It's been a slow week on the blog because the paying clients have been rolling in but we should have more to say next week.
On deck are our monthly national poll and our first look at the Maryland Governor's race. I forgot to take suggestions on the extra Republican for this month so made an executive decision and put Jan Brewer on the poll.
Where should we poll next weekend? We'll take your suggestions over the weekend and put them up for a vote Monday.
Friday, July 9, 2010
The 2010 Electorate by State
Last week we got whacked by a bunch of Democrats for putting out a Wisconsin poll with an electorate they thought was too skewed toward John McCain voters. This week we got whacked by a bunch of Republicans for putting out a Kentucky poll with an electorate they thought was too skewed toward Barack Obama voters. I stand by both those polls.
There is no doubt in my mind that the 2010 electorate nationally as a whole will be more Republican friendly than the ones in 2006 and 2008. I don't think that the shift in the electorate will be identical in every state though. There will be some states where the electorate is very similar to who turned out in 2008, and there are others where it will really be more Republican leaning this time around.
We already saw this in the 2009 elections. There was a huge drop in Democratic turnout in Virginia, but a much smaller one in New Jersey. Jon Corzine's loss had less to do with Obama voters not coming back out than it did with those Obama voters supporting Chris Christie.
Recently our polls have found Democratic interest in places like Texas and Kentucky pretty similar to what it was in 2008. That makes sense. For one thing the Obama operation was not strongly contesting those states, so they may not have seen huge spikes in Democratic turnout to begin with. But the main races in those states are also the kind that you would expect to keep party voters engaged. In Texas Democrats have a strong challenger for Governor in Bill White and an unpopular Republican incumbent in Rick Perry. In Kentucky you have the prospect of Rand Paul getting elected to shake Democratic voters out of their slumber.
On the other hand our recent polls in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Iowa have suggested very large drops in Democratic turnout for this year. There are some common threads that draw those states together- all three have extremely unpopular Democratic Governors and all three have higher than usual numbers of Obama voters who have since moved into the disapproval column when it comes to him. It makes sense that Democratic voters might be less inclined to come out this year in places where they haven't been real thrilled with the performance of the folks they voted in the last few cycles.
There will definitely be an overall drop in Democratic turnout this year- just don't expect it to happen to the same degree in every state.
There is no doubt in my mind that the 2010 electorate nationally as a whole will be more Republican friendly than the ones in 2006 and 2008. I don't think that the shift in the electorate will be identical in every state though. There will be some states where the electorate is very similar to who turned out in 2008, and there are others where it will really be more Republican leaning this time around.
We already saw this in the 2009 elections. There was a huge drop in Democratic turnout in Virginia, but a much smaller one in New Jersey. Jon Corzine's loss had less to do with Obama voters not coming back out than it did with those Obama voters supporting Chris Christie.
Recently our polls have found Democratic interest in places like Texas and Kentucky pretty similar to what it was in 2008. That makes sense. For one thing the Obama operation was not strongly contesting those states, so they may not have seen huge spikes in Democratic turnout to begin with. But the main races in those states are also the kind that you would expect to keep party voters engaged. In Texas Democrats have a strong challenger for Governor in Bill White and an unpopular Republican incumbent in Rick Perry. In Kentucky you have the prospect of Rand Paul getting elected to shake Democratic voters out of their slumber.
On the other hand our recent polls in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Iowa have suggested very large drops in Democratic turnout for this year. There are some common threads that draw those states together- all three have extremely unpopular Democratic Governors and all three have higher than usual numbers of Obama voters who have since moved into the disapproval column when it comes to him. It makes sense that Democratic voters might be less inclined to come out this year in places where they haven't been real thrilled with the performance of the folks they voted in the last few cycles.
There will definitely be an overall drop in Democratic turnout this year- just don't expect it to happen to the same degree in every state.
Looking at Boxer's Situation
There's no doubt Barbara Boxer's in some serious trouble for reelection. But looking inside the numbers on the California Senate race there are some indications that Boxer should survive:
-Our late May poll of the race, which like this week's Field Poll found a 3 point Boxer advantage, found Carly Fiorina leading Boxer 88-4 with folks who voted for John McCain in 2008. That's the largest lead among McCain voters we've found for any Senate or Gubernatorial candidate in the country over the last 4 months and it's an indication that Fiorina really has no room for improvement with her base. She's already got it completely locked up and she's still trailing, albeit by a small amount.
