Previewing Tomorrow's Polls

Sorry for being short on blogging today, been pretty busy getting ready for tomorrow's releases.

Here are some facts about the Virginia numbers:

-Where a month ago we were looking at a McCain +11 electorate we are now looking at a McCain +4 electorate. There's certainly still a way to go in closing the enthusiasm gap since Barack Obama won the state by six points a year ago but that's progress for Creigh Deeds.

-Bob McDonnell still leads Deeds by a lot among independents, 60-29.

-While McDonnell is winning 93% of the vote from people who say they voted for Jerry Kilgore in 2005, Deeds is only getting 76% from folks who claim to have voted for Tim Kaine.

We'll also have our national Congressional poll:

-Independents give both Democrats and Republicans a 25% approval rating, but they must dislike the Democrats more because the GOP has a 40-31 lead on the generic ballot with them.

-Party ID among conservatives is seeing a strong Republican trend over the course of this year- in April we found 58% identifying with the GOP and 21% with Democrats, those numbers are now 67% and 14%.

-Among voters who don't like Congressional Democrats or Congressional Republicans, the GOP has a 50-14 lead on the generic ballot- that's one positive of being out of power I suppose!

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