Thanks for all the suggestions on where to poll this week. Your choices are:
-Minnesota. Interesting to see if Amy Klobuchar is still in solid shape with an actual opponent now, to see whether the state's more into a Tim Pawlenty or Michele Bachmann Presidential candidacy, and how voters are feeling about gay marriage.
-Montana. Competitive Senate race, open seats for House and Governor, one of the states Obama came closest to winning but fell short in in 2008, lots to work with there.
-New Mexico. Open Senate seat with both interesting general election and primary match ups, as well as one of the Bush 2004/Obama 2008 states we've gone the longest amount of time without polling.
-Ohio. Always a vital swing state at the Presidential level, so interested to see what's going on there post-bin Laden and to do another check up on Sherrod Brown and the Senate race.
-South Carolina. Haven't polled the GOP race there since January and now that there's a Huckabee vacuum it seems like a good time for it...and it's always interesting to poll on the unique set of characters that are South Carolina's major statewide elected officials.
-Wisconsin. Open Senate seat, check back in on Scott Walker, somewhat important Presidential state. Not going to be hard to fill up a Wisconsin poll.
We'll take the top two vote getters and as always don't rig the poll.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Cantwell in good shape
Maria Cantwell appears to be in a solid position for reelection next year, with a 50/36 approval spread and double digit leads against five prominent potential opponents we tested against her.
Cantwell is pretty universally well liked within her own party, at 80/7 with Democrats. She's also on narrowly positive ground with independents at 44/40 and has a 17% approval rating with Republicans, which is a decent amount of crossover support (we generally found Patty Murray with a single digit approval with GOP voters over the course of last year's campaign.)
The Republican who comes closest to Cantwell is an old favorite- Dino Rossi, who trails 53-40. Susan Hutchison and Dave Reichert do next best, both trailing by a 49-35 margin. Clint Didier trails 51-35 and Cathy McMorris Rodgers has the largest deficit at 50-31. Cantwell wins independent voters by 5-12 points in all of the match ups and picks up 8-9% of the Republican vote while only losing 2-5% of the Democratic vote.
Part of the reason Cantwell does so well in these match ups is that she has solid approval numbers. But it's also because none of the Republicans have very much statewide appeal. Hutchison has the 'best' favorability but that's a -5 spread with 19% of voters rating her favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. She's followed by McMorris Rodgers at -8 (13/21) , Reichert at -11 (25/36), Didier at -14 (14/28), and Rossi at -15 (37/52).
Cantwell's reasonably popular and the GOP doesn't have anyone good to run against her. Republicans may have missed out on their one good chance to win a Senate seat in Washington when they came up short against Patty Murray last year.
Full results here
Cantwell is pretty universally well liked within her own party, at 80/7 with Democrats. She's also on narrowly positive ground with independents at 44/40 and has a 17% approval rating with Republicans, which is a decent amount of crossover support (we generally found Patty Murray with a single digit approval with GOP voters over the course of last year's campaign.)
The Republican who comes closest to Cantwell is an old favorite- Dino Rossi, who trails 53-40. Susan Hutchison and Dave Reichert do next best, both trailing by a 49-35 margin. Clint Didier trails 51-35 and Cathy McMorris Rodgers has the largest deficit at 50-31. Cantwell wins independent voters by 5-12 points in all of the match ups and picks up 8-9% of the Republican vote while only losing 2-5% of the Democratic vote.
Part of the reason Cantwell does so well in these match ups is that she has solid approval numbers. But it's also because none of the Republicans have very much statewide appeal. Hutchison has the 'best' favorability but that's a -5 spread with 19% of voters rating her favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. She's followed by McMorris Rodgers at -8 (13/21) , Reichert at -11 (25/36), Didier at -14 (14/28), and Rossi at -15 (37/52).
Cantwell's reasonably popular and the GOP doesn't have anyone good to run against her. Republicans may have missed out on their one good chance to win a Senate seat in Washington when they came up short against Patty Murray last year.
Full results here
Tomblin starts out favored
Earl Ray Tomblin begins the general election for Governor of West Virginia as a solid favorite, but Republican Bill Maloney has gained a fair amount of ground on him over the last month and looks like a more viable contender for the fall now than he had before. Tomblin has a 45-30 advantage where it was 56-23 in mid-April.
