Schools could suffer in Wake of contradictions

A recent survey by the News and Observer collected the opinions of 1000 Wake County residents on the quality of Wake County schools and how to fund them. Before we go into a discussion of some of the results and crosstabs it is important to note the methodology. This is a survey of Wake County residents, not likely voters and especially not likely voters for the upcoming municipal and school board elections. So while these results are interesting and important, they are not necessarily the best predictor of any future election outcomes.

In the current whirlwind of the year-round schooling hubbub and calls for smarter growth, the results from the May 30th, 2007 poll reflect that not only do Wake county residents overwhelmingly oppose a possible school bond package (63% oppose it while only 26% support it), they also oppose new property and sales tax increases to pay for schools and do not think the Wake County School Board, County commissioners, or elected officials are handling the growth well. There seems to be a number of contradictions in the survey’s findings that are somewhat alarming.

For example, although 57% of people rate the quality of Wake County Public Schools as excellent or good, only 23% said they favor raising property taxes “to pay for building more public schools and reduce crowding at Wake’s public schools.” It seems as if people want it both ways: they want to see the continued high quality of education provided to their children but they don’t want to pay for that service through property taxes that would help schools keep up with the massive growth. Also, a majority of people rate the School Board, county commissioners, and elected officials fair or poor when it comes to how well they are keeping up with growth. That rating seems strange considering that citizens are unwilling to pay the taxes that would help leaders keep up with the growth.

One telling result that shows just how unpopular Wake County’s recent property tax increases have been is the fact that even 65% of Democrats surveyed are opposed to increasing property taxes to pay for schools. Although more Republicans, 77%, oppose a property tax increases, a rising trend of Democratic opposition does not bode well for future bond proposals.

There are clear party differences when it comes to how Wake county residents view school performance. Sixty-five percent of Democrats who responded gave Wake County public schools a good or excellent rating, while only 53% of Republicans ranked Wake County schools as good or excellent. When asked whether they favor or oppose year-round schools, there were little differences between party responses. Age and income, however, affect opinion. Not surprisingly, respondents 65 years old and older show less opposition to year-round schools. Older citizens are more apt to support year-round schools because they do not have young children. However, when it comes to paying higher taxes to fund those schools, their opposition increases (at least 75% of people older than 50 oppose raising property taxes to support schools), showing another contradiction in the findings. Respondents with household incomes of $20,000 or less showed very strong opposition to higher taxes to year around schooling, with only 38% of respondents in favor. All other income ranges above $20,000 show at least 50% support, with several showing well over half of the respondents in favor of year-round schools.

Some of the survey questions themselves may have affected the responses. The question about a proposed $500 million to $1 billion school bond referendum on this year’s ballot stated that “it would pay for new schools to reduce crowing and would likely raise property taxes.” The fact that the question mentioned that the bond would raise property taxes might have influenced how people responded and led them to oppose it. It is obvious that people would oppose raising taxes, and framing the question in that way could have affected the results. The survey did mention other types of taxes that could help pay for public schools, such as impact fees and a transfer tax (the state legislature would have to grant authority first), but only the school bond question mentioned property taxes.

The questions dealing with how well Wake county leaders have handled growth also seem vague and do not specifically mention growth pertaining to schools. The term growth can apply to many different aspects of the county, including urban development, school, housing, and traffic.

BY Carrie and Mark

The Republican's Education Problem

D.G. Martin, a Democrat and current print, radio and TV personality, who seems to have done a little bit of everything including running for U.S Senate, was a guest panelist at the latest Civitas luncheon along with former Supreme Court Justice and current Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Orr.

They were discussing the latest Civitas Poll which indicated high levels of frustration with North Carolina’s public schools. For example, one question asked “If money was not an issue, would you send your child to private or parochial school instead of a public school?” 49% said yes they would send their child to private school, while only 40% said they would stay in public school.

Many of the conservative attendees were frustrated that the public doesn’t like the way the public schools are run, yet they elect Democrats to lead the state government, often because their perceive Democrats to be stronger on education. But if they don’t like the schools, why not give Republicans a chance to fix them, they said.

