Friday, October 24, 2008

Friday Night Special: Obama leads in Ohio

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 44

Barack Obama is up by seven points in Ohio, a result almost identical to a PPP poll conducted in early October that showed the Democratic nominee leading by six points in the state.

There haven't been any major shifts in the numbers since that time. Obama is doing well for the following reasons:

-A 48-36 lead with independents.

-Strong party unity. Ohio was one state where a Puma effect really did show itself over the summer. But now Obama is winning by almost the same margin with Democrats- 86-10- as McCain is with Republicans- 87-11.

-Obama is keeping it competitive with white voters. McCain only has a 49-46 lead with them, and given the state's 12% black population and their almost unanimous support for Obama, he really needs to be up at least ten with whites to take the state.

-60% of voters in the state list the economy as their top issue, and Obama has a 63-33 lead with them, giving him an 18 point lead in the grand scheme of the poll based on those respondents. McCain leads by 11 with folks who list anything else as their top issue.

-Obama leads 55-24 with folks who didn't vote in 2004.

Full results here
at

8 comments:

  1. SreenuOctober 24, 2008 at 8:17 PM

    Nice poll....Really happy to know Obama is doing better among whites and rural voters.

    When is VA poll coming out?
    Any teasers regarding it?

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousOctober 24, 2008 at 8:26 PM

    PPP

    you guys rock

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 24, 2008 at 8:27 PM

    do more polls

    10 days to go !!

    ReplyDelete
  4. ValdiviaOctober 24, 2008 at 8:32 PM

    yes another NC poll because the Rass poll seemed totally off with independents.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SreenuOctober 24, 2008 at 8:38 PM

    @lat, I think PPP will have an NC poll every Monday till the election..which means we will get 2 more NC polls....also as Tom mentioned earlier this week they are doing several WC and EC states due out within the last 3-4 days before the election.

    ReplyDelete
  6. ValdiviaOctober 24, 2008 at 8:45 PM

    thanks sreenu. good to know. I am also looking forward to the Georgia poll.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SreenuOctober 24, 2008 at 8:58 PM

    @lat, you will have to wait till either next Friday or the Monday before the election for the GA poll :-)

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousOctober 26, 2008 at 11:19 AM

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    *
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    http://bailoutmovie.blogspot.com/
    *
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    Are you a Partisan?

    Should they give their view......? If any party did not give their views, send it to their supporter to question them....

    ReplyDelete