Close Race in Florida

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 47

Florida has tightened up a little since PPP's last poll of the state, with what was a 49-46 lead for Obama now 48-47.

There has been some movement in John McCain's direction with both white voters and Hispanics over the last three weeks. McCain's margin has increased five points with whites, from 52-41 to 55-39. Hispanic voters, who have swung back and forth both in PPP's polls and those of most organizations conducting surveys in Florida, are supporting McCain 50-46 after going for Obama by the exact same margin in our previous poll.

Two of the major factors that could determine who wins the state are:

1) The proportion of the electorate that ends up being white voters relative to the proportion who end up being black voters. We are projecting white voters at 69-70% and blacks at 13-14% and right now McCain's solid support with whites and Obama's overwhelmingly strong standing with blacks are basically canceling each other out. But if the final turnout figures end up skewing either more or less African American, depending on the success of Obama's turnout operation, that will have a major impact on the race whichever way it goes.

2) Because the white and black votes are practically a combined wash right now, Hispanic voters have the power to tip the election one way or another in these closing weeks. Most polling has shown the race extremely close with that demographic. If their votes tip strongly to either McCain or Obama in the closing, the person that benefits will win the state.

I think those are the main two things to watch in the final weeks in Florida.

Both candidates are having more trouble winning over their party's voters in Florida than they are in most places. Obama gets just 80% of Democrats while McCain is earning only 82% of Republican voters. Independents are going heavily for Obama, 52-35.

McCain is up 49-47 with folks who voted in 2004 while Obama has a 64-26 lead with new voters.

Full results here.