Four pollsters have released approval numbers on Ted Strickland since last November.
Two of them- Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll- show Strickland in a strong position. The most recent Quinnipiac showed Strickland at 57/29 for a net of +28. The latest Ohio Poll showed it at 56/34, or +22.
SurveyUSA and PPP show a very different picture. SUSA's most recent numbers were 45/44, or +1 and our release tonight finds 43/42, also +1.
It's worth noting that Quinnipiac and PPP are showing the same trend. In January Quinnipiac had Strickland at +38, so his +28 now is a ten point drop. We had him at +13 in January and now at +1 for a similar 12 point drop. So while we show very different pictures on Strickland's overall popularity we do both find it declining.
Why the discrepancy? I'm not sure. Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll use live interviewers while PPP and SUSA utilize automated polling, but that may or may not explain the difference.
Who's right? All four pollsters have done a good job in recent Ohio elections. Last fall Barack Obama won the state by four points. PPP, SurveyUSA, and the Ohio Poll all came within two points of that outcome, and Quinnipiac came within three.
Hillary Clinton won the state's primary by ten points. SurveyUSA picked that outcome right on the nose, PPP and the Ohio Poll each came within a point, and Quinnipiac came within five points.
It's odd for a quartet of outfits that have all shown a good track record of predicting Ohio election outcomes to show such divergent numbers, but that's probably at least somewhat attributable to the amount of time before the election, and it will doubtless become clearer as we move toward 2010 just how vulnerable Strickland is or is not.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Strickland Vulnerable
Ted Strickland's approval rating is down to 43% and he leads John Kasich just 44-42 in a hypothetical 2010 contest.
A January PPP poll found 48% of Ohio voters approving of Strickland's performance with 35% disapproving. The spread is now 43/42. That survey also found him with a six point lead over Kasich, 45-39.
Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady.
Kasich is relatively unknown to the state's voters. 39% have no opinion of him- among those who do, perceptions of him are nearly evenly split with 31% holding a positive view of him and 30% an unfavorable one. Given Kasich's relative lack of popularity the closeness of this race seems more a referendum on Strickland than anything having to do with his opponent.
One significant problem- with a beam of light at the end of the tunnel- for Strickland is that he has some work to do shoring up his support with black voters in Ohio. In both this poll and our January poll he received just 52% of the African American vote against Kasich. It's not that we got a conservative sample of black voters- approval numbers on Barack Obama from this same poll that will be released later in the week show the President with an 89% approval rating among them. The good news is that Democratic candidates often under poll with African Americans, especially this far out from an election, but almost always end up earning upwards of 80% of their vote. These numbers may be a wakeup call that Strickland has some work to do there, but those voters probably aren't gone for good.
Another good piece of news for Strickland is that he is running even with Kasich among whites in the poll, and any Democrat who can split the white vote in Ohio is going to win statewide.
Nevertheless this race does look closer than has been the conventional wisdom, and it will draw a lot of national attention next year as a bellwether contest if it really ends up being this competitive.
Full results here
A January PPP poll found 48% of Ohio voters approving of Strickland's performance with 35% disapproving. The spread is now 43/42. That survey also found him with a six point lead over Kasich, 45-39.
Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady.
Kasich is relatively unknown to the state's voters. 39% have no opinion of him- among those who do, perceptions of him are nearly evenly split with 31% holding a positive view of him and 30% an unfavorable one. Given Kasich's relative lack of popularity the closeness of this race seems more a referendum on Strickland than anything having to do with his opponent.
One significant problem- with a beam of light at the end of the tunnel- for Strickland is that he has some work to do shoring up his support with black voters in Ohio. In both this poll and our January poll he received just 52% of the African American vote against Kasich. It's not that we got a conservative sample of black voters- approval numbers on Barack Obama from this same poll that will be released later in the week show the President with an 89% approval rating among them. The good news is that Democratic candidates often under poll with African Americans, especially this far out from an election, but almost always end up earning upwards of 80% of their vote. These numbers may be a wakeup call that Strickland has some work to do there, but those voters probably aren't gone for good.
Another good piece of news for Strickland is that he is running even with Kasich among whites in the poll, and any Democrat who can split the white vote in Ohio is going to win statewide.
Nevertheless this race does look closer than has been the conventional wisdom, and it will draw a lot of national attention next year as a bellwether contest if it really ends up being this competitive.
