News-Topic and the Hickory Daily Record.
Dee and his clients haven't always had such a dim view of Public Policy Polling though. Dee was also the consultant for Bill Graham's disastrously unsuccessful candidacy for Governor. It may seem hard to believe now, but Graham wasn't always doing as badly as his 9% finish might make you think.
One of those times he was doing better was last July. PPP put out a poll showing Graham with a 14 point lead in the primary. Stewart and the Graham campaign thought so much of our polling then that he put out a whole press release about it.
Dee Stewart's trying to have it both ways. If we were worth citing last July when our numbers boded well for his client, then he deserves to get called out now for saying that our polls have 'no credibility.' He sure wasn't singing that song then, and we have made no changes in our basic methodology since that time.
Dee and his clients haven't always had such a dim view of Public Policy Polling though. Dee was also the consultant for Bill Graham's disastrously unsuccessful candidacy for Governor. It may seem hard to believe now, but Graham wasn't always doing as badly as his 9% finish might make you think.
One of those times he was doing better was last July. PPP put out a poll showing Graham with a 14 point lead in the primary. Stewart and the Graham campaign thought so much of our polling then that he put out a whole press release about it.
Dee Stewart's trying to have it both ways. If we were worth citing last July when our numbers boded well for his client, then he deserves to get called out now for saying that our polls have 'no credibility.' He sure wasn't singing that song then, and we have made no changes in our basic methodology since that time.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Sheriff Taylor Would Split His Ticket
Who would Andy Taylor vote for President?
John McCain 35
Barack Obama 25
Bob Barr 5
Who would Andy Taylor vote for Governor?
Bev Perdue 34
Pat McCrory 23
Michael Munger 6
North Carolinians think that if Sheriff Taylor was voting today, he'd be a ticket splitter, going Republican for President and Democratic for Governor.
The good Sheriff always came across as a moderate Democrat, and the voting pattern respondents think he would adopt is one that explains why North Carolina votes Republican for President election after election while continuing by and large to elect Democratic Governors.
It's surprising to see so many folks think he would vote Libertarian, but then again given how bumbling most of the people sent down from Raleigh to watch over him through the years were one can see why he would think reducing the size of government and returning power to the local level would be a prudent move.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few Sheriffs across our state who will be voting this exact same way this fall- for North Carolina to go Democratic in the Presidential race they'll have to nominate a candidate who can nail down those Andy Taylor style voters.
Full results here.
John McCain 35
Barack Obama 25
Bob Barr 5
Who would Andy Taylor vote for Governor?
Bev Perdue 34
Pat McCrory 23
Michael Munger 6
North Carolinians think that if Sheriff Taylor was voting today, he'd be a ticket splitter, going Republican for President and Democratic for Governor.
The good Sheriff always came across as a moderate Democrat, and the voting pattern respondents think he would adopt is one that explains why North Carolina votes Republican for President election after election while continuing by and large to elect Democratic Governors.
It's surprising to see so many folks think he would vote Libertarian, but then again given how bumbling most of the people sent down from Raleigh to watch over him through the years were one can see why he would think reducing the size of government and returning power to the local level would be a prudent move.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few Sheriffs across our state who will be voting this exact same way this fall- for North Carolina to go Democratic in the Presidential race they'll have to nominate a candidate who can nail down those Andy Taylor style voters.
Full results here.
Andy Griffith Favorability
Favorable Opinion 56%
Unfavorable Opinion 9%
No Opinion 35%
Andy Griffith's net favorability with North Carolina voters of +47% is something any politician would dream of, but there is some slight indication that Republicans in the state haven't been completely thrilled with his political activism on behalf of Bev Perdue and Mike Easley over the last decade. While just 5% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him, 11% of Republicans do.
I figured the 'no opinion' response would be higher among younger respondents but there isn't any great disparity between age groups on that issue, an indication of Griffith's timeless appeal.
Full results here.
