Barack Obama 51
John McCain 44
Sarah Palin's popularity with Colorado voters over the last couple weeks has plummeted, and as it has Barack Obama has opened up his biggest lead yet in a PPP survey of the state.
Immediately after the Republican convention 41% of Coloradoans said John McCain's choice of Palin to join him on the ticket made them more likely to vote for him while 38% said it made them less likely to do so. Now the number of people saying Palin's selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain has climbed to 47% with the number of people viewing it favorably dropping to 38%.
The movement over the last couple weeks has been particularly acute with independent voters. 56% of them say that the Palin choice makes them less likely to support McCain and what was a 49-38 lead for Obama with that group is now a 58-31 advantage.
Obama's margin with Hispanics is pretty steady since the previous poll, but he has improved from a six point deficit to a one point lead with white voters.
Full results here.
270 electoral votes, here we come!
ReplyDeleteYes we can! ¡Sí se puede!
Great news. If Obama can hold the Kerry states plus IA, NM and CO, he wins regardless of what happens in FL, OH and VA. For that reason Colorado is one of the most important states in this election.
ReplyDeleteNow it's time to poll NH Tom!
ReplyDeletethis poll is very good news for obama. if these numbers are true, and it holds, mccain is in a lot of trouble. I think this poll was being very modest with the african american vote (86-14). come on. lets be serious. bush got like 8 percent of african americans 4 years ago and this poll is sayin that mccain is gonna do better than bush? I don't believe it. I say obama wins over 90% of the african american vote in every state.
ReplyDeletePlease, poll NH. We have few polls in NH. It's only 4 evs but it's important.
ReplyDeleteIf the numbers were close I would still be skeptical - but that lead is surprisingly substantial. I'm very excited by the Udall lead as well.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I have underestimated my fellow Coloradans, but I am extremely surprised and heartened. (And as a former resident of NH, I agree someone should poll there...)
This confirms my (until now) anecdotal impression that Coloradoans really do not like the Palin pick.
ReplyDeleteI've always thought that statewide elections here hinge on whether independent voters think the Republican candidate is closer to the evangelicals in Colorado Springs or the Democratic candidate is closer to the flaky Boulder liberals. By picking Palin, McCain may have shot himself in the foot in this regard.
LOL
ReplyDeleteRegarding the African American vote: note that they only constitute 3% of the respondents, which comes out to about 30 people, so obviously the margin of error on that is going to be huge.
ReplyDeleteLol right back at you brandon. How about these lols as well: Insider Advantage CO poll this week 51 Obama 41 McCain. Or this lol Quin CO poll out today 49 Obama 45 Mccain. Lol indeed.
ReplyDeleteSuch great news! Encourage everyone to vote by mail. the state is encouraging folks to vote by mail-in ballots for Nov. election. Due to this year's # of registered voters X avg. minutes it takes to fill out avg. ballot X this year’s long Colorado ballot / # of polling places = not all Coloradoans will get to vote! Please spread the word!
ReplyDeleteA request for a mail-in ballot is at:
http://www.elections.colorado.gov/WWW/default/Clerks%20Corner/SOS%20Approved%20Forms/2008_forms/approved_mail-in_ballot_form_17_mail-in_ballot_application_english_color_07.02.08.pdf
Address of County & Clerk’s address to mail your form: http://www.elections.colorado.gov/DDefault.aspx?tid=147
To see if you are registered at your current address, and if you are on the permanent mail-in ballot list, go to http://www.sos.state.co.us/Voter/voterHome.do;jsessionid=0000QlBp7qrdd1E9ysKzDFyDdlc:121vl9gps
Great news Colorado...I'm in Virginia, and I'm working my ass off for Obama...it would be awesome if VA and CO put Obama in the Whitehouse!!!!
ReplyDeleteRepublican Folks,
ReplyDeleteOk, let us accept that Obama is leading now. But Election is on Nov 4th. We can do so much in between this time. If you are not a volunteer, get into the action.
Please dont waste your time in naming people in this forum. It is a waste of time. Let them keep talking about Sarah palin. On Sunday, she got 30,000 crowd in florida. Yesterday in Media, PA, she got a crowd of 15,000 to 20,000 I am sure, that crowd means nothing for liberals. Remember the Elon poll and how fast it was discredited by this forum? If it fits them, they are going to go gaga. That is the nature of polls. Tom has made it very clear that, these polls are meant to support democratic candidates. We just need to use some of the results in this poll, for our advantage.
Colorado looks like it could be the winner for Obama, but one additional Bush state could make it certain.
ReplyDeleteI phone and canvas colorado unafiliated voters every day. Some of the strongest Obama Independents seem to be women who don't like Palin. When I ask why, I get a stream of emotional responses, especially it seems young moms, there's something going on here.
ReplyDeleteTom, what was the breakdown in your sample between Dems and Dem-leaners and Repubs and Repub-leaners. It would be helpful to know this to assess the accuracy of this poll. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteAs a registered independent Colorado voter, I am opting to vote early by mail ballot (which I will, instead, personal drop off). The only people I know of who are excited by McCain's choice of Palin as VP are the right-wing theocrats in Colorado Springs. She speaks directly to that extremely vocal evangelical community. Everyone else I know or with whom I have spoken (who self identifies as a republican) thinks she is woefully inadequate for the task and has injured McCain's ticket. Palin was supposed to speak today in Centennial where Colorado Women Against Palin (CoWAP) was planning to protest her appearance, but she canceled. I am wondering if she could not woo enough $25,000 VIP donors to make the stop worthwhile?
ReplyDeletePalin is having the opposite effect on women, and especially moms, than McCain was hoping for. McCain figured hordes of women would go scrambling to the GOP simply because he chose a running mate with two X chromosomes like them. Little did he know women have these things in their heads called brains.
ReplyDeleteMy own mother is scared $#!&less by the Palin pick. How can she be qualified to run the whole country, she wonders, if she has proven incapable of managing her own family responsibly?
Palin was the ultimate Hail Mary move, and fortunately for our nation it is one that is failing miserably.
This election is not over folks. The election is on Nov. 4th. All those Obama supporters out there need to continue to do the hard work of registering voters, knocking on people's doors, donate, etc.,. Keep it up for just six more weeks and Obama will win. Keep at, your hard work is showing in these polls.
ReplyDeleteThis is an interesting election, and could yet redraw the map. Obama could lose Ohio, Florida and yes, even Pennsylvania and still win the election, if he cobbles together a collection of smaller states - New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada. That brings him to 270. This looks totally likely right now. It's the same strategy he used successfully against Clinton. Rack up wins in a bunch of smaller states to make up for her wins in the big states.
ReplyDeleteAnother Virginian here working hard to turn Virginia blue.
ReplyDeleteIt's heartening to read this behind the scenes stuff; gets me cranked up for tomorrow, lets me sleep better at night.
We're doing something right here, Colorado and others, and it feels real good.
Tom do you have a breakout by region in the state? In particular, I'm thinking of four regions in particular: El Paso county (Colorado Springs), Denver, Boulder, and then the Denver suburbs (Arapahoe and Jefferson counties).
ReplyDeletenice.loved it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
ReplyDeleteRegarding the African American vote: note that they only constitute 3% of the respondents, which comes out to about 30 people, so obviously the margin of error on that is going to be huge.
ReplyDelete03170
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