Full results here
Voters' top priorities shift
42% of North Carolina voters named the economy and jobs as their top issue on our poll this month, the lowest that number has been since last summer and perhaps an indication that people in the state think that the worst has passed of the current recession. The economy polled in the 60s for much of the fall campaign last year and as the percentage of voters listing it as their top issue increased so did the percentage of the vote Barack Obama received in our polls against John McCain.
The two issues gaining in concern as the economy has dropped are moral and family values, and education. In December moral and family values was the biggest concern for 11% of voters, and that's now up to 18%. That issue started gaining in our surveys this spring as several states moved toward legalizing gay marriage, and among Republicans in North Carolina now there's nearly a toss up with 32% saying the economy is their greatest concern and 30% saying it's moral and family values.
Education has seen an even bigger increase in voters naming it as their top issue since December, going from 8% to 17%. This has traditionally been a top priority for North Carolina Democrats and as concern for the economy has at least slightly subsided 22% of voters in that party now put it at the top of their lists. Bev Perdue's renewed focus on public education over the last week could help shore up her numbers with voters of her party, as she takes on an issue of concern to many of them.
Two issues not seeing strong increases in public concern, despite an intense focus on them right now, are taxes and health care. Despite the spirited debate in Raleigh over how much new taxation should be relied on to fix the state's budget hole only 5% of North Carolinians list that as their biggest concern, compared to 4% six months ago. And with debate over health care heating up on Capitol Hill just 7% of voters say it's their top issue, up slightly from 4% in December.
Full results here
The two issues gaining in concern as the economy has dropped are moral and family values, and education. In December moral and family values was the biggest concern for 11% of voters, and that's now up to 18%. That issue started gaining in our surveys this spring as several states moved toward legalizing gay marriage, and among Republicans in North Carolina now there's nearly a toss up with 32% saying the economy is their greatest concern and 30% saying it's moral and family values.
Education has seen an even bigger increase in voters naming it as their top issue since December, going from 8% to 17%. This has traditionally been a top priority for North Carolina Democrats and as concern for the economy has at least slightly subsided 22% of voters in that party now put it at the top of their lists. Bev Perdue's renewed focus on public education over the last week could help shore up her numbers with voters of her party, as she takes on an issue of concern to many of them.
Two issues not seeing strong increases in public concern, despite an intense focus on them right now, are taxes and health care. Despite the spirited debate in Raleigh over how much new taxation should be relied on to fix the state's budget hole only 5% of North Carolinians list that as their biggest concern, compared to 4% six months ago. And with debate over health care heating up on Capitol Hill just 7% of voters say it's their top issue, up slightly from 4% in December.
Full results here
Obama popularity at lowest in NC
It's not a huge drop, but at 50%, Barack Obama's approval rating is the lowest it's been in North Carolina since he took office. It's fluctuated between 51 and 54% until this survey.
His numbers in the state peaked at 54% in April. Since then he's seen a modest decline in his reviews from Democrats, from 85% to 81% and an up tick in the proportion of Republicans disapproving of him from 74% to 80%. With independents he's pretty steady, as 49% approve and 43% disapprove.
Just as there was at the polls last fall there is a major urban/rural divide in how the state's voters see Obama, with 73% of urban but only 41% of rural voters saying he's doing a good job.
His approval remains at a strong 92% with African Americans but only 37% of whites give him good marks with 53% disapproving, numbers roughly equal to what he earned at the ballot box in November.
He is most popular in the Triangle, Charlotte, and the northeastern part of the state with his weakest reviews coming from voters in the mountains.
One thing's for sure: even if Obama's popularity has declined modestly since he took office he is still far more popular than the Governor or either of the state's Senators, and continues to be considerably more well liked than his predecessor in the White House.
Full results here
His numbers in the state peaked at 54% in April. Since then he's seen a modest decline in his reviews from Democrats, from 85% to 81% and an up tick in the proportion of Republicans disapproving of him from 74% to 80%. With independents he's pretty steady, as 49% approve and 43% disapprove.
Just as there was at the polls last fall there is a major urban/rural divide in how the state's voters see Obama, with 73% of urban but only 41% of rural voters saying he's doing a good job.
His approval remains at a strong 92% with African Americans but only 37% of whites give him good marks with 53% disapproving, numbers roughly equal to what he earned at the ballot box in November.
He is most popular in the Triangle, Charlotte, and the northeastern part of the state with his weakest reviews coming from voters in the mountains.
One thing's for sure: even if Obama's popularity has declined modestly since he took office he is still far more popular than the Governor or either of the state's Senators, and continues to be considerably more well liked than his predecessor in the White House.