That means Fiorina's going to have to win over a bunch of Obama voters to knock off Boxer but so far she's shown very little appeal to them. On that poll only 4% of Obama voters had a favorable opinion of her to 42% who saw her unfavorably. That's quite a contrast from, for instance, Scott Brown who was seen favorably by 28% of Obama voters right before to his upset win in Massachusetts to 61% who saw him unfavorably.
-Yes, Barbara Boxer is not very personally popular. We found her disapproval at 46% to only 37% approval. But it's important to note that just because voters don't approve of you doesn't mean they won't vote for you. Boxer is currently getting 20% of the vote from people who don't approve of her. 92% of those folks voted for Barack Obama and 3% voted for John McCain and literally 0% of the 43 people in that category who we polled in California in late May had a positive opinion of Fiorina. There are a fair number of folks who don't like Boxer but aren't open to voting for a Republican either.
Last year Jon Corzine's final percentage of the vote was 11 points higher than his approval rating in our polling and a similar dynamic may put Boxer over the top this time.
I don't think Boxer will win by much- certainly don't expect to see her with a double digit margin- but I just don't think Fiorina has that much room to grow and because of that I expect she'll end up hanging on.
-Our late May poll of the race, which like this week's Field Poll found a 3 point Boxer advantage, found Carly Fiorina leading Boxer 88-4 with folks who voted for John McCain in 2008. That's the largest lead among McCain voters we've found for any Senate or Gubernatorial candidate in the country over the last 4 months and it's an indication that Fiorina really has no room for improvement with her base. She's already got it completely locked up and she's still trailing, albeit by a small amount.
That means Fiorina's going to have to win over a bunch of Obama voters to knock off Boxer but so far she's shown very little appeal to them. On that poll only 4% of Obama voters had a favorable opinion of her to 42% who saw her unfavorably. That's quite a contrast from, for instance, Scott Brown who was seen favorably by 28% of Obama voters right before to his upset win in Massachusetts to 61% who saw him unfavorably.
-Yes, Barbara Boxer is not very personally popular. We found her disapproval at 46% to only 37% approval. But it's important to note that just because voters don't approve of you doesn't mean they won't vote for you. Boxer is currently getting 20% of the vote from people who don't approve of her. 92% of those folks voted for Barack Obama and 3% voted for John McCain and literally 0% of the 43 people in that category who we polled in California in late May had a positive opinion of Fiorina. There are a fair number of folks who don't like Boxer but aren't open to voting for a Republican either.
Last year Jon Corzine's final percentage of the vote was 11 points higher than his approval rating in our polling and a similar dynamic may put Boxer over the top this time.
I don't think Boxer will win by much- certainly don't expect to see her with a double digit margin- but I just don't think Fiorina has that much room to grow and because of that I expect she'll end up hanging on.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Troopers and Perdue
Despite a spate of high profile scandals involving state troopers North Carolina voters still have a very high opinion of them. 67% see them favorably to 16% unfavorably and with 17% having no opinion. Clearly a few bad apples have not hurt the overall positive impression North Carolinians have of folks who work for the Highway Patrol.
There isn't a real strong partisan divide in how opinions about the troopers break down- 75% of Republicans, 65% of independents, and 61% of Democrats continue to see them in a positive light.
Also getting some good polling news this month is the Governor who's been very critical of the Highway Patrol in light of the recent events. Bev Perdue's approval rating is now up to 33%, with 47% of voters disapproving of her. That 33% mark is the highest Perdue's seen since May of 2009 when she stood at 34%. It's certainly not impressive and she has a long way to go but Perdue was as low as 24% last October and she's made a good bit of progress since then.
Perhaps most encouraging for Perdue is that her approval rating within her own party is up to 53%. Perdue continues to be very unpopular with independents (22% approval) and Republicans (14% approval) but neither of those things are all that different from what Governors across the country are facing right now. What had made Perdue's numbers particularly bad was a lack of support from Democrats and while she'd be in much better shape if she could get that number up over the 70% mark she's still come a long way since she was in the 30s for a lot of 2010.
One thing that's been true in Perdue's numbers for a long time now is that she does better in the places where she gets more visibility. She's now on positive ground in the Triangle where 46% of voters like the job she's doing to 38% who disapprove. Part of that is because it's the most Democratic region in the state but that doesn't change the fact that her approval has moved a net 28 points in the right direction there since she stood at 30/50 a year ago this month.
