We're going to have our first post-primary North Carolina Senate numbers out tomorrow and there continues to be an uncanny resemblance between how the race is progressing this year and how it did for Elizabeth Dole in 2008.
It took forever for Democrats to get someone to run against Dole over the course of 2007 despite her tepid poll numbers. That scenario replayed itself in 2009 as the party tried to find someone to run against Richard Burr.
Once Democrats did get someone to run against Dole she led by solid margins in most of the early polling, leading some to question whether she was really that vulnerable. Burr, similarly, has had healthy leads over Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham in our surveys to date.
Dole's polling advantage in the early part of 2008 turned out to be inflated due to her opponents' lack of name recognition, and as soon as Kay Hagan became a more familiar face to the state's voters over the course of her primary campaign she pulled within the margin of error against Dole on our first poll after she was the nominee. Our numbers tomorrow find Marshall doing even better than Hagan was at this point in the race, and Cunningham doing similarly.
Obviously the next six months will be more important than everything that has happened to date, and they could unfold in a fundamentally different way than the stretch run of the Hagan/Dole race did. But so far the parallels between the two contests are strong.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
Dem prospects getting better
There haven't been a lot of good weeks on the Senate election front for Democrats so far in 2010, but they have received good news on their chances of picking up five different Republican held Senate seats this week:
-In Arizona there have been two polls now showing John McCain under 50% against Rodney Glassman. J.D. Hayworth continues to be competitive among Republican primary voters against McCain, and it appears a Hayworth-Glassman contest would be a total tossup.
-In Iowa Research 2000 showed Charles Grassley only up single digits against Roxanne Conlin, and although Rasmussen has Grassley up by 13 that's a far cry from January when they showed him leading her by 28 points.
-In Kentucky we found both Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo within the margin of error against Rand Paul, who all independent public polling continues to show with a double digit lead.
-In North Carolina, Rasmussen showed Elaine Marshall improving her standing against Richard Burr by ten points in just two and a half weeks and Cal Cunningham with a nine point movement in his. If we find anywhere near that much momentum for Marshall and Cunningham on our North Carolina poll this weekend then we'll find each of them almost tied with Burr for the first time.
-In Ohio Quinnipiac and Rasmussen now both show Lee Fisher ahead of Rob Portman, and in the case of Rasmussen that's a six point improvement for Fisher over the last month. Even if his primary victory wasn't exactly overwhelming, his standing's improved.
One thing we really don't know for sure yet is whether 2010 will be solely an anti-Democratic year, or more broadly an anti-incumbent year where there are some surprising Republican losses in addition to the expected Democratic ones. Although the GOP still has to be seen as favored in all of these races, the movement in a Democratic direction in each of them is an encouraging sign for the party.
-In Arizona there have been two polls now showing John McCain under 50% against Rodney Glassman. J.D. Hayworth continues to be competitive among Republican primary voters against McCain, and it appears a Hayworth-Glassman contest would be a total tossup.
-In Iowa Research 2000 showed Charles Grassley only up single digits against Roxanne Conlin, and although Rasmussen has Grassley up by 13 that's a far cry from January when they showed him leading her by 28 points.
-In Kentucky we found both Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo within the margin of error against Rand Paul, who all independent public polling continues to show with a double digit lead.
-In North Carolina, Rasmussen showed Elaine Marshall improving her standing against Richard Burr by ten points in just two and a half weeks and Cal Cunningham with a nine point movement in his. If we find anywhere near that much momentum for Marshall and Cunningham on our North Carolina poll this weekend then we'll find each of them almost tied with Burr for the first time.
-In Ohio Quinnipiac and Rasmussen now both show Lee Fisher ahead of Rob Portman, and in the case of Rasmussen that's a six point improvement for Fisher over the last month. Even if his primary victory wasn't exactly overwhelming, his standing's improved.
One thing we really don't know for sure yet is whether 2010 will be solely an anti-Democratic year, or more broadly an anti-incumbent year where there are some surprising Republican losses in addition to the expected Democratic ones. Although the GOP still has to be seen as favored in all of these races, the movement in a Democratic direction in each of them is an encouraging sign for the party.
Looking at retiring Senators
Our Kentucky poll this week continued to confirm that Jim Bunning is not getting any sort of post-retirement announcement bounce in his approval numbers. 30% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing while 45% disapprove. His approval rating last April was 28%.
