| State | Final Real Clear Politics Average | Actual tally | Closest Poll |
| | Obama +12 | Obama +28 | Obama + 20 (PPP) |
| | Obama +18 | Obama +29 | Obama +22 (Survey |
| | Obama +18 | Obama +36 | Obama +22 (Strategic Vision) |
In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.
Things are going much worse for Obama right now than they were when any of those three states voted but North Carolina is relatively similar demographically to them- a large black population, plenty of college educated liberals, etc. It will be interesting to see if Obama manages to outperform the polls in our corner of the South once again.
In those early primaries, I think a lot of the pollsters underestimated the power of Obama's ground game. That ground game, furthermore, was unchallenged by Clinton's team (even in Virginia, though she was starting to catch on by then).
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, I think Clinton was focused on other states back then, and now she knows to try to contest every state.
And as you mentioned, Obama has been taking a beating in the press.
So for those reasons, I think the pollsters, and the polls, will be closer this time around. I'm still hoping to see Obama beat expectations.
Won't happen.
ReplyDeleteAs of tomorrow, May 5th, the Clinton's will have made 71 campaign stops in NC to Obama's 12.
ReplyDeleteObama will not outperform polls in NC.
71 stops versus 12 should tell you something shouldn't it?
ReplyDeleteYep, that Obama has already won NC and the Primary Season and knows that.
ReplyDelete