Ted Strickland's approval rating is down to 43% and he leads John Kasich just 44-42 in a hypothetical 2010 contest.
A January PPP poll found 48% of Ohio voters approving of Strickland's performance with 35% disapproving. The spread is now 43/42. That survey also found him with a six point lead over Kasich, 45-39.
Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady.
Kasich is relatively unknown to the state's voters. 39% have no opinion of him- among those who do, perceptions of him are nearly evenly split with 31% holding a positive view of him and 30% an unfavorable one. Given Kasich's relative lack of popularity the closeness of this race seems more a referendum on Strickland than anything having to do with his opponent.
One significant problem- with a beam of light at the end of the tunnel- for Strickland is that he has some work to do shoring up his support with black voters in Ohio. In both this poll and our January poll he received just 52% of the African American vote against Kasich. It's not that we got a conservative sample of black voters- approval numbers on Barack Obama from this same poll that will be released later in the week show the President with an 89% approval rating among them. The good news is that Democratic candidates often under poll with African Americans, especially this far out from an election, but almost always end up earning upwards of 80% of their vote. These numbers may be a wakeup call that Strickland has some work to do there, but those voters probably aren't gone for good.
Another good piece of news for Strickland is that he is running even with Kasich among whites in the poll, and any Democrat who can split the white vote in Ohio is going to win statewide.
Nevertheless this race does look closer than has been the conventional wisdom, and it will draw a lot of national attention next year as a bellwether contest if it really ends up being this competitive.
Full results here
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query STRICKLAND. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query STRICKLAND. Sort by date Show all posts
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
Ohio Poll Roundup
I'm not going to lie- when we put out our poll a few weeks ago showing Ted Strickland with a mediocre approval rating and barely leading John Kasich I felt very queasy about it because it was so far outside the conventional wisdom of where that race stands. It's never easy to be first on that front, so it's a little reassuring that Quinnipiac and Research 2000 have now shown similar results even if I personally wish Strickland was in a more solid position.
R2K showed Strickland leading Kasich by 5, while our poll showed him up by just two. But I actually thought their poll was more worrisome for the Democrat than ours.
That's because we had the race tied among white voters. If a Democrat running statewide in Ohio can earn a split among white voters they win overall, end of story. Strickland's weak standing in our numbers had a lot to do with his leading only 52-28 among African Americans. I do think he has some real work to do there because when we polled the race in January it showed the same thing and Obama's approval rating with blacks in the same poll was around 90% so it's not like we got an unusually conservative sample of them. That said, Democrats often under poll in that demographic, especially this far out from an election, and it would be a surprise if Strickland didn't end up winning at least 80% of the black vote. That would push his lead in our survey up to 7 or 8 points.
The Research 2000 poll from yesterday though showed Strickland in a much weaker position with whites, trailing Kasich by seven points among them. It is possible for an Ohio Democrat to lose under those circumstances if black turnout is low or they just never really do get behind the party's candidate. Strickland was already doing well with African Americans in the R2K poll so there's a lot less room for improvement in that one than there was in our survey.
I don't know if something has genuinely changed for Strickland among whites in the three weeks between our poll and when this newer one was conducted or if it's just a methodological difference but either way it's not a good sign for his political standing right now. Of course it's a long way to November 2010.
R2K showed Strickland leading Kasich by 5, while our poll showed him up by just two. But I actually thought their poll was more worrisome for the Democrat than ours.
That's because we had the race tied among white voters. If a Democrat running statewide in Ohio can earn a split among white voters they win overall, end of story. Strickland's weak standing in our numbers had a lot to do with his leading only 52-28 among African Americans. I do think he has some real work to do there because when we polled the race in January it showed the same thing and Obama's approval rating with blacks in the same poll was around 90% so it's not like we got an unusually conservative sample of them. That said, Democrats often under poll in that demographic, especially this far out from an election, and it would be a surprise if Strickland didn't end up winning at least 80% of the black vote. That would push his lead in our survey up to 7 or 8 points.
The Research 2000 poll from yesterday though showed Strickland in a much weaker position with whites, trailing Kasich by seven points among them. It is possible for an Ohio Democrat to lose under those circumstances if black turnout is low or they just never really do get behind the party's candidate. Strickland was already doing well with African Americans in the R2K poll so there's a lot less room for improvement in that one than there was in our survey.
I don't know if something has genuinely changed for Strickland among whites in the three weeks between our poll and when this newer one was conducted or if it's just a methodological difference but either way it's not a good sign for his political standing right now. Of course it's a long way to November 2010.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Kasich expands lead
After holding small leads in PPP's first two Ohio polls of 2010 John Kasich has opened up a 50-40 advantage in his bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland.
The race has pretty much shaped up as a referendum on Strickland and that is not to the incumbent's advantage. Only 34% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing while 52% disapprove. Republicans are now almost universal in their disapproval of him at 83% while Democrats are a little more divided in their support of his work at 67%. Independents go against him by a 59/26 margin as well.
Ohioans are decidedly ambivalent when it comes to their feelings about Kasich himself. 33% see him favorably, 33% see him unfavorably, and 33% have no opinion. Republicans are pretty positive toward him (62/10) while Democrats are almost equally negative (7/58) and independents are split nearly right down the middle (31/29). Voters in the state don't have any particular affection for Kasich, but this election isn't really about Kasich. It's about Barack Obama and Ted Strickland and not being them is enough to have Kasich in a very strong position to win in November.
Kasich leads 44-33 with independents and is pulling 89% of the Republican vote while only 78% of Democrats are committed to Strickland at this point. Those numbers with GOP voters are one of the major developments in the race since PPP polled in late June. At that point Kasich was up only 73-12 with voters in his party but Strickland has lost almost all of his crossover support since that time and it's now an 89-5 advantage for Kasich there.
Strickland's other big issue is one Democrats everywhere are having to deal with: diminished interest from the party base. Barack Obama won Ohio by 4 points in 2008 but those planning to turn out and vote this year say they went for John McCain by a 3 point margin. Between Strickland's unpopularity and the enthusiasm gap this is now looking like a very tough office for Democrats to hold.
Full results here
The race has pretty much shaped up as a referendum on Strickland and that is not to the incumbent's advantage. Only 34% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing while 52% disapprove. Republicans are now almost universal in their disapproval of him at 83% while Democrats are a little more divided in their support of his work at 67%. Independents go against him by a 59/26 margin as well.