Unfavorable Opinion 9%
No Opinion 35%
Andy Griffith's net favorability with North Carolina voters of +47% is something any politician would dream of, but there is some slight indication that Republicans in the state haven't been completely thrilled with his political activism on behalf of Bev Perdue and Mike Easley over the last decade. While just 5% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him, 11% of Republicans do.
I figured the 'no opinion' response would be higher among younger respondents but there isn't any great disparity between age groups on that issue, an indication of Griffith's timeless appeal.
Full results here.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Divergent Martinez Approvals
Yesterday we put out a poll showing Mel Martinez with a 23% approval rating, today Strategic Vision put one out showing him with a 47% approval rating.
Who's right? One thing worth noting is that in addition to showing Martinez with a 24% higher approval rating than we did, they also showed Democratic Senator Bill Nelson with a 12% higher approval rating than we did. I have a feeling folks who consent to a long live interview might be more charitable in their assessments of politicians than those who can quickly take one of our automated surveys and get off the phone.
They also had a lot fewer people offer up the 'no opinion/not sure' option than we did, another variable that could be impacted by survey length and medium.
Strategic Vision has a good track record, but unlike us they did not release any of their demographic information or crosstabs on this poll. Without that information it's hard to see why the polls would come out so different. I thought our party breakdown with an even split of Democrats and Republicans was pretty reasonable- theirs must have been much more Republican (Update: it was not, see the comments.) But unless they put out that extra stuff about their poll we really can't have much of an idea what explains the differences.
Who's right? One thing worth noting is that in addition to showing Martinez with a 24% higher approval rating than we did, they also showed Democratic Senator Bill Nelson with a 12% higher approval rating than we did. I have a feeling folks who consent to a long live interview might be more charitable in their assessments of politicians than those who can quickly take one of our automated surveys and get off the phone.
They also had a lot fewer people offer up the 'no opinion/not sure' option than we did, another variable that could be impacted by survey length and medium.
Strategic Vision has a good track record, but unlike us they did not release any of their demographic information or crosstabs on this poll. Without that information it's hard to see why the polls would come out so different. I thought our party breakdown with an even split of Democrats and Republicans was pretty reasonable- theirs must have been much more Republican (Update: it was not, see the comments.) But unless they put out that extra stuff about their poll we really can't have much of an idea what explains the differences.
Council of State: Everything Else
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton 37
Robert Pittenger 33
Dalton continues the small lead he held in our first post primary poll. As long as he can compete financially with Pittenger he should be in good shape.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge 35
Janet Cowell 33
Daughtridge has a small lead for the second poll in a row. The problem for Cowell like it was in our May poll is that she is running behind most of the Democratic ticket in the 252 area code, where Daughtridge lives and is evidently well respected.
Attorney General:
Roy Cooper 42
Bob Crumley 31
If any two people are a cinch to get reelected statewide in North Carolina this fall they are Cooper and...
Secretary of State:
Elaine Marshall 43
Jack Sawyer 31
Superintendent:
June Atkinson 39
Richard Morgan 35
Atkinson's lead is 47-18 among voters whose biggest issue is education.
Agriculture:
Steve Troxler 40
Ronnie Ansley 33
Most of the Democratic candidates are doing a little worse in this poll than they did in our previous one, but Ansley is actually doing a bit better. Maybe it's the the signs on the road.
Labor:
Cherie Berry 40
Mary Fant Donnan 34
Insurance:
John Odom 38
Wayne Goodwin 32
Mark McMains 9
This is the race that is showing the most divergent results from our previous polling, and I wouldn't make much of it unless future polls confirm the trend. Obviously the Libertarian candidate for Insurance Commissioner is not likely to really get 9% of the vote this fall, but it's a low information race and that can lead to people giving strange responses.
Full results here.
