| Month | Bill Graham’s margin on Fred Smith |
| January | +15 |
| February | +16 |
| March | +15 |
| April | +11 |
| May | +12 |
| June | +6 |
| July | +14 |
| August | +12 |
| September | +14 |
| October | +2 |
| November | -8 |
| December | -8 |
The chart kind of speaks for itself. With the exception of June Bill Graham led Fred Smith by 11-16 points in each of our monthly tracking polls from January to September. Smith cut 12 points off the lead from September to October and then another 10 points from October to November.
What to chalk it up to? I think in this case it's good old fashioned retail politics. Fred Smith's rise in the polls coincides almost exactly with the launch of his Statewide BBQ tour. He had 21 events across the state in August and September, then 23 during October alone. It's not like hundreds of people are turning out to these things but it's generating a lot of good small town press coverage and ingratiating him to party activists. During that time Bill Graham has done...well...not much unless I'm missing something. Smith really seems to be out working Graham and it's being reflected in the polls.
Maybe Graham will win by pouring millions of dollars of his personal fortune into tv advertising come spring time, but right now I'd say he's in a lot of trouble.
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