Ohioans are decidedly ambivalent when it comes to their feelings about Kasich himself. 33% see him favorably, 33% see him unfavorably, and 33% have no opinion. Republicans are pretty positive toward him (62/10) while Democrats are almost equally negative (7/58) and independents are split nearly right down the middle (31/29). Voters in the state don't have any particular affection for Kasich, but this election isn't really about Kasich. It's about Barack Obama and Ted Strickland and not being them is enough to have Kasich in a very strong position to win in November.
Kasich leads 44-33 with independents and is pulling 89% of the Republican vote while only 78% of Democrats are committed to Strickland at this point. Those numbers with GOP voters are one of the major developments in the race since PPP polled in late June. At that point Kasich was up only 73-12 with voters in his party but Strickland has lost almost all of his crossover support since that time and it's now an 89-5 advantage for Kasich there.
Strickland's other big issue is one Democrats everywhere are having to deal with: diminished interest from the party base. Barack Obama won Ohio by 4 points in 2008 but those planning to turn out and vote this year say they went for John McCain by a 3 point margin. Between Strickland's unpopularity and the enthusiasm gap this is now looking like a very tough office for Democrats to hold.
Full results here
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Ohio Gov Tight
The Ohio Governor's race is looking like it could go either way three days out from the election. Ted Strickland has made a huge comeback in the final months of the campaign and now trails John Kasich only 49-48. PPP's most recent previous poll, in late August, had found Strickland trailing by 10 points.
What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home. He's now winning 87% of the Democratic vote, up from only 78% in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer.
Even though Strickland has closed in the enthusiasm gap is still a significant issue for Democratic prospects in the state. Those saying they're likely to vote this year report having supported John McCain by 3 points in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 4 point victory in the state last time. That suggests there are still a lot of Democratic voters in Ohio planning to sit at home this year- if the final electorate ends up being even just a point or two more Democratic than we're anticipating it could end up being enough to put Strickland over the top.
If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents. He has an 18 point lead with them at 56-38.
Even though he's made up a lot of ground in the last couple months Strickland remains a pretty unpopular Governor. Only 41% of voters say they approve of the job he's doing while 50% disapprove. Usually those kinds of numbers would pretty much guarantee a loss for an incumbent. But Ohio voters' attitude towards Kasich, as it has been throughout most of the cycle, is 'meh.' 43% of voters like him and 42% of voters don't. That's giving Strickland room to pick up support from some voters who aren't that enthralled with the job he's done.
While the Governor's race in Ohio is all the sudden looking very interesting the Senate race is headed for a blowout. Rob Portman leads Lee Fisher 57-39. There's no doubt Fisher has proven to be a pretty weak candidate but with Barack Obama's approval spread in the state at 38/55 it's pretty doubtful that any Democrat could have won a Senate election in Ohio this year.
And despite all the initial concern about his Washington baggage and ties to the Bush administration Portman proved to be a pretty strong candidate. 50% of voters rate him favorably to only 25% with an unfavorable opinion. The most remarkable number on the Senate race is Portman's 37 point advantage with independents, at 66/29.
Full results here
What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home. He's now winning 87% of the Democratic vote, up from only 78% in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer.
Even though Strickland has closed in the enthusiasm gap is still a significant issue for Democratic prospects in the state. Those saying they're likely to vote this year report having supported John McCain by 3 points in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 4 point victory in the state last time. That suggests there are still a lot of Democratic voters in Ohio planning to sit at home this year- if the final electorate ends up being even just a point or two more Democratic than we're anticipating it could end up being enough to put Strickland over the top.
If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents. He has an 18 point lead with them at 56-38.
Even though he's made up a lot of ground in the last couple months Strickland remains a pretty unpopular Governor. Only 41% of voters say they approve of the job he's doing while 50% disapprove. Usually those kinds of numbers would pretty much guarantee a loss for an incumbent. But Ohio voters' attitude towards Kasich, as it has been throughout most of the cycle, is 'meh.' 43% of voters like him and 42% of voters don't. That's giving Strickland room to pick up support from some voters who aren't that enthralled with the job he's done.
While the Governor's race in Ohio is all the sudden looking very interesting the Senate race is headed for a blowout. Rob Portman leads Lee Fisher 57-39. There's no doubt Fisher has proven to be a pretty weak candidate but with Barack Obama's approval spread in the state at 38/55 it's pretty doubtful that any Democrat could have won a Senate election in Ohio this year.
And despite all the initial concern about his Washington baggage and ties to the Bush administration Portman proved to be a pretty strong candidate. 50% of voters rate him favorably to only 25% with an unfavorable opinion. The most remarkable number on the Senate race is Portman's 37 point advantage with independents, at 66/29.
Full results here
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Ohio Governor 2010
Strickland Approval:
Approve 48
Disapprove 35
Kasich Favorability:
Favorable 34
Unfavorable 24
Head to Head:
Strickland 45
Kasich 39
Ted Strickland would start out with the lead if John Kasich were to challenge him for Governor of Ohio in 2010, but it's certainly not an insurmountable advantage.
Strickland's approval rating is 48/35. In June we found it at 47/26, so while his approval has pretty much remained static over the last seven months, a number of people have moved from the 'no opinion' to the 'disapprove' column during that time.
A 42% plurality of voters in the state don't know enough about Kasich to have an opinion of him one way or the other. Among those who do, 34% see him favorably and 24% have an unfavorable perception of him.
One piece of good news for Strickland is that he leads Kasich 44-41 among white voters. The reason he only has a six point advantage overall is that the poll found him only winning 52-29 among black voters. Polling a long ways out from an election tends to underestimate black support for Democratic candidates but it seems likely Strickland will at least match the 77% he got against his African American opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 or exceed it. Any Ohio Democrat who wins the white vote will win a contest for statewide office.
Nevertheless if Kasich decides to make the race this will be one to watch.
Full results here.
Approve 48
Disapprove 35
Kasich Favorability:
Favorable 34
Unfavorable 24
Head to Head:
Strickland 45
Kasich 39
Ted Strickland would start out with the lead if John Kasich were to challenge him for Governor of Ohio in 2010, but it's certainly not an insurmountable advantage.