Full results here
Friday, June 19, 2009
Next week...
I know I said we would start our 2009 general election Governor polling this week but that's going to wait...expect New Jersey out the week of the 29th and Virginia the week of July 6th.
We're going to be releasing another poll showing a Democratic Governor in more perilous shape for reelection next year than is the current conventional wisdom on Sunday night...not our favorite thing to do but we just put out the numbers whether we like them or not. We'll have the rest of the release for that state over the course of the week.
We'll also have Obama's newest NC numbers Sunday night.
Why the unusual release time? I'm off to Omaha bright and early Monday morning for the finals of the College World Series. It breaks my heart the Tar Heels didn't quite make it (I only went to 43 of their games this year) but it's a great event either way...Geaux Tigers!
We're going to be releasing another poll showing a Democratic Governor in more perilous shape for reelection next year than is the current conventional wisdom on Sunday night...not our favorite thing to do but we just put out the numbers whether we like them or not. We'll have the rest of the release for that state over the course of the week.
We'll also have Obama's newest NC numbers Sunday night.
Why the unusual release time? I'm off to Omaha bright and early Monday morning for the finals of the College World Series. It breaks my heart the Tar Heels didn't quite make it (I only went to 43 of their games this year) but it's a great event either way...Geaux Tigers!
More on the Burr poll saga
As I wrote about yesterday, Roll Call had a story about what it identified as a Richard Burr internal poll that showed him leading Elaine Marshall. Burr's spokesman, Paul Shumaker, was quoted about the poll.
I pointed out that this was quite ironic given that two weeks ago Burr had told the News&Observer that our testing him against hypothetical opponents was 'ridiculous.'
Within an hour a commenter showed up on our blog saying that it was not actually an internal poll, but had come from the Carolina Strategy Group. The CSG is a new Republican automated polling firm in North Carolina (I'm pretty sure created to counter us) that is run by...the very same Paul Shumaker who is Burr's main political consultant.
To me this looks like classic CYA. Shumaker discussed the poll with Roll Call as if it was an internal poll and I'm pretty sure the messaging about the origin of the poll just changed when we pointed out Burr's contradictory comments from a couple weeks ago. Either way it's hard to consider a poll conducted by Burr's strategist to not be 'internal,' whether the Burr campaign actually paid for it or not.
To continue the story, Chris Cillizza reported on the poll this morning, referring to it as an internal poll, then crossed out the reference to its being an internal poll and said it wasn't released by Burr's campaign. He didn't note that it was released by Burr's campaign manager.
I guess no one is exactly sure what happened here but it makes Burr's operation look pretty chaotic. The fact that they didn't release any approval or reelect numbers seems like confirmation that their numbers are saying the same thing our numbers are, which is that only 29% of North Carolinians and even just 49% of Republicans, think that he deserves another term. I hope some intrepid reporter will look more into what happened here.
I pointed out that this was quite ironic given that two weeks ago Burr had told the News&Observer that our testing him against hypothetical opponents was 'ridiculous.'
Within an hour a commenter showed up on our blog saying that it was not actually an internal poll, but had come from the Carolina Strategy Group. The CSG is a new Republican automated polling firm in North Carolina (I'm pretty sure created to counter us) that is run by...the very same Paul Shumaker who is Burr's main political consultant.
To me this looks like classic CYA. Shumaker discussed the poll with Roll Call as if it was an internal poll and I'm pretty sure the messaging about the origin of the poll just changed when we pointed out Burr's contradictory comments from a couple weeks ago. Either way it's hard to consider a poll conducted by Burr's strategist to not be 'internal,' whether the Burr campaign actually paid for it or not.
To continue the story, Chris Cillizza reported on the poll this morning, referring to it as an internal poll, then crossed out the reference to its being an internal poll and said it wasn't released by Burr's campaign. He didn't note that it was released by Burr's campaign manager.
I guess no one is exactly sure what happened here but it makes Burr's operation look pretty chaotic. The fact that they didn't release any approval or reelect numbers seems like confirmation that their numbers are saying the same thing our numbers are, which is that only 29% of North Carolinians and even just 49% of Republicans, think that he deserves another term. I hope some intrepid reporter will look more into what happened here.
Dubious Company for Perdue
We pointed out earlier this week that Bev Perdue's biggest problem right now is that her approval rating has slid under 50% even with folks in her own party.