Of course Bunning has not exactly been going quietly during his final year in office, and he's not alone among retiring Senators who have numbers that aren't exactly anything to write home about.
Ohio's George Voinovich, though much less controversial than Bunning, has pretty similar poll numbers. 33% approve of him to 42% who disapprove. And the passage of time since the odd circumstances surrounding Roland Burris' appointment have done little to make Illinois voters feel more charitable toward him- he remains the least popular Senator with 54% disapproval to only 18% approval.
So what retiring Senators have kept up a decent level of popularity? Kit Bond at 44/35 in Missouri and Judd Gregg at 44/37 in New Hampshire. It seems safe to say either of them would have been a cinch for reelection if they'd given it another try, although it didn't necessarily look that way when they made their decisions to retire. At Gregg's decently young age you almost even wonder if Republicans will try to get him back in the game against Jeanne Shaheen in 2014.
Most voters in their states don't have an opinion of Ted Kaufman or George LeMieux, as appointed Senators, and we haven't polled on Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Sam Brownback, or Byron Dorgan.
Of course Bunning has not exactly been going quietly during his final year in office, and he's not alone among retiring Senators who have numbers that aren't exactly anything to write home about.
Ohio's George Voinovich, though much less controversial than Bunning, has pretty similar poll numbers. 33% approve of him to 42% who disapprove. And the passage of time since the odd circumstances surrounding Roland Burris' appointment have done little to make Illinois voters feel more charitable toward him- he remains the least popular Senator with 54% disapproval to only 18% approval.
So what retiring Senators have kept up a decent level of popularity? Kit Bond at 44/35 in Missouri and Judd Gregg at 44/37 in New Hampshire. It seems safe to say either of them would have been a cinch for reelection if they'd given it another try, although it didn't necessarily look that way when they made their decisions to retire. At Gregg's decently young age you almost even wonder if Republicans will try to get him back in the game against Jeanne Shaheen in 2014.
Most voters in their states don't have an opinion of Ted Kaufman or George LeMieux, as appointed Senators, and we haven't polled on Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Sam Brownback, or Byron Dorgan.
Looking at Calipari and Pitino
This should perhaps come as no surprise, but voters in Kentucky like both John Calipari and Rick Pitino more than they do any of the state's politicians.
41% have a favorable opinion of Calipari to 10% with an unfavorable one. The number who like Pitino is similar at 40% but there are considerably more people who view him in a negative light than for Calipari, at 32%.
A plurality of conservatives in Kentucky have an unfavorable opinion of Pitino, suggesting that it may be his personal issues drawing enmity from some rather than anything having to do with basketball.
Calipari's +31 net reviews and Pitino's +8 compare favorably to Senator Mitch McConnell (even), Governor Steve Beshear (-1), Senator Jim Bunning (-15) and Barack Obama (-22).
The only other basketball coaches we've polled on this year are Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski in North Carolina, and despite not yet having won a national championship Calipari's numbers are very similar to theirs. Williams came in at 39/10 and Krzyzewski at 44/13. One can only imagine the heights Calipari's numbers will reach if he does win the big one while at Kentucky.
Full results here
41% have a favorable opinion of Calipari to 10% with an unfavorable one. The number who like Pitino is similar at 40% but there are considerably more people who view him in a negative light than for Calipari, at 32%.
A plurality of conservatives in Kentucky have an unfavorable opinion of Pitino, suggesting that it may be his personal issues drawing enmity from some rather than anything having to do with basketball.
Calipari's +31 net reviews and Pitino's +8 compare favorably to Senator Mitch McConnell (even), Governor Steve Beshear (-1), Senator Jim Bunning (-15) and Barack Obama (-22).
The only other basketball coaches we've polled on this year are Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski in North Carolina, and despite not yet having won a national championship Calipari's numbers are very similar to theirs. Williams came in at 39/10 and Krzyzewski at 44/13. One can only imagine the heights Calipari's numbers will reach if he does win the big one while at Kentucky.
Full results here
GOP Senate candidates aren't very strong
Republicans are in a position right now to win a lot of competitive Senate seats, but it sure isn't because voters are enamored with their candidates. Among ten potential new GOP Senators we've polled on so far in 2010:
-None has a favorability rating higher than 34% (Kelly Ayotte)
-6 out of 10 are seen unfavorably by more voters in their state than favorably
-Two have net favorability ratios of -10 or worse (Jane Norton and Roy Blunt)
-The average favorability for the 10 is 26%, while the average unfavorability is 28%.
