John McCain 49
Barack Obama 42
John McCain 46
Hillary Clinton 38
When PPP last polled North Carolina general election matches in February, Obama and Clinton were both just five points behind McCain. Now, despite the two candidates having spent an enormous amount of resources in the state over the last few months, they're doing worse. The culprit? Democratic disunity.
While John McCain pulls 83-84% of the Republican vote against both Clinton and Obama, neither of the Democrats are polling over 70% with members of their own party. Obama leads 68-25 with Democrats, Clinton leads 61-17.
There is particularly strong evidence in the poll that supporters of Obama are not sure right now whether they would vote for Clinton if she somehow became the party's nominee. She leads just 42-17 among black voters, with a remarkable 42% undecided. Obama, on the other hand, has an 80-13 lead with them.
Whether the Democratic nominee ends up having any chance in North Carolina this fall will have a lot to do with how well they are able to bring in Democrats who supported the ultimately unsuccessful candidate for President.
Full results here.
Polls which continue to assume Clinton as a contestant are probably not able to accurately guage Obama's strength with her gone. The issue is not which Democrat does better but who wins in a McCain-Obama contest.
ReplyDeleteAre you not going to release your Gov and Lt. Gov results...I'm pretty sure I got an automated call that included those races. I figured it was from PPP. Maybe I was wrong?
ReplyDeleteYes, it probably was us. We are releasing the state level numbers tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteIn your Presidential analysis, what are your assumptions as to turnout from Democrats, Independents and Republicans?