First a look at why Maloney's doing so much better now:
-On the first poll Maloney led Tomblin only 51-26 with GOP voters. Now his advantage is 60-17. As Maloney surged with Republican primary voters over the last few weeks of the campaign those folks similarly increased their willingness to support him in the general.
-Tomblin took some lumps with Democrats in the final month of the primary. His approval with Dems in April was 54/20 and now it's 47/23. He had a 72/10 lead with Democrats, now it's 65/11. Note that there hasn't really been an increase in Democratic support for Maloney, just an increase in the undecided ranks. It's possible that's Thompson/Tennant/Perdue voters who developed some animus toward Tomblin in the primary but will get back into his camp by the fall.
At any rate Tomblin is still in a strong position against Maloney, even if it's not as strong as it was a month ago. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in West Virginia so for a Republican to win requires holding onto pretty much 100% of their party vote while also winning over a significant number of Democrats- in the neighborhood of 20-25%. Right now Maloney is doing neither of those things. He's getting only 11% of the Democratic vote and he's not sufficiently holding off Tomblin with Republicans either- the acting Governor gets 17% of the vote across party lines. There are a whole lot of undecided voters and Maloney showed comeback ability during the primary so it would be a mistake to write him off but Tomblin is the clear favorite.
There's been some thought that by nominating Maloney Saturday Republicans chose their weaker candidate for the fall but that's not the case. On this same poll we found that Tomblin would have started out with a 48-30 lead over Betty Ireland. Ireland's popularity took a huge hit over the course of the campaign. In January her favorability started at +14 (33/19). By April it was down to +7 (30/23) and on this final poll it's -3 at 28/31. This was not a good campaign for her image.
We also found on this poll that any of the Democratic candidates would have started out with the general election lead over any of the Republicans with the exception of a Maloney match with John Perdue, which would have been tied. None of the Democrats seem to have done much to enhance their future political careers through this campaign either. Tennant's favorability started out at +24 (43/19) and closed at +3 (33/30) for a 21 point drop. John Perdue's started out at +10 (29/19) and closed at -7 (24/31) for a 17 point drop. Only Rick Thompson held his ground, starting at 17/17 and closing at 29/29. Compared with what happened to everyone else holding steady counts as a win.
Full results here
First a look at why Maloney's doing so much better now:
-On the first poll Maloney led Tomblin only 51-26 with GOP voters. Now his advantage is 60-17. As Maloney surged with Republican primary voters over the last few weeks of the campaign those folks similarly increased their willingness to support him in the general.
-Tomblin took some lumps with Democrats in the final month of the primary. His approval with Dems in April was 54/20 and now it's 47/23. He had a 72/10 lead with Democrats, now it's 65/11. Note that there hasn't really been an increase in Democratic support for Maloney, just an increase in the undecided ranks. It's possible that's Thompson/Tennant/Perdue voters who developed some animus toward Tomblin in the primary but will get back into his camp by the fall.
At any rate Tomblin is still in a strong position against Maloney, even if it's not as strong as it was a month ago. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in West Virginia so for a Republican to win requires holding onto pretty much 100% of their party vote while also winning over a significant number of Democrats- in the neighborhood of 20-25%. Right now Maloney is doing neither of those things. He's getting only 11% of the Democratic vote and he's not sufficiently holding off Tomblin with Republicans either- the acting Governor gets 17% of the vote across party lines. There are a whole lot of undecided voters and Maloney showed comeback ability during the primary so it would be a mistake to write him off but Tomblin is the clear favorite.
There's been some thought that by nominating Maloney Saturday Republicans chose their weaker candidate for the fall but that's not the case. On this same poll we found that Tomblin would have started out with a 48-30 lead over Betty Ireland. Ireland's popularity took a huge hit over the course of the campaign. In January her favorability started at +14 (33/19). By April it was down to +7 (30/23) and on this final poll it's -3 at 28/31. This was not a good campaign for her image.