Why are these folks doing so well in horse race match ups when they have little personal popularity? It's because their Democratic opponents are weak and/or because Barack Obama is unpopular in their states. They are definitely doing well because of the political climate rather than their own strength as candidates and that makes their positions highly susceptible to change if there's any sort of shift in public attitudes over the next six months. There are no Mark Warners or Tom Udalls in this group who would make for tough to beat candidates in any election year (with the exception of John Hoeven who we haven't polled on because of the inevitability of his victory.)
Here are the GOP candidates from strongest to weakest:
-None has a favorability rating higher than 34% (Kelly Ayotte)
-6 out of 10 are seen unfavorably by more voters in their state than favorably
-Two have net favorability ratios of -10 or worse (Jane Norton and Roy Blunt)
-The average favorability for the 10 is 26%, while the average unfavorability is 28%.
Why are these folks doing so well in horse race match ups when they have little personal popularity? It's because their Democratic opponents are weak and/or because Barack Obama is unpopular in their states. They are definitely doing well because of the political climate rather than their own strength as candidates and that makes their positions highly susceptible to change if there's any sort of shift in public attitudes over the next six months. There are no Mark Warners or Tom Udalls in this group who would make for tough to beat candidates in any election year (with the exception of John Hoeven who we haven't polled on because of the inevitability of his victory.)
Here are the GOP candidates from strongest to weakest:
| Candidate | State | Favorability |
| Kelly Ayotte | | +10 (34/24) |
| John Boozman | | +7 (32/25) |
| Sue Lowden | | +7 (29/22) |
| Mark Kirk | | +1 (24/23) |
| Marco Rubio | | -1 (31/32) |
| Pat Toomey | | -2 (20/22) |
| Rob Portman | | -3 (16/19) |
| Rand Paul | | -7 (28/35) |
| Jane Norton | | -10 (25/35) |
| Roy Blunt | | -16 (25/41) |
Thursday, May 6, 2010
The big story from North Carolina
The biggest story out of Tuesday's election results in North Carolina was not anything related to the US Senate race, but the surprisingly weak performances by Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler in their primaries. Kissell received 63% and Shuler only 62% against candidates who did not have the resources to mount really serious campaigns.
The poor performances by Kissell and Shuler and where they did poorly- the most liberal parts of their districts- are a clear indication that there is significant unhappiness with them on the left. The question now is how that unhappiness will manifest itself this fall.
There are three things I can see happening with that group of voters in November:
1) They could just leave the House race part of their ballot blank when they go to vote.
2) They could support candidates of the SEIU backed 'North Carolina First' party, which will presumably provide voters a choice to the left of Kissell and Shuler.
3) They may have gotten the protest vote out of their systems in the primary and could still vote for Kissell and Shuler in the general election when the consequences of not doing so could result in the election of a conservative Republican to Congress.
It's way too early to know how any of this will play itself out. But after seeing Tuesday's results I think the SEIU effort has more of a potential to really make an impact this fall than I did before. And I think Kissell and Shuler have to find a way to make at least some amends with the liberals in their party or there could be consequences for them further down the road.
The poor performances by Kissell and Shuler and where they did poorly- the most liberal parts of their districts- are a clear indication that there is significant unhappiness with them on the left. The question now is how that unhappiness will manifest itself this fall.
There are three things I can see happening with that group of voters in November:
1) They could just leave the House race part of their ballot blank when they go to vote.
2) They could support candidates of the SEIU backed 'North Carolina First' party, which will presumably provide voters a choice to the left of Kissell and Shuler.
3) They may have gotten the protest vote out of their systems in the primary and could still vote for Kissell and Shuler in the general election when the consequences of not doing so could result in the election of a conservative Republican to Congress.
It's way too early to know how any of this will play itself out. But after seeing Tuesday's results I think the SEIU effort has more of a potential to really make an impact this fall than I did before. And I think Kissell and Shuler have to find a way to make at least some amends with the liberals in their party or there could be consequences for them further down the road.
Beshear sports weak numbers
Steve Beshear's going to have to change the way Kentucky voters feel about him over the next year and a half if he wants to win reelection as Governor. Right now 44% say they would vote for his eventual Republican opponent while just 35% say they'd support him for a second term.