D.G. describes this discussion in better detail and provides his explanation in his latest newspaper column. This quote summarizes it pretty well:

“The public worries that Republicans don’t really believe in public schools. It may not be fair. Republicans might really strongly want to help the schools. But their overall message of cutting government to save money and lower taxes comes across as a plan to cut resources to our schools rather than to strengthen them.”

It’s an interesting argument. Republicans are in a bind because two of their messages are seemingly incongruous, cutting taxes/government and strengthening schools.

My two cents: The problem isn’t the incongruity, it’s about priorities. Education is the number one issue for Democrats on the state level and so their concern for schools comes across as more sincere. Education is lower on the priority scale for Republicans behind cutting taxes, stopping illegal immigration, and other social issues.

Take a look at the NC GOP Platform. Education is Article #7. Unfortunately for comparisons sake, the Democratic Platform is arranged alphabetically.

But it is still could be a problem for Democrats that their favorite issue, public education, isn't very popular.

Public Opinion on Conference Realignment

Most Texans are glad that their state's major college athletic programs stayed in the Big 12 Conference. And they'd like to see a couple other home state schools added to fill the void left by the departure of Colorado to the PAC 10 and Nebraska to the Big 10.

44% of Texas voters are glad that Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech remained in the Big 12. Those who would have supported a move to another conference would have been much more in favor of heading to the SEC than the PAC 10. 15% would like those colleges to align with the schools in the Southeast while just 7% support going with the western schools. 32% of voters in the state don't have an opinion on what conference the schools should be in.

Support for remaining in the Big 12 is particularly strong among the partisans of the Longhorns, Aggies, and Red Raiders. 56% of Texas fans, 55% of Texas Tech fans, and 52% of Texas A&M fans favor the decision for their schools to stay right where they are.

Voters with an opinion on the matter strongly favor taking TCU as a new member of the Big 12 and support adding Houston as well, although by a lesser margin. 47% of voters in the state think TCU should join the conference with 15% opposed and 37% having no opinion. It's interesting to note that Baylor fans support letting TCU in by a 44/8 margin, even though reports have suggested the school's administration would like the Horned Frogs kept out. Fans of TCU itself support going to the Big 12 by a 58-2 margin, and partisans of the schools in the state currently in the Big 12 all support TCU's admission. Only Houston fans, perhaps worried a TCU bid would keep them out of the conference, oppose their moving up.

43% of voters think Houston should be added to the Big 12 with 22% opposed and 35% holding no opinion.

Public opinion doesn't play a huge role in conference realignments but whether it was part of their equation or not the administrations at Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech made the popular move by keeping their schools in the Big 12. And they'd curry more favor, at least within the state of Texas, by adding Houston and TCU and bringing the Big 12 more toward something resembling the old Southwestern Conference.

Full results here

Wake County Schools: Bond in 2007?

In light of yesterday’s ruling by Superior Court Judge Howard Manning against mandatory year-round schools in Wake County I thought I would remind everyone of a poll we took back in January (PDF).

If Wake County cannot ease its school overcrowding problems with year-round schools the School Board and County Commissioners might be pressured to put another bond referendum on the ballot this year. Wake County approved a $970 million bond just last year.

In January we asked Wake County voters if they would be willing to vote for another billion dollar school bond in 2007. The results show that such a bond would fail miserably, 26%-68%. Of course, that was less than 3 months after the last bond referendum, and in response to Judge Manning’s decision the school crisis might make people more willing to support another bond this.

The conclusion from our January poll was that voters wanted to wait until at least 2008 for another bond.

UNC/Duke Polling

Every year around this time we're saturated with news stories, essays, even books about how much hatred there is in the UNC-Duke rivalry. But do most Tar Heel and Blue Devil fans really hate each other's schools? Our scientific polling indicates no.

35% of North Carolinians will be rooting for UNC Wednesday night compared to 21% pulling for Duke and 44% who don't care one way or the other. Among those respondents who do have a team they prefer in the game just 18%- 20% of Duke fans and 17% of UNC fans- say that they 'hate' their rival.

