Monday, November 3, 2008

Florida Results

Barack Obama 50
John McCain 48

Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.

Obama's lead in the state comes on the strength of a 57-36 lead with independent voters and a 55-42 advantage with Hispanics. He's also got his customary strong support from black (93-6) and young (63-34) voters.

He is not particularly competitive with the white vote, where McCain has a 57-41 lead, but his strong minority support looks like it might be enough to put him over the top in Florida.

Full results here.
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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 3, 2008 at 4:39 AM

    Well, Florida and Ohio are gonna be tight as always, gonna be exciting :>.

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  2. UnknownNovember 3, 2008 at 4:39 AM

    I expect something similar in GA. Lets hope for a monsoon covering NC, GA, and FL on Tuesday.

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  3. andgardenNovember 3, 2008 at 4:40 AM

    The calculus for weeks has been that if Obama can win hispanics in Florida convincingly, he'll win the state.

    You guys say he is doing so. That's either because McCain's Cuban support has collapsed, or because Obama has expanded the hispanic electorate. Or you're just wrong.

    We shall see, but I am encouraged by this.

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  4. UnknownNovember 3, 2008 at 4:40 AM

    Well, better than Obama NOT leading.

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  5. AnonymousNovember 3, 2008 at 4:42 AM

    I think than a good margin of republicans will not show up on election day because they are desperate with the polls and the majority think than Obama will win.

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  6. AnonymousNovember 3, 2008 at 4:44 AM

    Actually an equally relevant question is whether Obama's GOTV can get first time voters to the polls on Tuesday in large numbers. If so, then this will significantly dilute the election day advantage PPP states McCain has (which of course raises the question whether McCain has the GOTV to get thse people to the polls and there is little evidence of that).

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  7. AnonymousNovember 3, 2008 at 4:44 AM

    Excellent point, for once it's going to be marginal Republicans who don't show up to vote cause there just ain't no point...

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  8. UnknownNovember 3, 2008 at 6:56 AM

    Republicans ALWAYS turn out. If Obama wants to win Pennsylvania, he better pray to God blacks and college students wait in line 1-2 hours since they don't have early voting.

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