In July of 2009 Perdue's approval was a net -30 at 25/55. She's improved that 16 points now to -14 at 33/47. The progress has been slow but relatively steady and if she can continue it over the next year she'll get back to the break even point. Perdue's unlikely to be easily reelected like her two Democratic predecessors but at the rate she's going it would be a mistake to write her off for dead either. McCrory/Perdue round 2 could be a spirited, closely contested race just like the first one.
Full results here
There isn't a real strong partisan divide in how opinions about the troopers break down- 75% of Republicans, 65% of independents, and 61% of Democrats continue to see them in a positive light.
Also getting some good polling news this month is the Governor who's been very critical of the Highway Patrol in light of the recent events. Bev Perdue's approval rating is now up to 33%, with 47% of voters disapproving of her. That 33% mark is the highest Perdue's seen since May of 2009 when she stood at 34%. It's certainly not impressive and she has a long way to go but Perdue was as low as 24% last October and she's made a good bit of progress since then.
Perhaps most encouraging for Perdue is that her approval rating within her own party is up to 53%. Perdue continues to be very unpopular with independents (22% approval) and Republicans (14% approval) but neither of those things are all that different from what Governors across the country are facing right now. What had made Perdue's numbers particularly bad was a lack of support from Democrats and while she'd be in much better shape if she could get that number up over the 70% mark she's still come a long way since she was in the 30s for a lot of 2010.
One thing that's been true in Perdue's numbers for a long time now is that she does better in the places where she gets more visibility. She's now on positive ground in the Triangle where 46% of voters like the job she's doing to 38% who disapprove. Part of that is because it's the most Democratic region in the state but that doesn't change the fact that her approval has moved a net 28 points in the right direction there since she stood at 30/50 a year ago this month.
In July of 2009 Perdue's approval was a net -30 at 25/55. She's improved that 16 points now to -14 at 33/47. The progress has been slow but relatively steady and if she can continue it over the next year she'll get back to the break even point. Perdue's unlikely to be easily reelected like her two Democratic predecessors but at the rate she's going it would be a mistake to write her off for dead either. McCrory/Perdue round 2 could be a spirited, closely contested race just like the first one.
Full results here
Kentucky 2011
It looks like Steve Beshear could have a tough fight for reelection as Kentucky's Governor in 2011, with a pair of potential Republican opponents polling within the margin of error against him.
Beshear leads recently defeated Republican Senate candidate Trey Grayson 41-38 and trails Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer 40-39.
Voters are pretty ambivalent toward Beshear right now with 38% approving of his job performance, 35% disapproving, and 26% holding no opinion one way or the other. Those numbers are actually pretty decent given that in May we found the average Governor nationally has a 47% disapproval rating, but they still show him pretty vulnerable to a challenge next year.
Farmer, a former Kentucky basketball player, has exceptional personal favorability numbers. 39% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him while 14% see him unfavorably. That +25 spread is better than PPP has found for any challenger running in a Senate or Gubernatorial race across the country in 2010. Farmer has very positive numbers with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
Grayson's numbers are not as impressive with 24% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him and 21% viewing him unfavorably. It's worth noting though that the +3 spread is a lot better than -8 we found for Rand Paul on this poll, a reminder that Republicans would probably be headed for an easy victory in the Senate race this fall if they had nominated the 'safe' candidate.
Despite Farmer being so much more popular than Grayson he doesn't fare all that much better in a head to head because Democrats liking him doesn't necessarily translate into their being willing to vote for him as Governor. Tom Osborne learned the hard way in the 2006 Nebraska Governor's race that no matter how popular you may be in a sports context it won't necessarily carry over to politics.
Kentucky is probably not very representative of the country as a whole but this race is going to get a ton of national attention next fall for what it might tell us about the mood of the electorate headed into 2012 and for now it looks like it has the potential to be a very close race. Another Beshear blowout on scale with what he did in 2007 is not very likely.
Full results here
Beshear leads recently defeated Republican Senate candidate Trey Grayson 41-38 and trails Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer 40-39.
Voters are pretty ambivalent toward Beshear right now with 38% approving of his job performance, 35% disapproving, and 26% holding no opinion one way or the other. Those numbers are actually pretty decent given that in May we found the average Governor nationally has a 47% disapproval rating, but they still show him pretty vulnerable to a challenge next year.