We also found on this poll that any of the Democratic candidates would have started out with the general election lead over any of the Republicans with the exception of a Maloney match with John Perdue, which would have been tied. None of the Democrats seem to have done much to enhance their future political careers through this campaign either. Tennant's favorability started out at +24 (43/19) and closed at +3 (33/30) for a 21 point drop. John Perdue's started out at +10 (29/19) and closed at -7 (24/31) for a 17 point drop. Only Rick Thompson held his ground, starting at 17/17 and closing at 29/29. Compared with what happened to everyone else holding steady counts as a win.
Full results here
Trump, Palin would lose even to Kucinich
If you want to get an idea of how bad Donald Trump's political standing was by the end of his abortive run for President consider this- a national poll we conducted last week found that he would trail Dennis Kucinich 40-36 in a hypothetical contest.
On that poll we found that there were more Republicans (15%) willing to vote for Kucinich than there were Democrats (14%) willing to vote for Trump. And Kucinich took independents by a 40-38 margin as well.
Trump was already unpopular when he started testing the Presidential waters. In February we found that his favorability was a -29 spread at 27/56. But he managed to make himself more unpopular over the course of the last three months and in our final national poll including him he was at a -41 spread at 24/65. He did improve his popularity with Republicans over the course of that time from -22 (31/53) to -8 (39/47). But with Democrats he cratered from -40 (21/61) to -70 (11/81) and he had a dramatic decline with independents as well from -22 (30/52) to -40 (26/66).
For all of that Trump is not the weakest Republican in the two hypothetical match ups we tested with Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich's lead over Sarah Palin if they were to face off would be 43-36. In that scenario Kucinich gets 16% of Republicans to Palin's 12% of Democrats and leads her by 10 points with independents at 42-32.
Obviously none of these match ups will ever happen but we were trying to get a gauge of just how weak these two Republican contenders would be and I think the fact that voters would take Dennis Kucinich over either of them gives us our answer.
Full results here
On that poll we found that there were more Republicans (15%) willing to vote for Kucinich than there were Democrats (14%) willing to vote for Trump. And Kucinich took independents by a 40-38 margin as well.
Trump was already unpopular when he started testing the Presidential waters. In February we found that his favorability was a -29 spread at 27/56. But he managed to make himself more unpopular over the course of the last three months and in our final national poll including him he was at a -41 spread at 24/65. He did improve his popularity with Republicans over the course of that time from -22 (31/53) to -8 (39/47). But with Democrats he cratered from -40 (21/61) to -70 (11/81) and he had a dramatic decline with independents as well from -22 (30/52) to -40 (26/66).
For all of that Trump is not the weakest Republican in the two hypothetical match ups we tested with Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich's lead over Sarah Palin if they were to face off would be 43-36. In that scenario Kucinich gets 16% of Republicans to Palin's 12% of Democrats and leads her by 10 points with independents at 42-32.
Obviously none of these match ups will ever happen but we were trying to get a gauge of just how weak these two Republican contenders would be and I think the fact that voters would take Dennis Kucinich over either of them gives us our answer.
Full results here
Friday, May 13, 2011
Poll suggestion time
We'll have results from West Virginia, North Carolina, and Washington next week, plus more from Virginia and our national poll. So lots to look forward to.
But where should we get into the field next weekend? Remember, our losing options in the blog readership poll this past week were Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and South Carolina.
But with Herb Kohl announcing his retirement today, and Paul Ryan making a statement on that race soon, and rumors about Tammy Baldwin jumping in, and a draft movement for Russ Feingold, it might be worth taking another look at Wisconsin. We haven't polled there in two months, and at that point, Feingold looked about as solid as Kohl did. But the recall campaigns are heating up, so it'll be interesting to see if voters are still as mad at Scott Walker. And Ryan's budget proposal hadn't come out until after our last poll, so I wonder if he'll continue the slide in popularity we saw between our December and March polls.
But where should we get into the field next weekend? Remember, our losing options in the blog readership poll this past week were Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and South Carolina.