We broke that down further by whether folks are 'hardcore,' 'moderate,' or just 'casual' fans of that school. Not surprisingly the most passionate fans are the most likely to express hatred of their rival -32% of them do- 42% of Duke fans and 29% of UNC fans. But it's still nowhere near a majority.

So even if UNC and Duke fans don't generally hate each other's schools they must at least hate each other's coaches, right? Not so much. UNC backers view Mike Krzyzewski favorably by a 46/26 margin, while Duke fans see Roy Williams in a positive light by a much more narrow 27/24 spread. Those positive numbers hold true with even with the strongest backers of each team- Krzyzewski is at 45/35 with hardcore UNC fans and Williams is at 46/32 with the same for Duke.

UNC and Duke fans have more respect for each other's schools than we ever would have thought.

Here are some other notes from the poll:

-Despite the UNC basketball team's woes this season Roy Williams isn't seeing much of a dip in his popularity. He's viewed favorably by a 72/3 margin among all UNC fans and by an 82/2 spread with hardcore ones. This poll was taken right after the team's back to back losses to Clemson and Georgia Tech in mid-January.

-UNC fans are much more into it than Duke ones. 39% of Tar Heel backers describe themselves as hardcore to 28% casual. For Duke it's 19% hardcore and 43% casual.

-North Carolinians are more likely to have an opinion one way or the other about Krzyzewski than Williams- 57% for the Duke coach to 49% for UNC's.

-Confirming the conventional wisdom, the further you move left across the ideological spectrum the more likely you are to be cheering for Carolina Wednesday night. Conservatives go for UNC by a 32-23 margin, followed by moderates at 36-20, and liberals at 41-17.

Full results here

More on Civitas

Max Borders of Civitas, not surprisingly, does not like my view of their question about illegal immigrants and the community college system. He posted about it here.

Again, here's how they worded their question:

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE DECISION BY THE NORTH CAROLINA COMMUNITY COLLEGE SYSTEM TO REQUIRE LOCAL COMMUNITY COLLEGES TO ADMIT 18 YEAR OLD ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND CHARGE THEM OUT-OF-STATE TUITION RATES?

The problem with this is that you're giving respondents two reasons to say no. Some people, probably conservatives, might say no because they don't think illegal immigrants should be able to attend local community colleges. Other people, probably liberals, might say no because they don't think the illegal immigrants should be charged out of state tuition rates if they have lived in North Carolina for much of their lives. Civitas set up the question to elicit a specific answer, and they know that.

I think my wording of the question is much more straight forward:

Do you think the children of illegal immigrants, who have attended North Carolina's public schools, should be able to attend the state's Community Colleges?

Should folks who have grown up in North Carolina and been educated in our public schools be able to continue their education in our community colleges or not? That's the thrust of the issue from my vantage. You can start addressing other parts of the issue from there but that's the big picture.

It would also be interesting to see the crosstabs on that one. Democratic gubernatorial candidates Richard Moore and Bev Perdue both came out against letting the children of illegal immigrants attend our community colleges. But if 39% of the folks Civitas polled said they agreed with the Community College system's decision, then I would guess that includes a majority of Democrats. Moore and Perdue took what they thought was the politically safe position, and maybe it insulates them in the general election, but they both missed out on an opportunity to show some leadership that would have been popular with voters in the primary.

Being honest with polls

I was very impressed with the two guest speakers at the Civitas luncheon, freshman Representatives Ric Killian (R-Mecklenburg) and Larry Hall (D-Durham). They were insightful, engaging and knowledgeable of the issues that were raised during the discussion. Representative Hall made one point that I thought deserved some more discussion. He said that we all needed to be honest about what the polls really mean and how we use them to justify our arguments.

He gave a good example from the Civitas poll. One question asked: “One-third of North Carolina students who start high school do not graduate. Would you support or oppose an increase in the number of charter schools that provide extensive career and technical training as one way to increase the number of students who stay in school and graduate?” 75% support, 16% opposed

That question could be used to justify arguments in favor of more charter schools, but would the results have turned out any differently if we switched the word charter for public? Are not people actually in favor of more extensive career and technical training? Larry Hall thinks so, and I do too.