Farmer, a former Kentucky basketball player, has exceptional personal favorability numbers. 39% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him while 14% see him unfavorably. That +25 spread is better than PPP has found for any challenger running in a Senate or Gubernatorial race across the country in 2010. Farmer has very positive numbers with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
Grayson's numbers are not as impressive with 24% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him and 21% viewing him unfavorably. It's worth noting though that the +3 spread is a lot better than -8 we found for Rand Paul on this poll, a reminder that Republicans would probably be headed for an easy victory in the Senate race this fall if they had nominated the 'safe' candidate.
Despite Farmer being so much more popular than Grayson he doesn't fare all that much better in a head to head because Democrats liking him doesn't necessarily translate into their being willing to vote for him as Governor. Tom Osborne learned the hard way in the 2006 Nebraska Governor's race that no matter how popular you may be in a sports context it won't necessarily carry over to politics.
Kentucky is probably not very representative of the country as a whole but this race is going to get a ton of national attention next fall for what it might tell us about the mood of the electorate headed into 2012 and for now it looks like it has the potential to be a very close race. Another Beshear blowout on scale with what he did in 2007 is not very likely.
Full results here
Looking at West Virginia
I think a West Virginia special election- even if Joe Manchin runs- could end up being a lot closer than people assume right now. It will depend on whether potentially strong Republican candidates write off their chances if Manchin gets in or decide to make a run at it anyway.
Manchin is one of the most popular Governors in the country we've found in our polling over the last couple years. Another one who falls into category is also a Democrat in a conservative state, Arkansas' Mike Beebe. Back in February, just for the heck of it, we decided to poll Beebe as a hypothetical Senate candidate against GOP nominee John Boozman. We found that despite a stellar 59/22 approval rating, Beebe actually trailed Boozman 44-43 in a hypothetical match up.
That poll showed there is a definite disconnect between how much voters like a moderate to conservative Democratic Governor and how willing they are to send that person to Washington as another vote for Barack Obama and Harry Reid. 50% of McCain voters on that poll said they approved of Beebe's job performance. But only 19% of them said they were willing to support him for the Senate. I would not be surprised if there turns out to be a similar disconnect in Manchin's numbers- the Republicans and conservative leaning independents who like him as Governor may not be willing to support him for Senator if there is a viable GOP alternative.
I certainly still think Manchin is the favorite if there is an election this year and he runs, but I don't know that his candidacy would mean an automatic Democratic hold. We'll poll it if it starts to become more clear that there will be an election this fall.
Manchin is one of the most popular Governors in the country we've found in our polling over the last couple years. Another one who falls into category is also a Democrat in a conservative state, Arkansas' Mike Beebe. Back in February, just for the heck of it, we decided to poll Beebe as a hypothetical Senate candidate against GOP nominee John Boozman. We found that despite a stellar 59/22 approval rating, Beebe actually trailed Boozman 44-43 in a hypothetical match up.
That poll showed there is a definite disconnect between how much voters like a moderate to conservative Democratic Governor and how willing they are to send that person to Washington as another vote for Barack Obama and Harry Reid. 50% of McCain voters on that poll said they approved of Beebe's job performance. But only 19% of them said they were willing to support him for the Senate. I would not be surprised if there turns out to be a similar disconnect in Manchin's numbers- the Republicans and conservative leaning independents who like him as Governor may not be willing to support him for Senator if there is a viable GOP alternative.
I certainly still think Manchin is the favorite if there is an election this year and he runs, but I don't know that his candidacy would mean an automatic Democratic hold. We'll poll it if it starts to become more clear that there will be an election this fall.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
NC turns against drilling
Three short months ago more than 60% of North Carolinians supported offshore drilling. Now a plurality of voters in the state oppose it. 46% express opposition to drilling off the coast of the state while 42% support it.
Public opinion has been shifting more and more against drilling with each passing month since the spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The April poll, pre-spill, showed only 26% of voters opposed to drilling. That increased to 38% in May, then 39% in June, and now 46% in July.
Compared to the April survey support for drilling has dropped 25 points with Democrats, 19 points with independents, and 14 points with Republicans. Where a majority of Democrats previously supported drilling they are now strongly opposed to it by a 27/58 margin. Independents are split almost evenly, 46/45, and 59% of GOP voters continue to support it.
It is unusual for public opinion on a particular issue to shift this rapidly in such a short period of time. But an event like the spill in the Gulf can have a major impact on people's thinking.