Beshear's biggest problem is a lack of support from within his own party. Republicans say they would vote to replace him 70-9 and independents do 45-25, but neither of those figures are anything unusual for a Democratic elected official in this political climate. But even voters within his own party only say they'd return him to office by a 58-22 margin, and he'll need to improve on that quite a bit by this time next year.
Beshear's approval numbers are actually better than his numbers for reelection, with Kentucky voters almost evenly divided on him. 38% think he's doing a good job to 39% who disapprove. The problem for him is that while 24% of Republican voters like how he's doing, only that 9% would actually vote to reelect him against their own party's candidate.
It's certainly not time for Beshear to panic. These numbers come at what may be somewhat of a low point for the Democratic Party, and things could be looking considerably sunnier a year and a half from now. And parties frequently have trouble finding a real life candidate who polls as well as a generic candidate, so a lot of Beshear's fate will be decided by who the Republicans put forward.
Nevertheless these poll numbers are an early sign that the Gubernatorial race should be much more competitive than it was in 2007. And I would expect the contest to draw a huge amount of national attention as folks try to divine its meaning in terms of Barack Obama's prospects for reelection the next year. I don't know how representative of the country as a whole Kentucky is, but that won't stop the pundits from reading a lot into whatever happens there.
Full results here
Beshear's biggest problem is a lack of support from within his own party. Republicans say they would vote to replace him 70-9 and independents do 45-25, but neither of those figures are anything unusual for a Democratic elected official in this political climate. But even voters within his own party only say they'd return him to office by a 58-22 margin, and he'll need to improve on that quite a bit by this time next year.
Beshear's approval numbers are actually better than his numbers for reelection, with Kentucky voters almost evenly divided on him. 38% think he's doing a good job to 39% who disapprove. The problem for him is that while 24% of Republican voters like how he's doing, only that 9% would actually vote to reelect him against their own party's candidate.
It's certainly not time for Beshear to panic. These numbers come at what may be somewhat of a low point for the Democratic Party, and things could be looking considerably sunnier a year and a half from now. And parties frequently have trouble finding a real life candidate who polls as well as a generic candidate, so a lot of Beshear's fate will be decided by who the Republicans put forward.
Nevertheless these poll numbers are an early sign that the Gubernatorial race should be much more competitive than it was in 2007. And I would expect the contest to draw a huge amount of national attention as folks try to divine its meaning in terms of Barack Obama's prospects for reelection the next year. I don't know how representative of the country as a whole Kentucky is, but that won't stop the pundits from reading a lot into whatever happens there.
Full results here
NC opposes health care lawsuit
North Carolina's right wing Civitas Institute puts out a poll every month and for their most recent one they sent out press releases trumpeting Barack Obama and Bev Perdue's falling popularity and the state's support of the death penalty and banning gay marriage.
Surprisingly they didn't send out the most interesting result from the poll, which found that 46% of North Carolinians were opposed to the state joining in the anti-health care lawsuit with only 40% of voters supportive of it. It's not that they got some strangely progressive sample, as 52% of the folks they polled expressed opposition to the recently passed health care bill while only 37% said they supported it.
This goes to what we've talked about repeatedly- voters are sick of the health care issue and even a decent portion of those opposed to the bill just want it to go away. They don't want Republicans to keep on dragging it out, even in a relatively conservative state like North Carolina.
The GOP really has a choice on health care- if they stop pushing on it now they will clearly have scored a victory on the issue. But if they keep up with lawsuits and repeal talk they risk having the tide turn against them by antagonizing voters who just want it to go away.
Surprisingly they didn't send out the most interesting result from the poll, which found that 46% of North Carolinians were opposed to the state joining in the anti-health care lawsuit with only 40% of voters supportive of it. It's not that they got some strangely progressive sample, as 52% of the folks they polled expressed opposition to the recently passed health care bill while only 37% said they supported it.
This goes to what we've talked about repeatedly- voters are sick of the health care issue and even a decent portion of those opposed to the bill just want it to go away. They don't want Republicans to keep on dragging it out, even in a relatively conservative state like North Carolina.
The GOP really has a choice on health care- if they stop pushing on it now they will clearly have scored a victory on the issue. But if they keep up with lawsuits and repeal talk they risk having the tide turn against them by antagonizing voters who just want it to go away.