Pollsters are often in precarious situations like this. While it is our job to measure public opinion, often times we are used by clients and others to help make justifications for their own arguments. To show that the public is behind your proposal can be a powerful lobbying and public relations tool.

PPP and every other pollster are caught up in this. And it’s important for people who are trying to interpret our poll results to be honest about what the results are really saying.

TCC Survey on growth in Raleigh-Cary

The Triangle Community Coalition has released a poll of Raleigh and Cary municipal election voters. You can read about it here and get the results here (PDF). After reading through it the strongest message that comes through is that Raleigh and Cary voters are happy. The positively rate the quality of life and the state of the local economy; they think their cities are generally headed in the right direction; and they strongly approve of the work being done by their respective city councils.

Here is the question that I was happy to see: Cary = Red, Raleigh = Blue



I think this chart sums up really well how Raleigh and Cary feel about growth. But I am not sure how this plays out in the upcoming Raleigh City Council elections, because I think all of the candidates fit into the “encourage growth, but manage it more carefully” category. The issues are really which controls to use. For example, some favor impact fees as a way to manage the costs of growth, while others do not.

(I don’t know enough about the Cary elections to comment intelligently. If someone would like to write a guest post about Cary elections and the implications of polling data, I would be happy to post it here.)

I will take issue with the following question. Which of the following would you say is the biggest benefit that comes from housing growth in your area?

20% A larger base of taxpayers to share the tax burden
17% Lots of jobs and a strong economy
16% Better choices of housing and places to live
16% More diversity of people and cultures
7% Better schools and more education opportunities
6% More shopping and access to conveniences
3% Recreational and entertainment opportunities
6% No benefits from growth (volunteered)
5% Other

The TCC spins the result of this question to suggest that voters see low taxes as a benefit of growth, but I don’t think that’s true. People like lower taxes, so when the pollster provides the choice of “lower taxes” as an answer to this question, it’s not surprising that many people chose it.

Besides, I don’t think that answer itself, a larger tax base, is true either. Sure the tax base is larger, but overall there are more taxes needed to be collected. The more people who move here, the higher taxes are going to be for everyone, so that we can catch up on the infrastructure needs likes schools, roads, water and sewer, and parks. Raleigh is relative low-tax compared to other similarly sized urban areas, and especially compared to other fast growing urban areas.

I’d have liked to see the opposite question asked too. What is the biggest downfall from housing growth?

The survey was conducted by Fallon Research and Communications between July 22 and 24. The survey consisted of 407 registered voters in Raleigh and Cary who have a history of voting in municipal elections.

Misrepresenting the transfer tax debate

Many legislative issues are too complicated for quick poll questions. Some need more explanation and I think the transfer tax is one of those issues. While the smoking ban, for example, is self-explanatory.

The transfer tax is not simply one more tax to give the government more of your money. The unfortunate reality in many counties is that tax revenue is not keeping up with the costs of building schools and roads. The transfer tax proposal is a way to give local governments another stream of revenue so that they don’t have to hike property taxes…again.

If you simply ask do you support a new tax to raise revenue, without explaining what the money is for or in the case of the transfer tax how this will save you from more property taxes, of course people are going to be against it! That’s pretty much exactly what Elon did:

“As you are likely aware, there are some proposals being considered for raising revenue for North Carolina local governments . . . one way to do this is using a county land transfer tax, also called a real estate transfer tax . . . just so I'm clear a land transfer tax is a tax charged when someone buys or sells property… Would you support or oppose the land transfer tax?”

The transfer tax is not raising revenue for the sake of revenue. It's proposed because there is a need for more money for infrastructure like schools and property taxes are being raised too much.

Wake Schools Poll

Wake County voters are extremely polarized in their feelings about the new majority on the School Board, but one thing there does seem to be a consensus on is that there should be a price tag before the district moves forward with changes to its assignment policy.

47% of voters in the county disapprove of the actions of the new majority so far with 42% approving. Feelings about them divide strongly on party lines. 61% of Republicans think they're doing a good job to 25% who disagree, while only 29% of Democrats like what they're doing to 64% who dissent. Independents are almost evenly divided with 46% supporting the new majority to 42% disapproving.