While opinion on drilling itself is still relatively divided, there's less ambiguity when it comes to whether voters buy into Republican Congressional candidate Bill Randall's theory that the oil spill was intentionally caused by the federal government. Only 11% of voters in the state believe that with 74% dismissing the idea and 15% saying they're not sure. Even among Republicans just 17% buy into that particular line of thinking.
Full results here
Public opinion has been shifting more and more against drilling with each passing month since the spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The April poll, pre-spill, showed only 26% of voters opposed to drilling. That increased to 38% in May, then 39% in June, and now 46% in July.
Compared to the April survey support for drilling has dropped 25 points with Democrats, 19 points with independents, and 14 points with Republicans. Where a majority of Democrats previously supported drilling they are now strongly opposed to it by a 27/58 margin. Independents are split almost evenly, 46/45, and 59% of GOP voters continue to support it.
It is unusual for public opinion on a particular issue to shift this rapidly in such a short period of time. But an event like the spill in the Gulf can have a major impact on people's thinking.
While opinion on drilling itself is still relatively divided, there's less ambiguity when it comes to whether voters buy into Republican Congressional candidate Bill Randall's theory that the oil spill was intentionally caused by the federal government. Only 11% of voters in the state believe that with 74% dismissing the idea and 15% saying they're not sure. Even among Republicans just 17% buy into that particular line of thinking.
Full results here
McConnell's Declining Popularity
Mitch McConnell's seen a significant decline in his standing with Republican voters following his ill fated endorsement of Trey Grayson for the party's Senate nomination, and as a result his home state approval numbers are now by far the worst they've ever been in PPP's Kentucky polling.
PPP's last three polls found McConnell's approval ranging from 44% to 48% to 43%. Now only 34% of voters in the state like the job McConnell's doing with 48% disapproving. And beyond that a near majority of his constituents- 49%- would like to see him lose his role as Republican leader in the Senate to only 38% who think he should continue on in it.
McConnell's seen no change in his standing with Democratic voters since PPP's early May poll of the state. He was at 25/62 then and he's at 24/63 now. With Republicans though he's dropped from a +49 approval spread at 68/19 to now just a +26 at 51/25. He's had a dramatic decline with independents as well from -9 at 36/45 to -33 at 22/55. Kentucky has a relatively small number of independent voters though so those numbers have comparatively little to do with McConnell's overall drop.
Digging deeper into McConnell's numbers his decline in popularity has come completely with conservative voters. His 23% approval rating with moderates is unchanged from two months ago and his 15% standing with liberals is actually slightly improved from 12% in the May poll. But with conservatives, who comprise the largest voting bloc in Kentucky, he's fallen from 67% all the way down to 47%. It's probably a good thing for McConnell that he's not up for reelection again until 2014 because the downward descent in his numbers with the party base suggest he could be the next big target of the Tea Party crowd.
McConnell's learning, like Harry Reid, that it's hard to be a big shot in Washington and maintain your support on the home front.
Full results here
PPP's last three polls found McConnell's approval ranging from 44% to 48% to 43%. Now only 34% of voters in the state like the job McConnell's doing with 48% disapproving. And beyond that a near majority of his constituents- 49%- would like to see him lose his role as Republican leader in the Senate to only 38% who think he should continue on in it.
McConnell's seen no change in his standing with Democratic voters since PPP's early May poll of the state. He was at 25/62 then and he's at 24/63 now. With Republicans though he's dropped from a +49 approval spread at 68/19 to now just a +26 at 51/25. He's had a dramatic decline with independents as well from -9 at 36/45 to -33 at 22/55. Kentucky has a relatively small number of independent voters though so those numbers have comparatively little to do with McConnell's overall drop.
Digging deeper into McConnell's numbers his decline in popularity has come completely with conservative voters. His 23% approval rating with moderates is unchanged from two months ago and his 15% standing with liberals is actually slightly improved from 12% in the May poll. But with conservatives, who comprise the largest voting bloc in Kentucky, he's fallen from 67% all the way down to 47%. It's probably a good thing for McConnell that he's not up for reelection again until 2014 because the downward descent in his numbers with the party base suggest he could be the next big target of the Tea Party crowd.
McConnell's learning, like Harry Reid, that it's hard to be a big shot in Washington and maintain your support on the home front.
Full results here
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Undecideds in Ohio
The Ohio Senate race is shaping up as one of the closest in the country for this fall, and one thing that is particularly interesting about it is how many undecideds there are. With neither candidate all that well known, 22% of voters have not yet decided who to vote for.