Strickland's approval rating is 48/35. In June we found it at 47/26, so while his approval has pretty much remained static over the last seven months, a number of people have moved from the 'no opinion' to the 'disapprove' column during that time.
A 42% plurality of voters in the state don't know enough about Kasich to have an opinion of him one way or the other. Among those who do, 34% see him favorably and 24% have an unfavorable perception of him.
One piece of good news for Strickland is that he leads Kasich 44-41 among white voters. The reason he only has a six point advantage overall is that the poll found him only winning 52-29 among black voters. Polling a long ways out from an election tends to underestimate black support for Democratic candidates but it seems likely Strickland will at least match the 77% he got against his African American opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 or exceed it. Any Ohio Democrat who wins the white vote will win a contest for statewide office.
Nevertheless if Kasich decides to make the race this will be one to watch.
Full results here.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Divergent Polls in Ohio
Four pollsters have released approval numbers on Ted Strickland since last November.
Two of them- Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll- show Strickland in a strong position. The most recent Quinnipiac showed Strickland at 57/29 for a net of +28. The latest Ohio Poll showed it at 56/34, or +22.
SurveyUSA and PPP show a very different picture. SUSA's most recent numbers were 45/44, or +1 and our release tonight finds 43/42, also +1.
It's worth noting that Quinnipiac and PPP are showing the same trend. In January Quinnipiac had Strickland at +38, so his +28 now is a ten point drop. We had him at +13 in January and now at +1 for a similar 12 point drop. So while we show very different pictures on Strickland's overall popularity we do both find it declining.
Why the discrepancy? I'm not sure. Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll use live interviewers while PPP and SUSA utilize automated polling, but that may or may not explain the difference.
Who's right? All four pollsters have done a good job in recent Ohio elections. Last fall Barack Obama won the state by four points. PPP, SurveyUSA, and the Ohio Poll all came within two points of that outcome, and Quinnipiac came within three.
Hillary Clinton won the state's primary by ten points. SurveyUSA picked that outcome right on the nose, PPP and the Ohio Poll each came within a point, and Quinnipiac came within five points.
It's odd for a quartet of outfits that have all shown a good track record of predicting Ohio election outcomes to show such divergent numbers, but that's probably at least somewhat attributable to the amount of time before the election, and it will doubtless become clearer as we move toward 2010 just how vulnerable Strickland is or is not.
Two of them- Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll- show Strickland in a strong position. The most recent Quinnipiac showed Strickland at 57/29 for a net of +28. The latest Ohio Poll showed it at 56/34, or +22.
SurveyUSA and PPP show a very different picture. SUSA's most recent numbers were 45/44, or +1 and our release tonight finds 43/42, also +1.
It's worth noting that Quinnipiac and PPP are showing the same trend. In January Quinnipiac had Strickland at +38, so his +28 now is a ten point drop. We had him at +13 in January and now at +1 for a similar 12 point drop. So while we show very different pictures on Strickland's overall popularity we do both find it declining.
Why the discrepancy? I'm not sure. Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll use live interviewers while PPP and SUSA utilize automated polling, but that may or may not explain the difference.
Who's right? All four pollsters have done a good job in recent Ohio elections. Last fall Barack Obama won the state by four points. PPP, SurveyUSA, and the Ohio Poll all came within two points of that outcome, and Quinnipiac came within three.
Hillary Clinton won the state's primary by ten points. SurveyUSA picked that outcome right on the nose, PPP and the Ohio Poll each came within a point, and Quinnipiac came within five points.
It's odd for a quartet of outfits that have all shown a good track record of predicting Ohio election outcomes to show such divergent numbers, but that's probably at least somewhat attributable to the amount of time before the election, and it will doubtless become clearer as we move toward 2010 just how vulnerable Strickland is or is not.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Kasich leads in Ohio
Despite continuing to be relatively unknown, John Kasich leads Ted Strickland 42-37 in his bid to be the next Governor of Ohio.
50% of voters have no opinion about Kasich and among those who do feelings about him are pretty evenly divided with 25% viewing him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Kasich's advantage likely has a lot more to do with Strickland than it does with himself. The Governor's popularity continues to decline with only 33% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove.
Strickland's base is not all that enthused about him with just 53% of Democrats expressing approval of him to 23% who disapprove and 23% with no opinion. Majorities of independents and Republicans disapprove of him by margins of 54/28 and 69/14 respectively.
Strickland and Kasich both win over most of their party's voters in the horse race, with the incumbent up 70-10 with Democrats and the challenger holding a 73-10 advantage with Republicans. Kasich's lead is due to an overwhelming 47-24 lead with independents. Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere this year, but the margin in Ohio is particularly wide.
With the country as polarized as it is right now it seems pretty safe to say that there won't be a lot of Democrats or Republicans crossing party lines in their votes for Governor this year. That means the race will come down to the independents. Right now they dislike Strickland and don't really know Kasich. For the Governor to get reelected he will have to get those voters to change their minds about him- or convince them that they dislike Kasich even more. It's going to be a difficult fight for reelection.
Full results here
50% of voters have no opinion about Kasich and among those who do feelings about him are pretty evenly divided with 25% viewing him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Kasich's advantage likely has a lot more to do with Strickland than it does with himself. The Governor's popularity continues to decline with only 33% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove.
Strickland's base is not all that enthused about him with just 53% of Democrats expressing approval of him to 23% who disapprove and 23% with no opinion. Majorities of independents and Republicans disapprove of him by margins of 54/28 and 69/14 respectively.
Strickland and Kasich both win over most of their party's voters in the horse race, with the incumbent up 70-10 with Democrats and the challenger holding a 73-10 advantage with Republicans. Kasich's lead is due to an overwhelming 47-24 lead with independents. Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere this year, but the margin in Ohio is particularly wide.
With the country as polarized as it is right now it seems pretty safe to say that there won't be a lot of Democrats or Republicans crossing party lines in their votes for Governor this year. That means the race will come down to the independents. Right now they dislike Strickland and don't really know Kasich. For the Governor to get reelected he will have to get those voters to change their minds about him- or convince them that they dislike Kasich even more. It's going to be a difficult fight for reelection.