There's considerable division about some of the key issues in the district recently. 42% think changes to the assignment policy will result in segregated schools while 45% disagree. 42% think the School Board has been respectful to people with differing viewpoints while 48% do not believe it has.

One thing there is general agreement on is that the Board should do a full analysis of the cost to taxpayers before proceeding with changes to the assignment policy. And if the proposed changes would result in any additional cost to taxpayers voters in the county are opposed to it.

62% of voters support the full cost analysis to only 25% in opposition. 69% of Democrats, 65% of independents, and 49% of Republicans think that needs to happen. Only 32% of voters would support the changes to the assignment policy if they resulted in any additional cost with 42% opposed and 26% unsure. Bucking the usual trends Republican support the new policy regardless of its fiscal impact by a 43/27 margin. Democrats are against it by a 56/26 margin if it's more expensive and independents are nearly evenly divided.

Based on these poll results it's pretty hard for either side to claim a mandate right now for anything other than knowing the costs before moving forward. Beyond that the county is extremely divided in its feelings about the changes to the assignment policy.

Full results here

Georgia-Georgia Tech

Georgia 48
Georgia Tech 25
No Preference 27

Almost two thirds of Georgians who have a preference will be rooting for the Bulldogs on the gridiron Saturday, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. There are more folks who don't care than there are planning to root for Georgia Tech.

The survey also finds that younger fans are most supportive of Georgia while the Yellow Jackets get their highest level of support from those over 65, an indication that fanhood in the state will be even more fixated on the Bulldogs moving forward. Those under 30 root for Georgia by a 58-16 margin. The closest spread between the two schools is a 46-32 margin with senior citizens.

Although Democrats and Republicans each support Georgia by a wide margin, Republicans are more likely to care about the outcome of the football game. 32% of self identified Democrats say they don't care what happens in the game while only 22% of Republicans do.

This important research concludes Georgia week at PPP. The full results are here. Happy Thanksgiving!

The Quality of a Pollster's Questions

In an column published yesterday by the New York Times Ross Douthat aruges we shouldn’t take outlandish conclusions from polls seriously. He cites the recent Vanity Fair and 60 Minutes poll* showing that 24% of Americans don’t think Obama was born in the US. He writes that this number is misleading because many Americans are ignorant—they are unaware of law or geography, therefore the number does not encompass the majority of Americans’ beliefs.

While he may be correct on some of his assumptions, I think he misses the bigger picture. This isn’t about the public’s IQ or common sense. The fact that some Americans don’t believe Hawaii is a state is not only important for us to know (proof that we need more funding for our schools) but it is also a factor in shaping public opinion. Their opinion is just as valid as Douthat’s or mine and the ballot box certainly doesn’t discriminate between us. The voter who doesn’t know that Hawaii is a state may be more easily persuaded by Birthers that Obama isn’t lawfully the President than someone who does know that Hawaii is a state. While there may be some grain of truth in Douthat’s assumption that conspiracy theorists have high IQ and low common sense, it doesn’t mean that their followers do.

This isn’t about the public’s IQ or common sense it is about the pollster IQ and common sense. It is about asking smart questions that unfold many of the nuances in the American public perception. Douthat used our poll to prove his point and I am going to use it to prove mine.

The question in the Vanity Fair and 60 Minutes didn’t extract many facts and was poorly worded. It could have been confusing to someone who doesn’t know their geography. It asked one question forcing respondents to not only know that the President was born in Hawaii but that Hawaii is part of the United States. While that may seem fair—remember a year ago 6% of Americans didn’t know Hawaii was part of the US and 4% were unsure.

PPP however asked several simple questions that helped us discover why people may think Obama wasn’t born in the U.S. By asking more then one question and using crosstabs we were able to account for those who don’t know their geography, but still believe in the President was born in U.S. If a respondent didn’t believe Obama was born in the U.S. we then asked follow up questions, allowing us to gather more information and have better more accurate results.