But with Herb Kohl announcing his retirement today, and Paul Ryan making a statement on that race soon, and rumors about Tammy Baldwin jumping in, and a draft movement for Russ Feingold, it might be worth taking another look at Wisconsin. We haven't polled there in two months, and at that point, Feingold looked about as solid as Kohl did. But the recall campaigns are heating up, so it'll be interesting to see if voters are still as mad at Scott Walker. And Ryan's budget proposal hadn't come out until after our last poll, so I wonder if he'll continue the slide in popularity we saw between our December and March polls.
Economy more pressing to Americans than the War on Terror
As Wednesday’s release showed, President Obama’s bounce following the death of Osama Bin Laden was limited. The main reason, beyond hardened partisan polarization? Voters care far more about the economy at this point than they do about the decade-long War on Terror. 74% say the economy is a more important issue to them than the war, which is more important to only 10%. Similarly, 61% say they care more about gas prices, and only 23% about the war. This sentiment is shared almost equally across the partisan spectrum.
More voters (51%) give Obama at least some responsibility for gas prices than give him little to no responsibility (46%). Not good news. But most of that sentiment comes from Republicans. 49% of them say he deserves most of the responsibility, and another 34% think he bears at least some responsibility, for 83% total. But two-thirds of Democrats and 53% of independents say he deserves little to no portion of the blame.
Luckily for the president, Americans do give him more credit for killing Bin Laden than George W. Bush. 51% say Obama had more to do with it, to only 32% who say Bush. 59% of Republicans side with Bush, but 21% still think Obama deserves more plaudits, along with 77% of Democrats and half of independents.
Voters think the guy Bush rooted out from hiding, Saddam Hussein, was not nearly as terrible a person as Bin Laden was. 63% think Bin Laden was the worse human being, while only 12% say Saddam was. Democrats (67%) are most likely to say Bin Laden was more evil, but 59% of Republicans and 61% of independents say the same.
Americans also agree with the president’s decision to not release the photographic evidence of Bin Laden’s demise. 59% side with that choice, while only 34% say the photos should be released. Even Republicans, who have done most of the clamoring for the photos being made public, think they should by only a 47-44 margin.
Finally, the release of Obama's long-form birth certificate just a few days before Bin Laden's death seems to have finally settled the matter of the president's birthplace for most voters. 71% of Americans believe the president was born here. The 18% who still do not and the 11% who aren't sure may seem disturbing, and you won't get much argument from me, but that is an improvement from the 55-27-18 spread we found in February, when 47% of Republicans said "no," and another 27% weren't sure. Now, that has basically flipped, with half of Republicans knowing the president is a citizen, a third still thinking he was born elsewhere, and 17% somehow not sure. That's a 38-point swing toward sanity for the GOP and 25 points for all voters. Independents have also become significantly more convinced, from 54-19 to 72-17, a 20-point movement. Even Democrats have moved 12 points, from 82-11 to 89-6.
So Americans are happy Bin Laden is gone, they're much more satisfied Obama was born where he'd already unnecessarily proven he was, and they've given him a boost in his job performance ratings. But they're not any more likely to vote for him next year than they were before because what matters most to them--their pocketbooks--are still hurting. Americans will really be dancing in the streets with chants of "U-S-A!" when gas prices sink and their perception of the economy's progress brightens.
Full results here.
More voters (51%) give Obama at least some responsibility for gas prices than give him little to no responsibility (46%). Not good news. But most of that sentiment comes from Republicans. 49% of them say he deserves most of the responsibility, and another 34% think he bears at least some responsibility, for 83% total. But two-thirds of Democrats and 53% of independents say he deserves little to no portion of the blame.
Luckily for the president, Americans do give him more credit for killing Bin Laden than George W. Bush. 51% say Obama had more to do with it, to only 32% who say Bush. 59% of Republicans side with Bush, but 21% still think Obama deserves more plaudits, along with 77% of Democrats and half of independents.
Voters think the guy Bush rooted out from hiding, Saddam Hussein, was not nearly as terrible a person as Bin Laden was. 63% think Bin Laden was the worse human being, while only 12% say Saddam was. Democrats (67%) are most likely to say Bin Laden was more evil, but 59% of Republicans and 61% of independents say the same.