The upcoming special elections
I think there's a pretty good chance Republicans are going to win both of the special Congressional elections this month. And I think it's a virtual certainty Democrats will have a brutal time at the polls this fall. But as much as the media is going to try to make the Pennsylvania and Hawaii House races into some sort of huge harbinger for November, I don't think there's much of a relationship between what happens in these races and what will happen nationally later this year.
Almost every House race in the country this fall will feature a single Democrat running against a single Republicans in a district that saw movement in a Democratic direction between George W. Bush's reelection in 2004 and Barack Obama's election in 2008. But neither of these districts fits that bill.
Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District was the only one in the country that flipped from voting for John Kerry in 2004 to John McCain in 2008. It was an outlier trending in a Republican direction even as the rest of the country was going strongly Democratic and it will be more of a surprise if it doesn't go Republican than if it does.
In Hawaii of course all of the polling shows the two Democrats combining for far more of the vote than the single Republican candidate, but with both of them in it until the end it does seem likely that the split within the party will give the GOP the seat- for six months anyway until they lose it under normal election circumstances this fall.
These two races just aren't very reflective of the overall battlefield in 2010 and it would be a mistake to read too much into their results.
Almost every House race in the country this fall will feature a single Democrat running against a single Republicans in a district that saw movement in a Democratic direction between George W. Bush's reelection in 2004 and Barack Obama's election in 2008. But neither of these districts fits that bill.
Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District was the only one in the country that flipped from voting for John Kerry in 2004 to John McCain in 2008. It was an outlier trending in a Republican direction even as the rest of the country was going strongly Democratic and it will be more of a surprise if it doesn't go Republican than if it does.
In Hawaii of course all of the polling shows the two Democrats combining for far more of the vote than the single Republican candidate, but with both of them in it until the end it does seem likely that the split within the party will give the GOP the seat- for six months anyway until they lose it under normal election circumstances this fall.
These two races just aren't very reflective of the overall battlefield in 2010 and it would be a mistake to read too much into their results.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Kentucky Senate Tightening
The Kentucky Senate race is looking more competitive than it has in months, with Republican front runner Rand Paul leading Dan Mongiardo just 42-38 and Jack Conway only 41-40.
Republicans' hold on the seat would be more secure if Trey Grayson was somehow able to come back and win the primary in the final two weeks of the campaign. He has healthier leads of 43-35 against Mongiardo and 42-34 against Conway.
Paul had larger leads over both Conway and Mongiardo when PPP looked at Kentucky in December but as voters in the state have gotten to know him better his negatives have risen a lot faster than his positives. 28% of voters see him favorably, up from 26% in the previous poll. But 35% now have a negative opinion of him, a 12 point increase from 23% in the earlier survey.
Paul's really seen a fall in his standing with independent voters. Where he previously led Conway and Mongiardo by 33-34 points with them, that's now fallen to 15-20.
It looks likely Republicans will nominate their weaker general election candidate by picking Paul in two weeks, but Democrats are likely to do the same thing at this point. Mongiardo is the least popular person in the race, with 36% of voters seeing him unfavorably to 24% with a positive opinion.
It's still going to be an uphill battle for Democrats to win in Kentucky in this political climate, but Paul does have the potential to be a general election liability for the Republicans and this race could end up being more competitive in the fall than is currently anticipated.
Full results here
Republicans' hold on the seat would be more secure if Trey Grayson was somehow able to come back and win the primary in the final two weeks of the campaign. He has healthier leads of 43-35 against Mongiardo and 42-34 against Conway.
Paul had larger leads over both Conway and Mongiardo when PPP looked at Kentucky in December but as voters in the state have gotten to know him better his negatives have risen a lot faster than his positives. 28% of voters see him favorably, up from 26% in the previous poll. But 35% now have a negative opinion of him, a 12 point increase from 23% in the earlier survey.
Paul's really seen a fall in his standing with independent voters. Where he previously led Conway and Mongiardo by 33-34 points with them, that's now fallen to 15-20.
It looks likely Republicans will nominate their weaker general election candidate by picking Paul in two weeks, but Democrats are likely to do the same thing at this point. Mongiardo is the least popular person in the race, with 36% of voters seeing him unfavorably to 24% with a positive opinion.
It's still going to be an uphill battle for Democrats to win in Kentucky in this political climate, but Paul does have the potential to be a general election liability for the Republicans and this race could end up being more competitive in the fall than is currently anticipated.
Full results here
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