A PPP analysis of poll results this week in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina show that most of those things have happened, compared to our previous polls of those states, but the shifts are relatively small.
First the horse race shifts:
| State (release date of previous poll) | | | | |
| Horse Race this week | Obama +1 | McCain +5 | Obama +1 | McCain +4 |
| Horse Race in previous poll | Obama +4 | McCain +3 | Obama +3 | McCain +3 |
| Change | R+3 | R+2 | R+2 | R+1 |
McCain has made gains in all four states we polled this week, but it's an average of just two points and the leader has remained the same in each of them.
Now party identification:
| State (release date of previous poll) | | | | |
| Party ID this week | R+1 | R+2 | D+6 | D+13 |
| Party ID in previous poll | R+1 | D+3 | D+3 | D+15 |
| Change | No Difference | R+5 | D+3 | R+2 |
There's been an average movement of one point toward the Republicans in the party identification spread for these states. It's hard to tell why there has been an increase in Michigan, although it could be a product of embarrassed Democrats happy that the Kwame Kilpatrick situation has finally been resolved.
White women:
| State (release date of previous poll) | | | | |
| White women this week | Obama +2 | McCain +25 | McCain +11 | McCain +20 |
| White women in previous poll | Obama +2 | McCain +25 | McCain +7 | McCain +25 |
| Change | No Difference | No Difference | R+4 | D+5 |
This is really a wash. Key to note in the southern states of North Carolina and Florida is that Obama is faring much better with white Democratic women now than he was before the party convention. In Florida he led 63-23 with them before the convention, now it's 77-19. In North Carolina it was 59-27 before the convention, now it's 70-21. Hillary supporters may be returning back to the Democratic fold in those places.
And finally independents:
| State (release date of previous poll) | | | | |
| Independents this week | Obama +11 | Tied | Tied | McCain +1 |
| Independents in previous poll | Obama +15 | Tied | Obama +4 | Tied |
| Change | R +4 | No Difference | R+4 | R+1 |
An average Republican gain of two points.
The bottom line: McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate has certainly done him some good, but it doesn't appear to be a move that fundamentally alters the state of the election. We'll continue to follow these indicators in the next few weeks to see if they stick or wear off in key states.
Tom, Gallup released a statement with today's daily tracker results. In it Gallup says the Republican National Convention produced a +5 Republican partisan id shift, yet the state by state polls you have done show only a one point shift. Is it possible that the shift Gallup is finding is based primarily in already hardcore red states (Utah, Wy, etc.,) and thus you may be missing it by looking at your polls of the battleground states? I'm just curious if there is any real theory out there about dramatic and sizeable shifts in party id because of a party's convention. Has anyone seen such a thing before? If so, are the changes permanent (at least until election day) or are they more likely to be transitory?
ReplyDeleteYour results and analysis jive with what I am reading across the polling spectrum.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder Obama backers are worried.
mike's america apparently you did not read tom's post closely enough. he said McCain achieved minimal gains after the conventions. I'd hardly call a +1 partisan id swing something to be "worried about" or any of the other demographics tom posted about.
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