Americans also agree with the president’s decision to not release the photographic evidence of Bin Laden’s demise. 59% side with that choice, while only 34% say the photos should be released. Even Republicans, who have done most of the clamoring for the photos being made public, think they should by only a 47-44 margin.
Finally, the release of Obama's long-form birth certificate just a few days before Bin Laden's death seems to have finally settled the matter of the president's birthplace for most voters. 71% of Americans believe the president was born here. The 18% who still do not and the 11% who aren't sure may seem disturbing, and you won't get much argument from me, but that is an improvement from the 55-27-18 spread we found in February, when 47% of Republicans said "no," and another 27% weren't sure. Now, that has basically flipped, with half of Republicans knowing the president is a citizen, a third still thinking he was born elsewhere, and 17% somehow not sure. That's a 38-point swing toward sanity for the GOP and 25 points for all voters. Independents have also become significantly more convinced, from 54-19 to 72-17, a 20-point movement. Even Democrats have moved 12 points, from 82-11 to 89-6.
So Americans are happy Bin Laden is gone, they're much more satisfied Obama was born where he'd already unnecessarily proven he was, and they've given him a boost in his job performance ratings. But they're not any more likely to vote for him next year than they were before because what matters most to them--their pocketbooks--are still hurting. Americans will really be dancing in the streets with chants of "U-S-A!" when gas prices sink and their perception of the economy's progress brightens.
Full results here.
Missouri still tough turf for Obama, and a note on Huckabee's decision
The political landscape in Missouri is in stasis. Last week, we found Claire McCaskill at about the same fifty-fifty standing as in our previous poll in March. Now, in the state that featured the closest presidential contest in 2008, with John McCain winning in a photo finish, President Obama is at almost exactly the same position against his potential 2012 opponents as two months ago--slightly up on a few and slightly behind the two leading contenders.
43% approve and 53% disapprove of the president’s job performance, almost indentical to March’s 43-52 split.
As such, he trails Mike Huckabee, 44-49, and Mitt Romney, 43-45--mirrors of his 43-49 and 43-44 deficits two months ago. Obama leads Newt Gingrich, 46-44; the two were tied at 44% previously. He also matches his lead over Sarah Palin, 48-43, and bests Donald Trump, tested for the first time, 46-41. Obama is still losing double-digit percentages of Democrats, as against McCain, but he at least narrowly leads with independents, whom McCain barely won in 2008.
Despite his unpopularity, the president is seen in a better light than all the Republicans but Huckabee. Huckabee stands at 43-38, Romney at 31-45, Gingrich 29-50, Palin 33-56, and Trump 24-65.
Keeping the president further behind Huckabee and Romney than against McCain is that Missouri has yet to recover as much as other states from 2010’s hyper-Republican turnout. The poll’s respondents report having voted for McCain over Obama by five points, suggesting that Republican voters continue to be more engaged than Democrats, as was the case last year. The state seems to be trending redder, but if the electorate moves more toward 2008’s composition, the result next year could be just as close as it was last time.
Full results here.
Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi--including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest--or both--to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has.
Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.
43% approve and 53% disapprove of the president’s job performance, almost indentical to March’s 43-52 split.
As such, he trails Mike Huckabee, 44-49, and Mitt Romney, 43-45--mirrors of his 43-49 and 43-44 deficits two months ago. Obama leads Newt Gingrich, 46-44; the two were tied at 44% previously. He also matches his lead over Sarah Palin, 48-43, and bests Donald Trump, tested for the first time, 46-41. Obama is still losing double-digit percentages of Democrats, as against McCain, but he at least narrowly leads with independents, whom McCain barely won in 2008.
Despite his unpopularity, the president is seen in a better light than all the Republicans but Huckabee. Huckabee stands at 43-38, Romney at 31-45, Gingrich 29-50, Palin 33-56, and Trump 24-65.
Keeping the president further behind Huckabee and Romney than against McCain is that Missouri has yet to recover as much as other states from 2010’s hyper-Republican turnout. The poll’s respondents report having voted for McCain over Obama by five points, suggesting that Republican voters continue to be more engaged than Democrats, as was the case last year. The state seems to be trending redder, but if the electorate moves more toward 2008’s composition, the result next year could be just as close as it was last time.
