Obama and Independents

I'm trying to make heads or tails of who's winning 'independent' voters in this election. When a poll comes out showing John McCain doing well with those folks, the theory is expounded that Republicans disenchanted with their party are not identifying themselves as such anymore but still supporting McCain while calling themselves independents. When Barack Obama is doing well it's because he's bringing a new kind of leadership to the table that appeals to those who don't like two party politics.

So one important question, when trying to assess who's winning the independents, is who the independents this year really are. Is it the same folks who were independents in 2000 and 2004, or is it a different group of people with different values who've been pushed into that category by events over the last four years?

I don't know the answer to that question, but I am pretty sure it's not a homogeneous group, as much as the media sometimes makes it out to be.

As shown in the table below, Obama has been winning those voters in six of our last eight polls. There aren't any real trends in these numbers that jump out to me as explaining who the independents this year are and who they're supporting. With the exception of North Carolina, Obama's winning the independent voters in the states where he's winning overall and losing them in the states where he's trailing. Is there anything in here that captures the attention of you readers?

State	D	R	I	Independents
Virginia	36	36	28	Obama 42-38
Ohio	46	33	21	Obama 42-37
South Carolina	39	43	18	McCain 38-32
Colorado	40	36	24	Obama 50-30
Missouri	39	34	28	McCain 46-38
Florida	42	42	15	Obama 45-33
North Carolina	49	36	15	Obama 43-31
Michigan	38	31	30	Obama 40-37