A look at who those undecideds are tells a story of folks who are mad at both the Democrats and Republicans in Washington- and whose undecided status may be a reflection of their not knowing who they should be madder at.
52% of the undecideds in the Senate race disapprove of President Obama to 35% who like the job he's doing. They don't think much of the Democrats in Congress either- only 26% have a like the job they're doing.
Those numbers might seem bad- but they pale in comparison to how negatively those voters feel about Congressional Republicans- only 10% approve of the job they're doing while 61% disapprove. So these voters are down on President Obama and the Democratic majority- but their most negatives feelings are toward the Republican minority.
These are folks who normally would vote to 'throw the bums out.' But they think the alternative is even bigger bums. It'll be interesting to see how folks like this across the country end up voting this fall- and it could determine whether Democrats keep control of the House and a healthy majority in the Senate or not.
A look at who those undecideds are tells a story of folks who are mad at both the Democrats and Republicans in Washington- and whose undecided status may be a reflection of their not knowing who they should be madder at.
52% of the undecideds in the Senate race disapprove of President Obama to 35% who like the job he's doing. They don't think much of the Democrats in Congress either- only 26% have a like the job they're doing.
Those numbers might seem bad- but they pale in comparison to how negatively those voters feel about Congressional Republicans- only 10% approve of the job they're doing while 61% disapprove. So these voters are down on President Obama and the Democratic majority- but their most negatives feelings are toward the Republican minority.
These are folks who normally would vote to 'throw the bums out.' But they think the alternative is even bigger bums. It'll be interesting to see how folks like this across the country end up voting this fall- and it could determine whether Democrats keep control of the House and a healthy majority in the Senate or not.
High Profile Dems Helpful?
PPP has polled on the impact of a Barack Obama endorsement in 5 key Senate races over the last month, and it's looking more and more clear that there's just about nowhere Democratic candidates would benefit from having the President come to campaign with them.
In Illinois, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin an Obama endorsement comes down as a net negative impact on the chances of a voter supporting a candidate by anywhere from 14 to 33 points. There are two reasons for that. First, Republicans respond more negatively to Obama than Democrats do positively. Second, independents are completely unimpressed by an Obama endorsement. In Ohio 6% say they're more likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate while 57% say they're less likely to. In Wisconsin it's a 6/51 spread. In Pennsylvania it's 10/56. In Illinois it's 15/39 and in Louisiana it's 16/49.
Already Obama visits did little to help Democratic candidates in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia. The party may be better off if he stays in the White House and focuses on governing this fall. Here are the state by state Obama endorsement impact poll numbers:
If Obama is not Democrats' best weapon on the trail this fall, what about Bill Clinton? Clinton is not quite as toxic as the sitting President but his support isn't going to be real helpful with an off year general electorate either:
If Democrats want to avoid nationalizing this year's election- which is probably prudent- they're better off if both Obama and Clinton stay off the campaign trail.
In Illinois, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin an Obama endorsement comes down as a net negative impact on the chances of a voter supporting a candidate by anywhere from 14 to 33 points. There are two reasons for that. First, Republicans respond more negatively to Obama than Democrats do positively. Second, independents are completely unimpressed by an Obama endorsement. In Ohio 6% say they're more likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate while 57% say they're less likely to. In Wisconsin it's a 6/51 spread. In Pennsylvania it's 10/56. In Illinois it's 15/39 and in Louisiana it's 16/49.
Already Obama visits did little to help Democratic candidates in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia. The party may be better off if he stays in the White House and focuses on governing this fall. Here are the state by state Obama endorsement impact poll numbers:
| State | More Likely | Less Likely | Net |
| | 26 | 40 | -14 |
| | 22 | 55 | -33 |
| | 24 | 51 | -27 |
| | 22 | 50 | -28 |
| | 19 | 50 | -31 |
If Obama is not Democrats' best weapon on the trail this fall, what about Bill Clinton? Clinton is not quite as toxic as the sitting President but his support isn't going to be real helpful with an off year general electorate either:
| State | More Likely | Less Likely | Net |
| | 25 | 38 | -13 |
| | 23 | 47 | -24 |
| | 27 | 44 | -17 |
| | 23 | 43 | -20 |
| | 19 | 43 | -24 |
If Democrats want to avoid nationalizing this year's election- which is probably prudent- they're better off if both Obama and Clinton stay off the campaign trail.
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