Republican Tracking Poll: Governor

Pat McCrory 39
Fred Smith 35
Bill Graham 6
Bob Orr 5
Elbie Powers 1

The Republican contest for Governor is close, and likely to come down to who can turn out their supporters.

The conventional wisdom is that Smith's supporters are more passionate and committed than McCrory's. There is some evidence of that in our poll- Smith leads 48-38 among those voters who said they voted early.

McCrory doesn't really have a grassroots operation compared to Smith and has stayed ahead in the polls through a strong media campaign. Those voters' support is more casual and McCrory's success or failure will depend on whether those people get out and vote or not.

My guess is that the lower turnout is, the more likely Smith is to pull off the upset. Smith continues to lead every part of the state except for the metro Charlotte area. Pat McCrory will certainly be praying for a sunny day in the central Piedmont.

This poll is further confirmation that there is pretty much no chance of a runoff on the Republican side.

Full results here.