Walter Dalton 37
Robert Pittenger 33
Dalton continues the small lead he held in our first post primary poll. As long as he can compete financially with Pittenger he should be in good shape.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge 35
Janet Cowell 33
Daughtridge has a small lead for the second poll in a row. The problem for Cowell like it was in our May poll is that she is running behind most of the Democratic ticket in the 252 area code, where Daughtridge lives and is evidently well respected.
Attorney General:
Roy Cooper 42
Bob Crumley 31
If any two people are a cinch to get reelected statewide in North Carolina this fall they are Cooper and...
Secretary of State:
Elaine Marshall 43
Jack Sawyer 31
Superintendent:
June Atkinson 39
Richard Morgan 35
Atkinson's lead is 47-18 among voters whose biggest issue is education.
Agriculture:
Steve Troxler 40
Ronnie Ansley 33
Most of the Democratic candidates are doing a little worse in this poll than they did in our previous one, but Ansley is actually doing a bit better. Maybe it's the the signs on the road.
Labor:
Cherie Berry 40
Mary Fant Donnan 34
Insurance:
John Odom 38
Wayne Goodwin 32
Mark McMains 9
This is the race that is showing the most divergent results from our previous polling, and I wouldn't make much of it unless future polls confirm the trend. Obviously the Libertarian candidate for Insurance Commissioner is not likely to really get 9% of the vote this fall, but it's a low information race and that can lead to people giving strange responses.
Full results here.
Auditor
Beth Wood 36
Les/Leslie Merritt 31
Beth Wood 34
Les Merritt 30
Beth Wood 38
Leslie Merritt 32
When we did our first post-primary tracking poll and found Beth Wood leading Les Merritt 41-32, I was a little befuddled. Why would Wood, running against an incumbent, be out pacing most of the Democratic ticket?
Then I remembered that many folks had speculated in 2004 that Merritt having his name on the ballot as 'Leslie' Merritt rather than 'Les' might have helped him because voters could have gotten the impression that he was a woman. Female gender is a bonus in low information races, and when we polled it in May we referred to him as Les, negating the possible advantage he gets by having his name as Leslie on the ballot.
To test the theory, I ran this month's poll in a way such that half the respondents were asked to pick between Les Merritt and Beth Wood, and half the voters were asked to pick between Leslie Merritt and Beth Wood.
The theory is shot. Merritt actually polled better as Les- trailing Wood by four points- than he did as Leslie- trailing by six points.
I still don't know why Merritt is losing while the other Republican incumbents trail in the polls, but based on this little experiment I don't think it has anything to do with the way his name was presented.
Full results here.
Les/Leslie Merritt 31
Beth Wood 34
Les Merritt 30
Beth Wood 38
Leslie Merritt 32
When we did our first post-primary tracking poll and found Beth Wood leading Les Merritt 41-32, I was a little befuddled. Why would Wood, running against an incumbent, be out pacing most of the Democratic ticket?
Then I remembered that many folks had speculated in 2004 that Merritt having his name on the ballot as 'Leslie' Merritt rather than 'Les' might have helped him because voters could have gotten the impression that he was a woman. Female gender is a bonus in low information races, and when we polled it in May we referred to him as Les, negating the possible advantage he gets by having his name as Leslie on the ballot.
To test the theory, I ran this month's poll in a way such that half the respondents were asked to pick between Les Merritt and Beth Wood, and half the voters were asked to pick between Leslie Merritt and Beth Wood.
The theory is shot. Merritt actually polled better as Les- trailing Wood by four points- than he did as Leslie- trailing by six points.
I still don't know why Merritt is losing while the other Republican incumbents trail in the polls, but based on this little experiment I don't think it has anything to do with the way his name was presented.
Full results here.
Governor
Bev Perdue 42
Pat McCrory 41
Michael Munger 5
The race for Governor continues to be extremely close. All three surveys PPP has conducted since the primary have shown the race within the margin of error. There is not likely to be much movement in this race one way or the other until the candidates start advertising later in the summer- everything going on right now is largely for show and having little impact on voter perceptions of the candidates.