Full results here
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Ohio: Running Mate Impacts
| | More likely to vote for Obama | Less likely to vote for Obama | Voting Obama regardless of running mate | Voting McCain regardless of running mate |
| | 19 | 15 | 34 | 29 |
| Strickland | 11 | 15 | 37 | 30 |
Governor Strickland has a 47/26 approval rating, but when it comes to putting him on the ticket, 15% of Ohioans say that would make them less likely to vote for Obama, while just 11% say it would make them more likely to vote for him. Strickland has sworn off consideration for placement on the ticket, and this survey is confirmation that for the most part Ohio voters would like him to complete his term as Governor.
The poll also found that Obama choosing Senator Clinton as his running mate would have a net positive impact in the state. 19% said they would be more likely to vote for Obama, while 15% said her presence would make them less likely to support him.
Clinton's support is particularly strong among self identified Democrats- 28% of them would be more likely to vote for Obama if she was chosen as his running mate. She could be a deterrent to the independent voters Obama hopes to attract though- 27% of them would be less likely to vote for him with Clinton on the ticket.
Full results here.Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Brutal numbers for Kasich, SB 5
Ohio Senate Bill 5 may not be in effect for very long...54% of voters in the state say they'd repeal it in an election later this year while just 31% say they'd vote to let the bill stand.
The support for repealing SB 5 is reflective of a high level of support for unions and workers in Ohio, more so than we saw in Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago. 63% of voters in the state supportive collective bargaining for public employees to only 29% who oppose it. 52% of voters think public employees should have the right to strike, to 42% who think they should not. And 65% think public employees should have the same rights they do now- or more- while only 32% believe they should have fewer rights.
There are two things particularly notable in the crosstabs on all of these questions. The first is that non-union households are supportive of the public employees. 54% support their collective bargaining rights to 36% in opposition and 44% say they would vote to repeal SB 5 to 38% who would let it stand. Obviously that level of support is not nearly as high as among union households but it still shows that the workers have even most of the non-union public behind them.
The other thing that's worth noting is the independents. A lot of attention has been given to the way what's been going on in Ohio and Wisconsin is galvanizing the Democratic base, but it's also turning independents who were strongly supportive of the GOP in the Midwest last year back against the party. 62% of independents support collective bargaining for public employees to 32% opposed and 53% support repeal of SB 5 to 32% who would let it stand.
All of this is having an absolutely brutal effect on John Kasich's numbers. We find him with just a 35% approval rating and 54% of voters disapproving of him. His approval with people who voted for him is already all the way down to 71%, while he's won over just 5% of folks who report having voted for Ted Strickland last fall. Particularly concerning for him is a 33/54 spread with independents.
Voters in the state are having significant buyers remorse about the results of last fall's election. In a rematch 55% say they would now vote for Ted Strickland to just 40% who would vote for Kasich. Because this is a sample of all registered voters in the state and not just those who voted in last fall's Republican heavy electorate the self identified 2010 vote of this sample is 49% for Strickland and 46% for Kasich but that still suggests a 12 point movement toward Strickland among those surveyed over the last four months.
Of course the reality is that Democratic leaning voters did this to themselves to some extent. It's a small sample but among those who admit they didn't vote last fall, Strickland has a 57-13 advantage over Kaisch. It was a similar story in Wisconsin the other week where Tom Barrett led Scott Walker 59-22 among those who had stayed at home in 2010. Democratic voters simply did not understand the consequences- or didn't care- of their not voting last fall and they're paying the price right now. But the winners of that realization in the long run may be Barack Obama, Sherrod Brown, and Herb Kohl- these states are already looking politically a whole lot more like 2008 than 2010.
It's looking like a tough road ahead for Kasich.
Full results here
The support for repealing SB 5 is reflective of a high level of support for unions and workers in Ohio, more so than we saw in Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago. 63% of voters in the state supportive collective bargaining for public employees to only 29% who oppose it. 52% of voters think public employees should have the right to strike, to 42% who think they should not. And 65% think public employees should have the same rights they do now- or more- while only 32% believe they should have fewer rights.
There are two things particularly notable in the crosstabs on all of these questions. The first is that non-union households are supportive of the public employees. 54% support their collective bargaining rights to 36% in opposition and 44% say they would vote to repeal SB 5 to 38% who would let it stand. Obviously that level of support is not nearly as high as among union households but it still shows that the workers have even most of the non-union public behind them.
The other thing that's worth noting is the independents. A lot of attention has been given to the way what's been going on in Ohio and Wisconsin is galvanizing the Democratic base, but it's also turning independents who were strongly supportive of the GOP in the Midwest last year back against the party. 62% of independents support collective bargaining for public employees to 32% opposed and 53% support repeal of SB 5 to 32% who would let it stand.
All of this is having an absolutely brutal effect on John Kasich's numbers. We find him with just a 35% approval rating and 54% of voters disapproving of him. His approval with people who voted for him is already all the way down to 71%, while he's won over just 5% of folks who report having voted for Ted Strickland last fall. Particularly concerning for him is a 33/54 spread with independents.
Voters in the state are having significant buyers remorse about the results of last fall's election. In a rematch 55% say they would now vote for Ted Strickland to just 40% who would vote for Kasich. Because this is a sample of all registered voters in the state and not just those who voted in last fall's Republican heavy electorate the self identified 2010 vote of this sample is 49% for Strickland and 46% for Kasich but that still suggests a 12 point movement toward Strickland among those surveyed over the last four months.
Of course the reality is that Democratic leaning voters did this to themselves to some extent. It's a small sample but among those who admit they didn't vote last fall, Strickland has a 57-13 advantage over Kaisch. It was a similar story in Wisconsin the other week where Tom Barrett led Scott Walker 59-22 among those who had stayed at home in 2010. Democratic voters simply did not understand the consequences- or didn't care- of their not voting last fall and they're paying the price right now. But the winners of that realization in the long run may be Barack Obama, Sherrod Brown, and Herb Kohl- these states are already looking politically a whole lot more like 2008 than 2010.
It's looking like a tough road ahead for Kasich.
Full results here
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Kasich holds small lead
Independents in Ohio are way down on Governor Ted Strickland and he continues to trail John Kasich in PPP's polling of the race. The good news for Democrats is that the Kasich lead is getting smaller. He's up 43-41 this month after holding a 42-37 advantage in a March PPP survey of the race.
The continuing small Republican lead in this race has very little to do with Kasich and everything to do with Strickland's poor approval numbers. Only 37% of voters in the state give him good marks while 48% disapprove of how he's doing. Republicans are much stronger in their disapproval (79%) of Strickland than Democrats are in their approval (61%). Independents also split against him by a 36/47 margin.
