The poll we released yesterday showed that only 18% of New Jersey voters were more likely to vote for Jon Corzine because of Barack Obama campaigning for him, while 32% said they were less likely to do so.
On the surface that may seem like Obama's potential positive impact is limited. But our poll also found that Corzine was lagging with blacks and Hispanics, two groups Obama continues to be very popular with both in the state and nationally.
So a more pertinent way to look at Obama's impact may be to consider his impact on minority swing voters- those either undecided or open to changing their minds between now and the election.
Those folks make up about 10% of the electorate, and right now support Corzine only 34-28. At the same time they approve of Obama's job performance by a 73/12 margin and 33% of them say his help makes them more inclined to support Corzine with just 4% saying it makes them less likely to do so.
Obama's not coming to New Jersey to win over conservative Republicans- he's coming to both win over these folks and increase the quantity of them who head out to the polls. And it appears Corzine may be able to get at least some traction with these folks by playing the Obama card- although we'll have to see come October whether the President's popular enough that's something Corzine wants to splash on tv or target more specifically with direct mail.
Why do pollsters put "more/less likely to vote" questions in their poll?
ReplyDeleteIf someone would ALMOST NEVER vote for Corzine, but Obama's support makes him now REALLY NEVER going to vote for Corzine, that makes him "less likely", but what's the point?
The number really only matters among the undecided voters.
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