Perdue continues to have a problem holding onto Democratic voters at quite the rate she needs to. She has a 68-19 lead with folks in her own party, while Pat McCrory has a 75-10 edge with Republican voters. Most of the fall off with Democrats for Perdue is in the greater Charlotte area. One of her biggest challenges this fall will be to convince voters there that even if McCrory's views on municipal issues were consistent with theirs, his views on some social and economic issues that he will confront as Governor are out of touch with Democratic values.
Michael Munger is having an impact on the race, pulling 13% of independents with McCrory and Perdue splitting them at 33%. In the polls before Munger got on the ballot McCrory was leading among independents, so it would seem that he is pulling voters away from him. Munger also gets 5% of the Republican vote compared to 3% of the Democratic vote.
The only people happier than the Libertarians about them getting back on the ballot have to be the Democrats.
Full results here.
Pat McCrory 41
Michael Munger 5
The race for Governor continues to be extremely close. All three surveys PPP has conducted since the primary have shown the race within the margin of error. There is not likely to be much movement in this race one way or the other until the candidates start advertising later in the summer- everything going on right now is largely for show and having little impact on voter perceptions of the candidates.
Perdue continues to have a problem holding onto Democratic voters at quite the rate she needs to. She has a 68-19 lead with folks in her own party, while Pat McCrory has a 75-10 edge with Republican voters. Most of the fall off with Democrats for Perdue is in the greater Charlotte area. One of her biggest challenges this fall will be to convince voters there that even if McCrory's views on municipal issues were consistent with theirs, his views on some social and economic issues that he will confront as Governor are out of touch with Democratic values.
Michael Munger is having an impact on the race, pulling 13% of independents with McCrory and Perdue splitting them at 33%. In the polls before Munger got on the ballot McCrory was leading among independents, so it would seem that he is pulling voters away from him. Munger also gets 5% of the Republican vote compared to 3% of the Democratic vote.
The only people happier than the Libertarians about them getting back on the ballot have to be the Democrats.
Full results here.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Florida Senate 2010
Mel Martinez Approval:
Approve 23
Disapprove 43
Alex Sink 37
Mel Martinez 31
Mel Martinez 33
Robert Wexler 33
Republican Senator Mel Martinez is in grave danger when it comes to his reelection in 2010. PPP found that just 23% of voters in the state approve of his job performance, and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink leads him in a potential 2010 match up.
By contrast Democratic Senator Bill Nelson enjoys a 42/29 approval in the state.
Even among Republicans just 37% of respondents approve of Martinez, with 31% disapproving. Just 15% of independents and 12% of Democrats expressed support for the job he is doing.
Sink leads Martinez 37-31, holding Martinez to a 53-16 lead among Republicans while leading 59-12 among Democrats and 35-20 among independents.
Martinez also struggles against Congressman Robert Wexler, with their match up showing a 33-33 tie.
This poll provides pretty strong evidence that Martinez will be one of the most endangered Republican Senators in the country in 2010.
Full results here.
Approve 23
Disapprove 43
Alex Sink 37
Mel Martinez 31
Mel Martinez 33
Robert Wexler 33
Republican Senator Mel Martinez is in grave danger when it comes to his reelection in 2010. PPP found that just 23% of voters in the state approve of his job performance, and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink leads him in a potential 2010 match up.
By contrast Democratic Senator Bill Nelson enjoys a 42/29 approval in the state.
Even among Republicans just 37% of respondents approve of Martinez, with 31% disapproving. Just 15% of independents and 12% of Democrats expressed support for the job he is doing.
Sink leads Martinez 37-31, holding Martinez to a 53-16 lead among Republicans while leading 59-12 among Democrats and 35-20 among independents.
Martinez also struggles against Congressman Robert Wexler, with their match up showing a 33-33 tie.
This poll provides pretty strong evidence that Martinez will be one of the most endangered Republican Senators in the country in 2010.
Full results here.
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