Of the 40 or so Governors and Senators across the country we've taken approval ratings for this year that makes her part of a unique group of three, the other members being Roland Burris and Jim Bunning.
While those two's images are probably beyond rehabilitation Perdue can certainly turn these numbers around- it's all about showing leadership, having a coherent message, and increasing her visibility. She rebounded strongly every time things started going bad in her campaign last year, and it's time for her to do the governing version of that now.
Of the 40 or so Governors and Senators across the country we've taken approval ratings for this year that makes her part of a unique group of three, the other members being Roland Burris and Jim Bunning.
While those two's images are probably beyond rehabilitation Perdue can certainly turn these numbers around- it's all about showing leadership, having a coherent message, and increasing her visibility. She rebounded strongly every time things started going bad in her campaign last year, and it's time for her to do the governing version of that now.
Krzyzewski popular, though not as much as Williams
Last month we did a statewide poll looking at what North Carolinians think of Roy Williams, and I got a bunch of feedback from people wondering how popular Mike Krzyzewski is so we included him on our poll this month.
52% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Krzyzewski, compared to 61% for Williams. 14% have an unfavorable opinion of the Duke coach, while just 9% had a negative one of the UNC head guy.
So both are pretty popular, although Williams more so. Part of the disparity is attributable to the Tar Heels having a larger fan base but Williams is also more popular with fans of opposing schools than Krzyzewski is.
While 68% of Duke fans last month said they had a favorable opinion of Williams, only 53% of Carolina fans say they view Krzyzewski positively. Among State fans 60% had a favorable opinion of Williams, while 51% have one of Krzyzewski. And among supporters of the Demon Deacons 59% like Roy and 53% like Coach K.
My biggest take away from these numbers is that UNC and Duke fans are not actually as hateful of their rivals as public perception would indicate. The most vociferous of their supporters might truly hate their adversary's coach, and they attract most of the attention whenever UNC-Duke time rolls around, but the average fan actually respects the opposing coach.
I guess you can put me in the vociferous category though because this UNC grad thinks that Roy Williams walks on water and that Krzyzewski is...well...just about the devil. Although he's pretty harmless when he's lost to Carolina 6 of the last 7 times out.
One other interesting note on these numbers: Krzyzewski actually gets slightly more approval from his own fans than Williams gets from Carolina partisans. 80% of Duke fans view their coach positively while 76% of Carolina ones do, perhaps a surprise given that Williams has won two national championships since the last time the Devils even made it to the Elite Eight.
Full results here
52% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Krzyzewski, compared to 61% for Williams. 14% have an unfavorable opinion of the Duke coach, while just 9% had a negative one of the UNC head guy.
So both are pretty popular, although Williams more so. Part of the disparity is attributable to the Tar Heels having a larger fan base but Williams is also more popular with fans of opposing schools than Krzyzewski is.
While 68% of Duke fans last month said they had a favorable opinion of Williams, only 53% of Carolina fans say they view Krzyzewski positively. Among State fans 60% had a favorable opinion of Williams, while 51% have one of Krzyzewski. And among supporters of the Demon Deacons 59% like Roy and 53% like Coach K.
My biggest take away from these numbers is that UNC and Duke fans are not actually as hateful of their rivals as public perception would indicate. The most vociferous of their supporters might truly hate their adversary's coach, and they attract most of the attention whenever UNC-Duke time rolls around, but the average fan actually respects the opposing coach.
I guess you can put me in the vociferous category though because this UNC grad thinks that Roy Williams walks on water and that Krzyzewski is...well...just about the devil. Although he's pretty harmless when he's lost to Carolina 6 of the last 7 times out.
One other interesting note on these numbers: Krzyzewski actually gets slightly more approval from his own fans than Williams gets from Carolina partisans. 80% of Duke fans view their coach positively while 76% of Carolina ones do, perhaps a surprise given that Williams has won two national championships since the last time the Devils even made it to the Elite Eight.
Full results here
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Burr talks out of both sides of his mouth
This morning Richard Burr's campaign floated numbers from an internal poll that showed him leading Elaine Marshall.
Nothing unusual there, except that less than two weeks ago Burr made these comments to the News&Observer:
Nothing unusual there, except that less than two weeks ago Burr made these comments to the News&Observer:
In an interview last week, Burr shrugged off repeated surveys by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling about potential opponents. The firm has pitched Burr against a variety of potential Democratic contenders, most of whom have dropped out of the race.
