Palin in 2012?

A lot of buzz about Sarah Palin running for President next time around this week. I got interviewed about it for this story and it got me to thinking about it more.

For the Republicans to win next time I don't think inspiring the base is going to be enough. They're going to have to win over the independent voters, particularly in suburbia, who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 but then supported Barack Obama this time.

The problem is that she may well have been part of the problem John McCain had with those voters. Here's her favorability in some key swing states with suburban independents:

State	Palin Favorability
Colorado	32/54
Florida	31/54
North Carolina	42/50
Ohio	34/50
Virginia	32/47

Her consistent unpopularity within that demographic across this quintet of relatively different states is striking. I'm sure the Republican base was very excited about Barry Goldwater too, and nominating Sarah Palin could generate a 1964-esque electoral map.