Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Party ID and North Carolina Polls

Company

Party ID Breakdown

McCain Lead

Survey USA May

D+16

8

PPP June

D+14

5

PPP July

D+13

4

Civitas June

D+12

4

Civitas July

D+11

3

Survey USA July

D+8

5
This chart shows what the Democratic party id advantage was for each of the last two polls from Civitas, Survey USA, and PPP in North Carolina.

As you can see, the poll that showed the greatest party id advantage for Democrats also showed the greatest lead for John McCain. Granted that was while Hillary was still in the race, but it's still curious.

Throw that one out though and you have a six point spread in party ID advantage over the various polls but only a two point spread in McCain's lead. Is the party breakdown of polls less of an explanatory variable this year than it usually is? We'll certainly see some sign of that when you compare the Virginia poll we're releasing tomorrow with the one we conducted last month.
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 22, 2008 at 3:38 PM

    Don't tease us Tom...what does the VA poll show. Give us a hint...

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJuly 22, 2008 at 6:16 PM

    Yeah, that VA tease is not fair to your loyal readers!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tom JensenJuly 22, 2008 at 8:00 PM

    Ok loyal readers, what I was referring to is that we found a very different party id breakdown in our VA poll this month compared to June, but virtually identical numbers for the horse race. Just not the sort of thing you would expect normally.

    Check back between 10 and 11 AM tomorrow for the official numbers.

    ReplyDelete