The 2010 Senate Picture and Black Turnout

David Weigel got me thinking this week about next year's Senate races and where black turnout returning to normal would have the biggest impact- here's his story.

I think probably the worst case scenario for Democrats is that the black vote as a proportion of the electorate would go down to 80% of a state's black population. For instance in North Carolina with a 22% black population you could go down to their being 17-18% of the electorate.

Generally speaking a one point drop in the black share of the electorate equates to a one point gain in the margin for the Republican candidate.

This table shows the 'drop' for Democrats in key Senate races for next year, assuming that in 2008 whites and blacks voted in proportion to their representation in the population and that next year really turned out to be worst case scenario on black turnout:

State	Black Population	Impact of Low Black Turnout
Louisiana	32	6.4%
North Carolina	22	4.4%
Delaware	20	4%
Arkansas	16	3.2%
Illinois	15	3%
Ohio	12	2.4%
Missouri	12	2.4%
Pennsylvania	11	2.2%
Connecticut	10	2%
Kentucky	8	1.6%
Colorado	4	.8%
New Hampshire	1	.2%

So is decreased black turnout going to be a huge issue for Democrats in the Senate races next year? Probably not. It will make it harder to pick up the seats of the two most vulnerable Republican incumbents, although it should be noted that the last time there was a Republican Senator on the ballot in an off year election in North Carolina he lost to some political neophyte named John Edwards.

The number in Arkansas does point to the potential for Blanche Lincoln's race to be more competitive than is currently the conventional wisdom, if Republicans ever get their act together on candidate recruitment.

Beyond that it could make the difference in races decided by less than three points. But those are rare, and the races that fall into that territory are the ones where Barack Obama will be most frequently deployed in an effort to ensure that black turnout doesn't fall to 80% of their representation in a state's population.

I think we're paying a lot of attention to this issue right now because Virginia does have a large black population and Creigh Deeds' poor poll numbers are partially a reflection of reduced interest in the election among those voters, but these figures are a reminder that most states don't have nearly as many black voters. It's certainly an issue Democrats have to deal with next year but it's far from a deal breaker.