Kasich is an unknown to 41% of voters in the state and for those who do have an opinion it leans toward being a negative one- 30% have an unfavorable view of him to 28% with a positive one. That's a change from PPP's last poll of the race when Kasich still had slightly positive favorability numbers and an indication that early attacks on Kasich are having some impact.
In the head to head Strickland and Kasich are doing basically identically good jobs at locking up the support of their parties. 73% of Republicans are going for Kasich and 72% of Democrats are going for Strickland. But Kasich holds the slight overall lead thanks to a 45-26 advantage with independents. That overwhelming support with them has held constant in PPP's polling of the race over the last year. In March Kasich was ahead 47-24 with independents and in June 2009 it was 54-33.
This race has looked like a tossup for more than a year now and these numbers don't do much to change that reality.
Full results here
The continuing small Republican lead in this race has very little to do with Kasich and everything to do with Strickland's poor approval numbers. Only 37% of voters in the state give him good marks while 48% disapprove of how he's doing. Republicans are much stronger in their disapproval (79%) of Strickland than Democrats are in their approval (61%). Independents also split against him by a 36/47 margin.
Kasich is an unknown to 41% of voters in the state and for those who do have an opinion it leans toward being a negative one- 30% have an unfavorable view of him to 28% with a positive one. That's a change from PPP's last poll of the race when Kasich still had slightly positive favorability numbers and an indication that early attacks on Kasich are having some impact.
In the head to head Strickland and Kasich are doing basically identically good jobs at locking up the support of their parties. 73% of Republicans are going for Kasich and 72% of Democrats are going for Strickland. But Kasich holds the slight overall lead thanks to a 45-26 advantage with independents. That overwhelming support with them has held constant in PPP's polling of the race over the last year. In March Kasich was ahead 47-24 with independents and in June 2009 it was 54-33.
This race has looked like a tossup for more than a year now and these numbers don't do much to change that reality.
Full results here
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Checking in on John Kasich
-John Kasich, already unpopular in Ohio when PPP polled the state in March, has seen his numbers continue to head even further in the wrong direction and is now tied with Florida Governor Rick Scott as the least popular Governor in the country out of 38 that we have polled on. Just 33% of voters in the state now approve of Kasich to 56% who disapprove. In March it was a 35/54 spread. Kasich's numbers are basically identical to where they were then with independents, and he's actually ticked up a little bit with Democrats. What's really plunging him is that Republicans aren't even all that enthused about him anymore- he's gone from a +53 (71/18) spread with them in March to now +30 (58/28) with them in May. That 23 point decline within his own party is largely responsible for his overall drop.
-Ohio voters are having some serious, serious buyer's remorse about voting for Kasich. They now say if they could do it over again they'd vote for Ted Strickland by a 25 point margin over Kasich, 59/34. Our final poll before the election last fall, which hit the results on the head, found Kasich winning independents by 18 points. Now they say they would vote for Strickland by 16. And while only 9% of Republicans crossed party lines to support Strickland last year, now 26% say they would if they had the chance to do it over again.
-Kasich and his first term Republican brethren across the Midwest may be the best thing that's ever happened to Barack Obama's reelection chances. Obama's numbers are middling in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa to name a few. But in all of those places he's at least more popular than Kasich, Tom Corbett, Rick Snyder, and Terry Branstad. You have a situation where people voted Republican last year and are quite unhappy with the results and that might keep them from voting Republican again next year whether they're enthralled with Obama or not. That series of Midwestern losses last year may end up actually enhancing Obama's chances for another term.
-The furor over Senate Bill 5 was one of the main events precipitating Kasich's decline and voters in the state continue to strongly favor repealing it. Only 35% say they would choose to keep the law, compared to 55% who say they would scrap it. In March 54% said they would repeal to 31% who preferred keeping it so those numbers are basically unchanged. Democrats (78%) are much more into getting rid of SB 5 than Republicans (59%) are into keeping it and independents split against it by a 52/40 margin as well. 45% of voters want to take things a step further and guarantee the right to collective bargaining in the state constitution, compared to 32% who say they would be opposed to such an amendment.
Full results here
-Ohio voters are having some serious, serious buyer's remorse about voting for Kasich. They now say if they could do it over again they'd vote for Ted Strickland by a 25 point margin over Kasich, 59/34. Our final poll before the election last fall, which hit the results on the head, found Kasich winning independents by 18 points. Now they say they would vote for Strickland by 16. And while only 9% of Republicans crossed party lines to support Strickland last year, now 26% say they would if they had the chance to do it over again.
-Kasich and his first term Republican brethren across the Midwest may be the best thing that's ever happened to Barack Obama's reelection chances. Obama's numbers are middling in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa to name a few. But in all of those places he's at least more popular than Kasich, Tom Corbett, Rick Snyder, and Terry Branstad. You have a situation where people voted Republican last year and are quite unhappy with the results and that might keep them from voting Republican again next year whether they're enthralled with Obama or not. That series of Midwestern losses last year may end up actually enhancing Obama's chances for another term.
-The furor over Senate Bill 5 was one of the main events precipitating Kasich's decline and voters in the state continue to strongly favor repealing it. Only 35% say they would choose to keep the law, compared to 55% who say they would scrap it. In March 54% said they would repeal to 31% who preferred keeping it so those numbers are basically unchanged. Democrats (78%) are much more into getting rid of SB 5 than Republicans (59%) are into keeping it and independents split against it by a 52/40 margin as well. 45% of voters want to take things a step further and guarantee the right to collective bargaining in the state constitution, compared to 32% who say they would be opposed to such an amendment.
Full results here
Friday, March 26, 2010
Obama in Ohio
Our Ohio poll this week is a pretty good indication of the extent to which Democrats will sink or swim this fall depending on Barack Obama's popularity.
Ted Strickland has poor approval numbers right now but he's still leading John Kasich 79-4 with voters who approve of Obama. At the same time he's down 72-7 with voters who disapprove of Obama. There's almost total correlation between how people feel about Obama and how they're planning to vote for Governor and that makes you wonder how much of Strickland's trouble he really owns personally and how much of if it is just because people aren't that thrilled with the President.