Crosstabs can often tell us more about the public than the mere question. It is not simply the singular question that matters but the series of questions that counts in drawing conclusions. Broadly both polls had similar results: PPP found that 62% of Americans believe Obama was born in the U.S., 60 Minutes and Vanity Fair found 63% (ours was taken almost a year ago so our data is old). But when you look deeper into the results at crosstabs you’ll find differences.

By looking at our crosstabs PPP is able to tell that 14% of Americans, who don’t believe Obama was born in the US, don’t know Hawaii is part of the Union. 64% of those who don't think Hawaii is a state don’t believe Obama was born in the United States. Vanity Fair/60 Minutes’ poll assumed that people knew that Hawaii was in the US—many of those who answered Hawaii could have meant another country.

PPP’s poll asked respondents if they supported Obama. By looking at the crosstab of those who disapprove of Obama and are skeptical or don’t believe Obama lives in US, we are likely to discover the “Birther” group amongst us. A year ago 79% of those who are convinced he wasn’t born here and 67% of those who are unsure disapprove of Obama. While more questions would be needed to guarantee these voters believed this (like civics questions), I wouldn’t consider the others who don’t know where Obama was born “Birthers.”

CBS’s Brian Montopoli disagrees, he wrote that according to an ABC News/ Washington Post poll, one in three “Birthers” approve of the president’s job performance. He incorrectly defines “Birthers” as those who simply believe the president wasn’t born in the United States. As we have discovered through our polls some Americans don’t know geography or civics, they aren’t necessarily part of the “Birther” movement. The Birther movement is a group who believes the Obama is unlawfully President because he wasn’t born in the United States. In this case I agree with Douthat, this is using polling data to jump to outlandish conclusions.

While 60 Minutes speculates if it was the success of “right wing conspiracy” or the failure of our “academic instruction,” we at Public Policy Polling may be closer to having the answers.

A quality of a poll can often be found in the quality of the questions. We shouldn’t discount people’s opinions but polls that don't capture them well. Polling is about asking questions that everyone can answer. Polls are simply a form of data collecting. The respondent shouldn’t be forced to do the work, the pollster should.

(*The Vanity Fair/60 Minutes question was posted differently on their respective website pages, CBS does not typically publish all of their polling data. This analysis is based on the information that was available to the public.)

Elon: Third Edition

Here’s the data from the final installment of the Elon Poll.

Public Education in North Carolina

Right direction 42.0%
Wrong track 44.0%

How important is the immigration issue

Very important 65.3%
Somewhat important 27.6%
Not at all important 5.8%

Effect of Latino immigration

Good 23.1%
Bad 50.4%
No difference 14.0%

Agree with proposals that would allow undocumented immigrants to stay if they have job

Agree 34.2%
Disagree 62.6%

Corporal punishment in public schools

Support 54.5%
Oppose 40.2%

Raise the age for when you can be tried as an adult to 18

Support 37.0%
Oppose 47.1%

Appropriate punishment for first degree murder

Death penalty 48.3%
Life w/o parole 37.5%

Death penalty for first degree murder

Support 58.4%
Oppose 31.1%

Civitas Results!

I'm getting to these a day late, but Civitas put out its newest numbers yesterday.

In the Democratic race for Governor they have Bev Perdue leading Richard Moore 34-24. The ten point margin is about in line with most recent polling. They show a higher number of undecideds than we do because they poll likely general election voters, whereas we poll only likely primary voters when we do a poll on the primary.

On the Republican side they have Pat McCrory with 19%, Fred Smith with 14%, Bill Graham with 12%, and Bob Orr with 5%. This is also pretty much in line with our most recent poll in the race. It is not in line with last week's Survey USA poll that showed McCrory up 27-18. I think that the results Civitas and we are showing are probably the more accurate picture.

In the Republican primary for President they have John McCain at 32%, Mike Huckabee at 16%, Mitt Romney at 12%, Fred Thompson at 10%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Ron Paul at 4%. Both our poll and Survey USA's most recent poll showed Huckabee leading McCain by a point but I think these numbers are completely conceivable after South Carolina. McCain gained some momentum in the state and it's hard to see how Mike Huckabee is going to be able to cobble anything together to let him win the nomination.

On the Democratic side they have Barack Obama at 29%, Hillary Clinton at 28%, and John Edwards at 22%. Seems about right.

