If blacks don't turn out at a higher rate relative to the rest of the population than they did in 2004, Obama has no chance. On the other hand, if they vote at a higher rate than the white population and push the black composition of the electorate up over 22% this year, Obama could even be favored in North Carolina.
Using our latest poll, here's how the contest in North Carolina would look weighting the African American vote to be anywhere from 18 to 23%:
| Black % of Electorate | McCain | Obama |
| 18 | 48 | 43 |
| 19 | 47 | 44 |
| 20 | 47 | 44 |
| 21 | 46 | 45 |
| 22 | 46 | 45 |
| 23 | 45 | 46 |
I think NC will have a recount and will be too close to call all the election night.
ReplyDeleteThe tipping point for Obama will be a higher turnout of African-American voters, a higher percentage of White and Latino voters and the wild card no one is paying much attention to...a much higher number of young voters.
ReplyDeleteIf it's not this year, in 4 years NC will be definitively a real swing state like Virginia this year.
ReplyDeleteEvery year Democrats try to increase black turnout claiming it will swing the election.
ReplyDeleteI'll believe it when I see it.
North Carolina has the best education sytem in the South.
ReplyDeleteMore and more educated voters are rejecting McCain and recognizing the intellect of Obama.
The younger voters may turn this if they get out and vote.