It's a similar story in the Senate race. Jennifer Brunner's up 76-7 with voters who approve of Obama and down 65-8 with voters who don't. Lee Fisher's up 77-4 with folks who like Obama and down 71-5 those who don't.
Because feelings about the President are so polarized it seems to be having an impact on how willing voters folks are to support a candidate across party lines. That's a big part of Blanche Lincoln's problem in Arkansas right now. She got reelected in 2004 because people were willing to vote for her even as they voted against John Kerry. But voters don't seem to be separating her from Obama in their minds that much this year and although there is no doubt much of her trouble right now is self inflicted the reality is that she may have no chance this year no matter what she does because of Obama's unpopularity in the state.
There's no doubt Obama's numbers will be the biggest factor shaping this fall's results.
Ted Strickland has poor approval numbers right now but he's still leading John Kasich 79-4 with voters who approve of Obama. At the same time he's down 72-7 with voters who disapprove of Obama. There's almost total correlation between how people feel about Obama and how they're planning to vote for Governor and that makes you wonder how much of Strickland's trouble he really owns personally and how much of if it is just because people aren't that thrilled with the President.
It's a similar story in the Senate race. Jennifer Brunner's up 76-7 with voters who approve of Obama and down 65-8 with voters who don't. Lee Fisher's up 77-4 with folks who like Obama and down 71-5 those who don't.
Because feelings about the President are so polarized it seems to be having an impact on how willing voters folks are to support a candidate across party lines. That's a big part of Blanche Lincoln's problem in Arkansas right now. She got reelected in 2004 because people were willing to vote for her even as they voted against John Kerry. But voters don't seem to be separating her from Obama in their minds that much this year and although there is no doubt much of her trouble right now is self inflicted the reality is that she may have no chance this year no matter what she does because of Obama's unpopularity in the state.
There's no doubt Obama's numbers will be the biggest factor shaping this fall's results.
Friday, September 24, 2010
The Dems' Bad Midwest
There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year. If the election was today the party would almost certainly lose the Governorships it holds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It's also more than likely at this point to lose the Senate seats it has in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana, miss out on a once promising pick up opportunity in Ohio, and quite possibly lose their seat in Illinois as well. And there are too many House seats the party could lose in the region to count.
The question then is: what's going on in the Midwest? Here are four of the main reasons:
-Unpopular Democratic Governors.
Our last Ohio poll found Ted Strickland with a 34% approval rating and 52% of voters disapproving of him. That makes him the most popular Democratic Governor in the region:
When voters think the Democrats they have now are doing such a bad job they're not particularly inclined to keep the ones running for reelection or to replace the retiring ones with other Democrats.
-An Unusual Souring on Obama
Nationally we find 88% of the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are still happy with the job he's doing. But significantly larger portions of his voters have become disenchanted throughout the Midwest:
Obviously the more unhappy Obama's voters are the more likely they are to support Republicans this year and that's a trend we're seeing throughout the region.
-The Biggest Enthusiasm Gaps
Democrats are having problems turning out their base everywhere but perhaps because voters in the region are down on Obama and their Democratic Governors that's turning out to be a particularly dramatic problem in the Midwest:
Obama won these states by double digits but the 2010 electorate would make all of them except Illinois into toss ups...and there's a lot more Obama voters choosing Republicans this time than the other way around. There is perilously low interest in the midterm election among Midwestern Democrats.
A Collapse with Independents
Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere but the trend is particularly dramatic in the Midwest:
There are more Democrats than Republicans in most of these states but not enough to make up for these kinds of gaps with independents.
The question then is: what's going on in the Midwest? Here are four of the main reasons:
-Unpopular Democratic Governors.
Our last Ohio poll found Ted Strickland with a 34% approval rating and 52% of voters disapproving of him. That makes him the most popular Democratic Governor in the region:
| State | Governor | Approval |
| Ted Strickland | Ohio | 34/52 |
| Jim Doyle | Wisconsin | 29/62 |
| Jennifer Granholm | Michigan | 29/63 |
| Chet Culver | Iowa | 28/56 |
| Ed Rendell | Pennsylvania | 27/63 |
| Pat Quinn | Illinois | 23/53 |
When voters think the Democrats they have now are doing such a bad job they're not particularly inclined to keep the ones running for reelection or to replace the retiring ones with other Democrats.
-An Unusual Souring on Obama
Nationally we find 88% of the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are still happy with the job he's doing. But significantly larger portions of his voters have become disenchanted throughout the Midwest:
| State | % of Obama voters still approving |
| Illinois | 87 |
| Ohio | 82 |
| Iowa | 82 |
| Michigan | 79 |
| Pennsylvania | 78 |
| Wisconsin | 78 |
Obviously the more unhappy Obama's voters are the more likely they are to support Republicans this year and that's a trend we're seeing throughout the region.
-The Biggest Enthusiasm Gaps
Democrats are having problems turning out their base everywhere but perhaps because voters in the region are down on Obama and their Democratic Governors that's turning out to be a particularly dramatic problem in the Midwest:
| State | 2010 Electorate | 2008 Vote | Gap |
| Illinois | Obama +9 | Obama +25 | 16 pts |
| Michigan | Obama +1 | Obama +16 | 15 pts |
| Wisconsin | Even | Obama +14 | 14 pts |
| Pennsylvania | McCain +1 | Obama +10 | 11 pts |
| Iowa | Even | Obama +10 | 10 pts |
| Ohio | McCain +3 | Obama +4 | 7 pts |
Obama won these states by double digits but the 2010 electorate would make all of them except Illinois into toss ups...and there's a lot more Obama voters choosing Republicans this time than the other way around. There is perilously low interest in the midterm election among Midwestern Democrats.
