How Obama won North Carolina

The biggest reason Barack Obama won North Carolina is obvious and fits the conventional wisdom: he racked up huge leads in the state's urban counties:

County	2004	2008	Shift
Buncombe	Bush +1k	Obama +17k	D +18k
Cumberland	Bush +3k	Obama +22k	D +25k
Durham	Kerry +40k	Obama +70k	D +30k
Forsyth	Bush +12k	Obama +17k	D +29k
Guilford	Kerry +2k	Obama +44k	D +42k
Mecklenburg	Kerry +11k	Obama +99k	D +88k
Wake	Bush +7k	Obama +64k	D+ 71k
Total	Kerry +30k	Obama +333k	D+303k

Shifts in the state's seven most populous counties composed 303,000 of the 436,000 votes Obama needed to make up relative to John Kerry's performance in the state. He did that not just by turning out a lot of new black voters, but also by significantly improving Democratic performance in the fast growing areas of suburbia on the outer edges of our largest counties. A lot of folks in those places, particularly independents, shifted from being Bush voters four years ago to now supporting Obama.

But the urban counties tell only part of the story. Obama won a narrow victory in Jackson County, deep in the heart of the Mountains, where George W. Bush won in 2004. He sure as heck didn't do that by bringing out the black vote in a county that's less than 2% African American.

He made significant in roads in eastern North Carolina, taking places likes Wilson, Pitt, and even tiny Hyde County that were all previously red. He won in those places not just by bringing out black voters who stayed home last time, but also by winning over a lot more white registered Democrats who often cross over in Presidential elections but voted on the economy over guns and gays this time around. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning 84% of the Democratic vote. This year Obama took 90%, and won 80% of white Democrats.

Even in places where he still got trounced Obama did a lot of loss cutting. For instance McCain won deep red Gaston County by 25 points. But George W. Bush won it by 36. Similar numbers hold true for Johnston County.

The bottom line is that Obama didn't win North Carolina by doing better than John Kerry with any one group or in any one place. He made significant gains across the board- urban, suburban, rural. He turned out a lot of new black voters but he also did much better with white voters than Kerry did, even in some pretty unexpected places.

Does his victory mean a permanent realignment in North Carolina politics? Yes and no. He could not have won without a strong performance with voters who might usually vote Republican but were disgusted with the way the country has been run over the last eight years and wanted a change. If prosperity returns, or the Democrats nominate northeastern liberals, those folks will be right back in the GOP column. At the same time there is no doubt that in migration to the state is fueling, if not a blue trend, at least a purple one. And once all these newly registered black voters have turned out once, they're more likely to do it again. I think it will be a very long time before a Presidential candidate of either party is able to win by double digits in the state. With this election North Carolina has entered the top tier of swing states.