The most interesting question in their poll to me was this one:

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE DECISION BY THE NORTH CAROLINA COMMUNITY COLLEGE SYSTEM TO REQUIRE LOCAL COMMUNITY COLLEGES TO ADMIT 18 YEAR OLD ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND CHARGE THEM OUT-OF-STATE TUITION RATES?

We probably would have worded that a little differently...something like 'Do you think the children of illegal immigrants, who have attended North Carolina's public schools, should be able to attend the state's Community Colleges?'

Nonetheless 39% said they agreed with the decision and only 50% said they disagreed. I would have expected the results, especially with that verbiage, to be much more against the Community College system's decision. Wish I'd asked a question about this on our general election match ups poll earlier this week. Maybe next time.

Anyway the Civitas poll is always interesting. Check out the full results here.

School Board Polling

We've known since the beginning of September that the endorsees of the Wake Community Schools Alliance were probably going to sweep the school board election.

A survey we conducted then found that 61% of voters in District 1 were opposed to the district's diversity policy, that 63% in District 2 were, that 57% in District 7 were, and that 63% in District 9 were. Those numbers all match up more or less with the results last night.

Concerns over the policy were enough to get voters to cross party lines. 40% of people we had identified as likely voters for yesterday were Democrats while only 34% were Republicans. But that same group of voters said by a 43-32 margin that it preferred to vote for GOP Board of Education candidates this year.

Overall 61% of voters opposed the policy with only 29% in support of it in that early September poll. Perhaps most telling 46% of African Americans were opposed to it with only 39% supportive. And even Democrats overall were only narrowly supportive, 49/39, while Republicans were opposed 82/9 and independents were 66/25.

Last week we polled the horse race in each of the four districts. We showed all of the WCSA endorsees winning, but not by the sorts of margins they ended up getting last night. That's because our polling was focused on people who had voted in at least one off year election since 2003. The landslide nature of the victories is an indication that many people who had never voted in a school board election before came out yesterday, and that they were all there to vote for WCSA candidates.

Cathy Truitt's decision to run to the left of John Tedesco in the runoff is an interesting one because our poll found that 68% of her supporters are opposed to the district's diversity policy while only 11% favor it. She may risk losing many of the voters she had yesterday by reaching out to the supporters of Horace Tart, although I guess there's a reasonable school of thought that she has no chance to win without drawing clear differences between herself and Tedesco.

Interestingly even Tart's supporters only said they were in favor of the existing Wake policy by a 44-34 margin.

For all the money spent and hard campaigning of the last month these races were effectively decided a long time ago. Rarely is an election so fixated on one issue that voters are so passionate about, and when that is the case the candidates who are on the side of the majority of the public end up winning. Not a lot of minds were being changed one way or the other about the current policy.

More on the OLF

Tom Jensen at the NC Sierra Club blog had this to say about our latest poll, specifically about the OLF:

A poll released today by Raleigh's Public Policy Polling shows that North Carolinians are strongly opposed to the proposed OLF in Washington County with 47% opposed to the plans and only 32% supportive.

These numbers came without any explanation to respondents about the potential negative implications of the site, including disastrous impact on wildlife and the quality of life for local residents. It's a good bet that the 21% of folks who didn't have an opinion would be strongly opposed if they knew all the facts.

I've been bugging Justin Guillory over at PPP for a long time about doing a poll sometime and breaking it down by whether those who respond are Carolina, State, Duke, or Wake people and he finally did it for this one.

Apparently there's at least one thing that fans of all ACC schools can agree on- they think the proposed OLF location is wrong for North Carolina. Partisans of the ACC quartet, as well as North Carolinians who identify with a different school, are all opposed to the current plans by margins ranging from 13 to 17 points.

I have to agree with Tom that our OLF question was very limited. We did not give any arguments for or against the project. It was almost a test to see if people knew enough about it with little prompting to have opinion. If we had made the arguments or explained who has come out for and against the site, the results probably would have been even more anti-OLF.

Laying the blame

County-wide transfer tax referenda went down in flames all over the state yesterday. See some of the reaction here and here. To start, I agree with synopsis posts by Gary Pearce and Bob Geary.