Full results here.
Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi--including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest--or both--to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has.
Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.
Tomblin headed for an easy win
While the Republican race for Governor of West Virginia has changed drastically over the last three weeks the Democratic contest has barely moved at all: Earl Ray Tomblin is headed for an easy nomination victory in his quest to remain as Governor. Tomblin’s polling at 33% to 20% for Rick Thompson, 17% for Natalie Tennant, 11% for John Perdue, 4% for Jeff Kessler, and 1% for Arne Moltis. 1% of voters remain undecided.
Tomblin’s likely to win because he has strong appeal to the diverse ideological factions of the state’s Democratic primary electorate. He’s strongest with the more conservative voters- a 24 point advantage over Thompson with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters and a 15 point lead over him with ‘very conservative’ voters. But he’s also winning the left, with a 15 point edge on Tennant with ‘somewhat liberal’ voters and a 7 point lead on Thompson with ‘very liberal’ voters.
While Tomblin’s likely to win the race, Thompson might be able to take credit for winning the campaign. When we first polled this race in January he was at only 6%. The 14 point gain in support he’s seen over the course of the last three months is the greatest of any candidate. Tomblin’s seen an 8 point increase in his support while Tennant and Perdue have actually lost voters over the course of the campaign, down 7 points and 5 points respectively from the first poll.
Full results here.
Tomblin’s likely to win because he has strong appeal to the diverse ideological factions of the state’s Democratic primary electorate. He’s strongest with the more conservative voters- a 24 point advantage over Thompson with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters and a 15 point lead over him with ‘very conservative’ voters. But he’s also winning the left, with a 15 point edge on Tennant with ‘somewhat liberal’ voters and a 7 point lead on Thompson with ‘very liberal’ voters.
While Tomblin’s likely to win the race, Thompson might be able to take credit for winning the campaign. When we first polled this race in January he was at only 6%. The 14 point gain in support he’s seen over the course of the last three months is the greatest of any candidate. Tomblin’s seen an 8 point increase in his support while Tennant and Perdue have actually lost voters over the course of the campaign, down 7 points and 5 points respectively from the first poll.
Full results here.
Maloney catches Ireland
The Republican race for Governor in West Virginia has shifted dramatically in Bill Maloney’s direction over the last three weeks and he now has the smallest of leads with 32% to presumptive front runner Betty Ireland’s 31%. It’s a two person race with Clark Barnes at 8%, Larry Faircloth at 6%, Mark Sorsaia and Mitch Carmichael at 4%, Ralph William Clark at 1%, and Cliff Ellis at 0% rounding out the field. 14% of voters remain undecided even 36 hours out from election day, making this a complete toss up between Maloney and Ireland.
When PPP first polled this race in mid-April Ireland led with 31% to Maloney’s 17%. Since that point in time she has not picked up any additional support, while Maloney has seen a 15 percent gain in his standing. We found on that poll that Maloney’s primary problem was name recognition- with voters who knew who he was he actually led Ireland by 14 points, but 62% of voters were familiar with her while only 38% were familiar with Maloney. He’s now closed most of that gap- 65% of primary voters know enough about Ireland to have formed an opinion and the same is true for 60% when it comes to Maloney. Their favorability ratings are now identical at 47%, with Ireland’s negatives slightly higher at 18% to Maloney’s 13%.
If Maloney does indeed pull off the comeback victory it will continue the 2010 trend of right wing candidates knocking off comparative centrists in Republican primaries. Ireland is destroying Maloney by a 44-25 margin with voters describing themselves as moderates. But Maloney is up 33-29 with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative’ and with ‘very conservative’ voters, who account for the largest segment of the GOP electorate in the state, he’s up 36-31.
Full results here.
When PPP first polled this race in mid-April Ireland led with 31% to Maloney’s 17%. Since that point in time she has not picked up any additional support, while Maloney has seen a 15 percent gain in his standing. We found on that poll that Maloney’s primary problem was name recognition- with voters who knew who he was he actually led Ireland by 14 points, but 62% of voters were familiar with her while only 38% were familiar with Maloney. He’s now closed most of that gap- 65% of primary voters know enough about Ireland to have formed an opinion and the same is true for 60% when it comes to Maloney. Their favorability ratings are now identical at 47%, with Ireland’s negatives slightly higher at 18% to Maloney’s 13%.
