Civitas Polls

Our friends at Civitas have released their latest numbers for Governor, Senate, and President.

The Presidential numbers are pretty darn good for Barack Obama. He's trailing 44-39, but that's the best he's done of the three times Civitas has polled his match up with McCain- he trailed by nine and ten points in the previous two polls.

Beyond that, 20% of Democrats are undecided compared to just 12% of Republicans. I'm guessing that's a product of a lot of Hillary supporters who will eventually support Obama but aren't there yet. Assume that 80% of the undecided Dems go for Obama and 80% of the undecided Reps go for McCain, and you end up with McCain up about one point.

As I've said repeatedly, I don't know that Obama will win North Carolina, but I think it's going to be the most competitive it's been here at least since 1996 and possibly since 1992.

The Senate poll shows Elizabeth Dole with 45% and Kay Hagan with 43%, just another piece of confirmation that this race is tighter than anyone expected at this point. Hagan's actually leading by twelve points with unaffiliated voters for her, but 23% of Democratic votes are leeching to Dole. If Hagan can get those folks back in the fold it's going to be very interesting.

For Governor they have Bev Perdue up 43-42 on Pat McCrory. Seems about right to me.