Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Palin in Ohio

We'll get our new Ohio poll out in a few hours, but for now here's the before and after on Sarah Palin's standing in the state:

Date

Palin Favorability

Horse Race

9/14

43/36

McCain +4

10/5

40/43

?

Palin's popularity hasn't dropped quite as much here as it had in some other states, perhaps an indication that she made a small recovery with the debate. The trend nevertheless remains the same.
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10 comments:

  1. p smithOctober 7, 2008 at 11:26 AM

    That would suggest that Obama is not up by much which would differ from your hint over the weekend.

    Or maybe you're just teasing us and Obama is up by 8.

    My view is that the Palin factor is not the reason for Obama's rise, it's the economy. The Palin fade just happens to have coincided almost exactly with the economic crisis.

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  2. p smithOctober 7, 2008 at 11:26 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. AnonymousOctober 7, 2008 at 11:27 AM

    Awesome. Thanks for the teaser. It looks like Obama by 3? Maybe four? I guess that would put you in line with what the others (aside from Rasmussen) You guys are doing a great job.

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  4. AnonymousOctober 7, 2008 at 12:19 PM

    I agree with p smith, Obama's rise is in no way attributable to or linked with Palin's fall. It has been, and will remain to be about the economy stupid. Perhaps Tom can put out a teaser about the trend lines in voters in Ohio that cited the economy as the number 1 issue.

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  5. andgardenOctober 7, 2008 at 12:21 PM

    Anonymous is obviously right. It's the economy, not Plain.

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  6. Tom JensenOctober 7, 2008 at 12:28 PM

    I think if you read our press releases we are very clearly talking about the economy but I don't have recent trendlines on the issue question for most states we're polling in so this is what we use for the teasers.

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  7. sdfOctober 7, 2008 at 12:47 PM

    I'm also going to guess O+3.

    (I also think that while p. smith is probably right, it is difficult to tease out precisely what leads to changing poll numbers.)

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  8. AnonymousOctober 7, 2008 at 12:59 PM

    Regardless of the reason for Obama's rise, there is still a correlation between her favorability numbers and Obama's support. I'm guessing Ohio is tied right now.

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  9. AnonymousOctober 7, 2008 at 12:59 PM

    Obama +3 or +4 sounds about right.

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  10. AnonymousOctober 7, 2008 at 1:06 PM

    I'm thinking Obama +4, which is smack dab in the middle between Ras' +1 McCain and Quin's +8 Obama.

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