If Maloney does indeed pull off the comeback victory it will continue the 2010 trend of right wing candidates knocking off comparative centrists in Republican primaries. Ireland is destroying Maloney by a 44-25 margin with voters describing themselves as moderates. But Maloney is up 33-29 with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative’ and with ‘very conservative’ voters, who account for the largest segment of the GOP electorate in the state, he’s up 36-31.
Full results here.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
The magnitude of Romney's problem
Obviously the health care issue is the biggest problem looking forward for Mitt Romney's Presidential campaign. But just how big of an obstacle is it for him? Consider these numbers:
-Nationally 61% of Republican voters say they are not willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that people have health insurance to only 17% who say they would be willing to do so and 22% who aren't sure.
We've asked that same question now in 3 of the 4 most important early Republican nomination states as well:
-In New Hampshire the numbers are almost identical to what they are nationally with 61% of GOP voters unwilling to support someone who supported a health insurance mandate even at the state level and just 14% willing to.
-In Iowa the numbers are a little bit worse, with 63% of Republicans unwilling to support someone who's supported a mandate in the past to only 11% who are willing to.
-And in Nevada the numbers are a lot worse, with 69% of GOP partisans unwilling to support someone who's supported a mandate in the past to only 7% willing to.
Now you might wonder- Romney's the early favorite in New Hampshire and Nevada and he's at or close to the top in most national polling too- how is that possible given these numbers on health insurance? The answer is at this point your average Republican primary voters doesn't know about his record on this issue. In New Hampshire he leads among GOPers unwilling to vote for someone who supported a state level mandate with 27% to 14% for Mike Huckabee and 13% for Newt Gingrich. It's a similar story in Nevada where he leads with 22% among people who say they wouldn't vote for a mandate supporter to 16% for Donald Trump and 13% for Gingrich.
It's safe to say that when voting time comes around all of those voters will know about Romney's past and it will probably cost him some of his support- the question is just how much? Is health care going to be such a litmus test for Republican voters that all of these folks supporting Romney right now will really drop him when they find out what he did in Massachusetts, or will other factors that make him appealing end up outweighing his baggage on this issue? I don't know the answer, but if GOPers really do end up treating this as a make or break issue then this early polling suggests the door is closed for Romney with more than half of primary voters.
-Nationally 61% of Republican voters say they are not willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that people have health insurance to only 17% who say they would be willing to do so and 22% who aren't sure.
We've asked that same question now in 3 of the 4 most important early Republican nomination states as well:
-In New Hampshire the numbers are almost identical to what they are nationally with 61% of GOP voters unwilling to support someone who supported a health insurance mandate even at the state level and just 14% willing to.
-In Iowa the numbers are a little bit worse, with 63% of Republicans unwilling to support someone who's supported a mandate in the past to only 11% who are willing to.
-And in Nevada the numbers are a lot worse, with 69% of GOP partisans unwilling to support someone who's supported a mandate in the past to only 7% willing to.
Now you might wonder- Romney's the early favorite in New Hampshire and Nevada and he's at or close to the top in most national polling too- how is that possible given these numbers on health insurance? The answer is at this point your average Republican primary voters doesn't know about his record on this issue. In New Hampshire he leads among GOPers unwilling to vote for someone who supported a state level mandate with 27% to 14% for Mike Huckabee and 13% for Newt Gingrich. It's a similar story in Nevada where he leads with 22% among people who say they wouldn't vote for a mandate supporter to 16% for Donald Trump and 13% for Gingrich.
It's safe to say that when voting time comes around all of those voters will know about Romney's past and it will probably cost him some of his support- the question is just how much? Is health care going to be such a litmus test for Republican voters that all of these folks supporting Romney right now will really drop him when they find out what he did in Massachusetts, or will other factors that make him appealing end up outweighing his baggage on this issue? I don't know the answer, but if GOPers really do end up treating this as a make or break issue then this early polling suggests the door is closed for Romney with more than half of primary voters.
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