A Collapse with Independents
Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere but the trend is particularly dramatic in the Midwest:
| Race | Republican Lead w/Independents |
| Michigan Governor | 40 |
| Pennsylvania Governor | 32 |
| Iowa Senate | 30 |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 27 |
| Illinois Governor | 25 |
| Illinois Senate | 16 |
| Iowa Governor | 16 |
| Ohio Senate | 13 |
| Wisconsin Governor | 12 |
| Ohio Governor | 11 |
| Wisconsin Senate | 11 |
There are more Democrats than Republicans in most of these states but not enough to make up for these kinds of gaps with independents.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Our Governor approval ratings
Here's the ratings on all the Governors we've looked at so far in 2009:
| Governor | Approval |
| Mike Beebe (D-AR) | 68/20 |
| Jack Markell (D-DE) | 62/17 |
| Pat Quinn (D-IL) | 49/25 |
| Ted Strickland (D-OH) | 48/35 |
| Steve Beshear (D-KY) | 47/37 |
| Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) | 46/40 |
| Bev Perdue (D-NC) | 41/40 |
| Rick Perry (R-TX) | 41/48 |
| Bill Ritter (D-CO) | 41/49 |
Friday, September 3, 2010
Ohio Miscellaneous
-Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot in Ohio 47-41. GOP voters are planning to support their party's candidates by a 94-1 margin, really a remarkable degree of unity. They also have a 36-23 advantage with independents. The question in Ohio is not whether Republicans will pick up House seats, but just how big the number will be.
-In his attempt at a political comeback former Senator Mike DeWine leads incumbent Attorney General Richard Cordray 44-40. Cordray's doing better than either Ted Strickland or Lee Fisher and actually leads 40-34 with independents. But DeWine's getting 80% of Republicans to Cordray's 70% of Democrats. Ohio voters are pretty ambivalent toward DeWine with 35% saying they have a favorable opinion of him, 33% unfavorable, and 32% holding no opinion one way or the other.
-LeBron James' favorability in Ohio is 19% with 34% of voters viewing him negatively. Those numbers actually aren't that much worse than what we found for him nationally in July at 19/29. There's a very large racial divide when it comes to his numbers- African Americans see him favorably 58/16, while whites have a negative opinion 15/37. Interestingly James' numbers are slightly better with folks who describe themselves as Cavs fans (28/42) than those who don't (14/30).
-Ohio is pretty emblematic of the national trend of voters hating Republicans and voting for them anyway. Only 29% of voters in the state think the GOP is heading in the right direction while 55% disapprove of it. With independents it's a 13/61 spread. Nevertheless the party is poised to pick up the Governor's office and hold on to its Senate seat.
Full results here
-In his attempt at a political comeback former Senator Mike DeWine leads incumbent Attorney General Richard Cordray 44-40. Cordray's doing better than either Ted Strickland or Lee Fisher and actually leads 40-34 with independents. But DeWine's getting 80% of Republicans to Cordray's 70% of Democrats. Ohio voters are pretty ambivalent toward DeWine with 35% saying they have a favorable opinion of him, 33% unfavorable, and 32% holding no opinion one way or the other.
-LeBron James' favorability in Ohio is 19% with 34% of voters viewing him negatively. Those numbers actually aren't that much worse than what we found for him nationally in July at 19/29. There's a very large racial divide when it comes to his numbers- African Americans see him favorably 58/16, while whites have a negative opinion 15/37. Interestingly James' numbers are slightly better with folks who describe themselves as Cavs fans (28/42) than those who don't (14/30).
-Ohio is pretty emblematic of the national trend of voters hating Republicans and voting for them anyway. Only 29% of voters in the state think the GOP is heading in the right direction while 55% disapprove of it. With independents it's a 13/61 spread. Nevertheless the party is poised to pick up the Governor's office and hold on to its Senate seat.
Full results here
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Independents going Republican pretty universally
In the last month PPP has polled on 16 different actual or potential 2009 or 2010 contests for Governor and Senator around the country, and in 13 of those independent voters have favored the Republican candidate.
Part of that has to do with the decreasing number of Americans identifying as Republicans in recent years. While they're eschewing the party's label, they're still conservative and more often than not voting for the party's candidates. An analysis we did last week found more than three times as many conservatives as liberals in the independent ranks nationally, and that in some of the states we've polled recently that gap is as wide as 7:1.
Nevertheless Democrats last year, including President Obama, did quite well with independents. This early success the GOP is having with them looking toward 2012 does seem to indicate a certain level of support for more divided government moving forward, as well as some dissatisfaction with the President and Democrats in Congress.
Here are the numbers among independents for races we've polled recently:
Most immediately Bob McDonnell has a 54-33 lead over Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Chris Christie has a 60-26 one over Jon Corzine in New Jersey.
On our Louisiana poll today David Vitter led a generic Democrat 45-27 and Charlie Melancon 43-25.
On the North Carolina poll we released last week Richard Burr had a 38-28 lead with independents on the generic ballot, a 39-21 one over Cal Cunningham, and a 39-22 one over Kenneth Lewis.
Norm Coleman trailed two out of three potential Democratic opponents we pitted him against for Governor overall, but he still led all three with indies. It was 39-31 over Mark Dayton, 36-34 over RT Rybak, and 43-24 over Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
In Ohio Ted Strickland narrowly led John Kasich overall, but was down 54-33 with independents.
In Wisconsin Jim Doyle had a 55-30 deficit against Scott Walker and a 48-30 one against Mark Neumann.
The only Democrats breaking the trend were Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, holding leads of nine and one points respectively, and Russ Feingold with a 45-38 lead over Paul Ryan.
Part of that has to do with the decreasing number of Americans identifying as Republicans in recent years. While they're eschewing the party's label, they're still conservative and more often than not voting for the party's candidates. An analysis we did last week found more than three times as many conservatives as liberals in the independent ranks nationally, and that in some of the states we've polled recently that gap is as wide as 7:1.
Nevertheless Democrats last year, including President Obama, did quite well with independents. This early success the GOP is having with them looking toward 2012 does seem to indicate a certain level of support for more divided government moving forward, as well as some dissatisfaction with the President and Democrats in Congress.
Here are the numbers among independents for races we've polled recently:
Most immediately Bob McDonnell has a 54-33 lead over Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Chris Christie has a 60-26 one over Jon Corzine in New Jersey.
On our Louisiana poll today David Vitter led a generic Democrat 45-27 and Charlie Melancon 43-25.
On the North Carolina poll we released last week Richard Burr had a 38-28 lead with independents on the generic ballot, a 39-21 one over Cal Cunningham, and a 39-22 one over Kenneth Lewis.
Norm Coleman trailed two out of three potential Democratic opponents we pitted him against for Governor overall, but he still led all three with indies. It was 39-31 over Mark Dayton, 36-34 over RT Rybak, and 43-24 over Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
In Ohio Ted Strickland narrowly led John Kasich overall, but was down 54-33 with independents.
In Wisconsin Jim Doyle had a 55-30 deficit against Scott Walker and a 48-30 one against Mark Neumann.
