Tuesday, September 2, 2008

NC 8: Good news for Obama and Hagan, not for Perdue

Barack Obama 43
John McCain 43
Bob Barr 5

In 2004 George W. Bush beat John Kerry 55-44 in this district, so Barack Obama keeping it tied at this point is just another indication of North Carolina's virtual swing state status this year. The folks undecided for President right now are a Democratic leaning bunch- they support Kay Hagan, Bev Perdue, and Larry Kissell. Evidently they have some doubts about Obama but given their overall voting preferences it would seem he has a leg up.

Kay Hagan 45
Elizabeth Dole 41
Christopher Cole 3

Just more evidence of how this race has been fundamentally altered over the last month. Dole won the district 51-48 in 2002. Hagan is getting almost as much Republican support (15%) as Dole is Democratic support (17%). Given the state's overall Democratic lean Hagan would coast to victory if that held up statewide.

Pat McCrory 43
Bev Perdue 40
Michael Munger 4

Not good news for the Democratic candidate, though not necessarily surprising news either given that a lot of this district is her opponent's home turf. The last time the Governor's seat was open Mike Easley beat Richard Vinroot 53-44 in this district. McCrory is getting 21% of the Democratic vote in this district that includes a lot of territory in the Charlotte media market. Perdue will improve her standing if she can pick up most of the support of the 20% of black voters who are currently undecided.

Full results here.
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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2008 at 12:12 PM

    Excuse me?

    Obama's only winning 68% of Democrats (compared to McCain's 83% of Republicans) in a Republican district where McCain still wins independents, and yet magically McCain and Obama are running even?!

    Please explain.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2008 at 12:33 PM

    Anonymous:
    NC has a large Democratic registration advantage. I think that the SOS office has it at D-46, R-33%.

    Of course, many of those Democrats are traditional Zell Miller-style 'Democrats' in name only, hence why NC is usually a Republican state on the national level.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tom JensenSeptember 2, 2008 at 12:34 PM

    There is and always has been a major party identification advantage for Democrats in the 8th District- a lot of them just don't actually vote Democratic particularly for federal offices even though they personally identify with the party. Look at the demographics on the poll.

    ReplyDelete
  4. ng2000September 13, 2008 at 8:59 PM

    Another resource for you: http://www.ng2000.com/fw.php?tp=obama

    ReplyDelete