Monday, January 7, 2008

Breaking down the crosstabs in Ohio

Conventional wisdom has been that John Edwards is the most electable of the Democratic frontrunners because he's more likely to earn crossover support from Republican voters, but that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are actually the most popular figures with the folks in their own party.

In Ohio though, Edwards emerged as the strongest candidate among Democratic voters, earning the support of a higher percentage of voters from his own party than both Clinton and Obama in every possible matchup:


Giuliani

Huckabee

McCain

Romney

Edwards

81

82

80

84

Clinton

77

78

76

80

Obama

70

68

67

67


The Democratic candidate in Ohio with the highest level of crossover support from Republicans also defied the conventional wisdom. It is not Edwards, but rather Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton, not surprisingly, gets little support across party lines:


Giuliani

Huckabee

McCain

Romney

Obama

23

17

16

18

Edwards

19

16

15

19

Clinton

11

9

9

10


So Obama does the weakest with the Democrats and the best with the Republicans- not exactly what you would expect with the first really viable African American presidential candidate. It's a good sign for the Democrats if he's the nominee though because most of the Democrats currently saying they're undecided will likely come home in November.

On the Republican side, Huckabee does the best job of keeping folks in the party on his side, while McCain does the best among Democrats. No surprises there.

Full results here.

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