"I think it's ridiculous to go through hypothetical head-to-heads," Burr said.
"The next election is not even something I'm thinking about. Nor should I, until I know who I'm running against," he said.
Burr said he hasn't run any of his own polls yet.
"Why should I poll?" he asked. "I don't know who I'm running against."
So barely two weeks after calling us 'ridiculous' for testing hypothetical opponents against him he's doing it himself? What could have changed in two weeks to change his attitude so much? This is truly a bizarre development given his recent comments.
Hard to know what Perdue should do
It's really hard to know whether anything Bev Perdue does right now is a good idea, because we simply have no idea what the political landscape's going to look like in 2012. So instead of taking a side, here are three reasons Perdue's machinations on the budget right now are savvy and three reasons they're suicide.
Savvy:
-The main reason Perdue's approval ratings are declining so much is a drop in support from Democrats. She needs to do something to make her base happy, and prioritizing teachers and education is a good one.
-She can take credit three years from now for bold leadership. You better believe there will be campaign ads where she talks about how she stood up for education at a time when folks were all too happy to raise class sizes, cut teacher pay, etc. It would give her a good opportunity to say that she focused her leadership on the big picture, and was visionary enough to realize that one bad budget year was not a good excuse to jeopardize our childrens' future, etc.
-She's maybe taking some heat off of Democratic legislators who have to run for reelection next year. If there is a big tax increase and Perdue makes herself the face of it and gets the blame from angry voters that might keep Democrats from losing control of the General Assembly next year. Obviously hikes can't happen without support from legislative Democrats but if voter perception is that the Governor is to blame for all of this it might be enough to get folks in some swing districts 'to love their legislator, hate their Governor.'
Suicide:
-You don't want Perdue and $1.5 billion in the same headline. Need I say more?
-As we pointed out earlier this week, voters are willing to support some tax increases, especially if they feel like by and large someone else will be footing the bill. That's the case with things like the cigarette tax and income tax increases for the very wealthy. But it's hard to put together a package of increases this large without it affecting almost every voter in the state on an individual basis. If families that are already struggling feel like the Governor is gouging them even more there will certainly be a political price to pay for that.
-The unfortunate reality of the financial picture has been such that Perdue has had little opportunity to grab the attention of the voters with anything positive, like new programs that would be popular or any other proactive measures. By putting herself out in front on this, she risks the only thing voters know her for is raising their taxes...if it was a situation where she had built up a reservoir of personal popularity from other aspects of the job she might be able to better weather this...but she hasn't, and it's reflected in her approval ratings.
We really won't know whether Perdue is being brilliant or shooting herself in the foot for about three more years.
Savvy:
-The main reason Perdue's approval ratings are declining so much is a drop in support from Democrats. She needs to do something to make her base happy, and prioritizing teachers and education is a good one.
-She can take credit three years from now for bold leadership. You better believe there will be campaign ads where she talks about how she stood up for education at a time when folks were all too happy to raise class sizes, cut teacher pay, etc. It would give her a good opportunity to say that she focused her leadership on the big picture, and was visionary enough to realize that one bad budget year was not a good excuse to jeopardize our childrens' future, etc.
-She's maybe taking some heat off of Democratic legislators who have to run for reelection next year. If there is a big tax increase and Perdue makes herself the face of it and gets the blame from angry voters that might keep Democrats from losing control of the General Assembly next year. Obviously hikes can't happen without support from legislative Democrats but if voter perception is that the Governor is to blame for all of this it might be enough to get folks in some swing districts 'to love their legislator, hate their Governor.'
Suicide:
-You don't want Perdue and $1.5 billion in the same headline. Need I say more?
-As we pointed out earlier this week, voters are willing to support some tax increases, especially if they feel like by and large someone else will be footing the bill. That's the case with things like the cigarette tax and income tax increases for the very wealthy. But it's hard to put together a package of increases this large without it affecting almost every voter in the state on an individual basis. If families that are already struggling feel like the Governor is gouging them even more there will certainly be a political price to pay for that.
-The unfortunate reality of the financial picture has been such that Perdue has had little opportunity to grab the attention of the voters with anything positive, like new programs that would be popular or any other proactive measures. By putting herself out in front on this, she risks the only thing voters know her for is raising their taxes...if it was a situation where she had built up a reservoir of personal popularity from other aspects of the job she might be able to better weather this...but she hasn't, and it's reflected in her approval ratings.
We really won't know whether Perdue is being brilliant or shooting herself in the foot for about three more years.
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