The only Democrats breaking the trend were Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, holding leads of nine and one points respectively, and Russ Feingold with a 45-38 lead over Paul Ryan.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Portman takes the lead
Strongly benefiting from Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state Rob Portman has taken a 45-38 lead over over Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race.
Both of the candidates continue to be relatively unknown. 44% of voters don't know enough about Fisher to have formed an opinion and the same is true for 43% when it comes to Portman. But Obama's approval rating in the state is a pretty dreadful 41/54 spread and Fisher's attracting only 9% of the vote from people unhappy with Obama. It's going to be difficult for Democrats to win anywhere that the President's disapproval is over 50% if their candidate doesn't have a strong ability to make voters separate their feelings about Obama from their feelings about him/her.
Portman's lead over Fisher is built on what's becoming a pretty regular formula for Republican candidates across the country. He's winning independents 43-30, and he's taking 83% of his party's voters while only 71% of Democrats are committed to Fisher.
There's a lot more hope for Democrats in this race than there is in the Governor's race in Ohio though. 21% of the undecided voters are Democrats compared to only 9% who are Republicans so Fisher has a lot more potential room for growth than Ted Strickland does.
Those undecideds in Ohio tell an interesting story. 54% of them voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who supported John McCain. But they also now disapprove of the President's job performance by a 40/46 margin. The folks who voted for Obama, are disappointed in him now, but aren't sold on the Republicans are probably this year's ultimate swing voters. The way they end up deciding to cast their votes in November is going to make and break a lot of politicians' fortunes.
Things aren't looking great for Fisher now but there's a definite path to victory for him- get the undecided Democrats to come home and reduce the enthusiasm gap by getting his party's voters more interested in the election. Easier said than done, but more than some Democratic candidates can hang their hats on.
Full results here
Both of the candidates continue to be relatively unknown. 44% of voters don't know enough about Fisher to have formed an opinion and the same is true for 43% when it comes to Portman. But Obama's approval rating in the state is a pretty dreadful 41/54 spread and Fisher's attracting only 9% of the vote from people unhappy with Obama. It's going to be difficult for Democrats to win anywhere that the President's disapproval is over 50% if their candidate doesn't have a strong ability to make voters separate their feelings about Obama from their feelings about him/her.
Portman's lead over Fisher is built on what's becoming a pretty regular formula for Republican candidates across the country. He's winning independents 43-30, and he's taking 83% of his party's voters while only 71% of Democrats are committed to Fisher.
There's a lot more hope for Democrats in this race than there is in the Governor's race in Ohio though. 21% of the undecided voters are Democrats compared to only 9% who are Republicans so Fisher has a lot more potential room for growth than Ted Strickland does.
Those undecideds in Ohio tell an interesting story. 54% of them voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who supported John McCain. But they also now disapprove of the President's job performance by a 40/46 margin. The folks who voted for Obama, are disappointed in him now, but aren't sold on the Republicans are probably this year's ultimate swing voters. The way they end up deciding to cast their votes in November is going to make and break a lot of politicians' fortunes.
Things aren't looking great for Fisher now but there's a definite path to victory for him- get the undecided Democrats to come home and reduce the enthusiasm gap by getting his party's voters more interested in the election. Easier said than done, but more than some Democratic candidates can hang their hats on.
Full results here
Quantifying the Enthusiasm Gap
We hear about the enthusiasm gap all the time, usually in pretty abstract terms. Here it is in black and white: in 10 key races for Senate and Governor in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri it's costing Democratic candidates (or Charlie Crist) an average of 7 points on the margin.
If the folks planning to turn out this year matched the 2008 electorate:
-Alex Sink running for Governor in Florida and Alexi Giannoulias running for the Senate in Illinois would have double digit leads.
-Elaine Marshall running for Senate in North Carolina and Pat Quinn running for Governor in Illinois would have small leads instead of trailing.
-Ted Strickland running for Governor in Ohio, Lee Fisher running for Senate in Ohio, Joe Sestak running for Senate in Pennsylvania, and Robin Carnahan running for Senate in Missouri would all be within three points rather than trailing by 7-10 as they do now.
This year isn't getting away from the Democrats because voters are moving toward the Republicans en masse. But the enthusiasm gap is turning races that would otherwise be lean Democratic into toss ups, turning toss ups into leaning Republican, and turning leaning Republican into solid Republican.
Here's the full data on all those races:
If the folks planning to turn out this year matched the 2008 electorate:
-Alex Sink running for Governor in Florida and Alexi Giannoulias running for the Senate in Illinois would have double digit leads.
-Elaine Marshall running for Senate in North Carolina and Pat Quinn running for Governor in Illinois would have small leads instead of trailing.
-Ted Strickland running for Governor in Ohio, Lee Fisher running for Senate in Ohio, Joe Sestak running for Senate in Pennsylvania, and Robin Carnahan running for Senate in Missouri would all be within three points rather than trailing by 7-10 as they do now.
This year isn't getting away from the Democrats because voters are moving toward the Republicans en masse. But the enthusiasm gap is turning races that would otherwise be lean Democratic into toss ups, turning toss ups into leaning Republican, and turning leaning Republican into solid Republican.
Here's the full data on all those races:
| Race | Most Recent Poll | 2010 Electorate | Most Recent Poll w/2008 Electorate | 2008 Result | Enthusiasm Gap Impact |
| Ohio Governor | R+10 | McCain +3 | R+3 | Obama +4 | R+7 |
| Ohio Senate | R+7 | McCain +3 | R+2 | Obama +4 | R+5 |
| NC Senate | R+5 | McCain +9 | D+1 | Obama +1 | R+6 |
| Florida Governor | D+7 | McCain +3 | D+12 | Obama +3 | R+5 |
| Florida Senate | R+8 | McCain +3 | R+4 | Obama +3 | R+4 |
| Penn Gov | R+13 | McCain +1 | R+6 | Obama +10 | R+7 |
| Penn Sen | R+9 | McCain +1 | Tied | Obama +10 | R+9 |
| Illinois Governor | R+9 | Obama +9 | D+1 | Obama +25 | R+10 |
| Illinois Senate | D+2 | Obama +9 | D+13 | Obama +25 | R+11 |
| Missouri Senate | R+7 | McCain +7 | R+1 | Tied | R+6 |
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