Bob points out that people don't like to vote for taxes, especially if its unclear what the taxes are used for. I wholeheartedly agree. If a vote for the transfer tax were directly related to more money for schools then they would have been more successful.

Gary points out that better campaigns win. I agree with this as well. The county commissioners in each of the 16 counties that held transfer tax referenda did a terrible job selling it. I didn't see any evidence of organized pro-transfer tax campaigns anywhere. The anti-transfer tax people were definitely organized.

So is the transfer tax option doomed to fail everywhere else? Wake County Commissioner Tony Gurley said in the N&O this morning that he is wary of putting it up for a vote next year. I don't think the transfer tax is doomed to fail. It just needs to be repackaged and sold better.

PPP has done a lot of polling on this issue and here is what we have learned:

First, the transfer tax is more popular if it is explicit that the money goes exclusive to education.

Second, and most importantly, the transfer tax is more popular if voters understand that it is an alternative to property tax increases. County commissioners need to explain to the voters that if they don't raise the transfer tax , then property taxes will have to be raised. Someone has to pay for growth and the increasing costs of infrastructure. The transfer tax will be more successful if it is sold as a fairer way to pay for growth.

Politics of the Superintendent Battle

In ruling that June Atkinson has the authority to run the state's schools, Judge Robert Hobgood said it would take a constitutional amendment to let the Governor decides who's in charge.

Good luck with that.

It would be a challenge just to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot since it would require at least some support from Republican legislators who don't have any incentive to give Bev Perdue more power. But the even more uphill battle would come once it got on the ballot. When we asked voters around the state in February whether low profile Council of State positions like Superintendent and the Commissioner of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor should be elected or appointed 65% supported keeping them as elected positions with just 22% saying they should be appointed.

That inherent opposition from voters means it would take a well funded campaign to change their minds and convince them to give up some of their power as citizens. It's hard to imagine anyone cares enough about this issue to put up the money for a thorough and well organized effort.

So a constitutional amendment more than likely isn't going to happen. Perdue can keep fighting it through the court system. But with her approval numbers what they are already, does she really want to be seen as spending her energy and political capital on an intergovernmental turf battle?

Another poll shows NC supports smoking ban

The N&O reported today on a poll released by the Tobacco Prevention and Evaluation Program at UNC-CH. Here are some nuggets:

• "Of adults surveyed, 67.6 percent support a statewide law to eliminate smoking in all public enclosed areas"
• "Of nonsmokers, 94 percent support tobacco-free policies in all schools. Among smokers, support was 78.4 percent"
• "the UNC Survey Research Unit conducted telephone surveys with a random statewide sample of 251 North Carolina adults and a random sample of 277 adults in Johnston County. The results of the two surveys were weighted to be representative of North Carolina adults"

Complete results of the survey can be found here (PDF).

Civitas in Charlotte

The Civitas Institute did a special Charlotte area poll this month. They say the full results will be up on the web Monday, but you can see some of the results now at their blog, Red Clay Citizen.

Chris Hayes in his post touched on the anti-tax sentiment in the poll, but how voters are still supporting the transit tax. See the questions below.

Do you think taxes in Mecklenburg County are:
Much too high - 39%
Somewhat too high - 31%
Just about right - 25%
Somewhat too low - 2%
Much too low - 1%

In 1999, voters in Mecklenburg County approved a 1/2 cent sales tax increase to support a light rail system and mass transit. Will you vote to repeal the 1/2 cent mass transit tax?
Yes - 39%
No - 54%
Not Sure - 7%

Would you support a real estate transfer tax in Mecklenburg County?
Yes - 16%
No - 66%
Not sure - 18%

These questions and results support the pattern on tax questions that I have been repeating for months. If you ask people “do you want this tax increase” (see the third question above) they will say NO. People do not like taxes (see first question)! Yet, if you explain what the tax increase is for, they are willing to support it for schools and education, and to a lesser extent transportation, and maybe a few other things.

So people don’t mind (as much) more taxes if its going to pay something they support. That’s why the transit tax is going to survive.