Looking closer at Obama in New Jersey

In July we found Barack Obama's approval rating at 53% in New Jersey. Now we have it down at 45%. That means it's time to answer one of our favorite questions: who'd he lose?

The main answer in New Jersey is moderates, regardless of their party affiliations. He went from 78% to 69% with moderate Democrats, 29% to 20% with moderate Republicans, and most damaging 59% to 39% with moderate independents.

The other group he saw a significant drop with was conservative independents, from 20% to 9%.

When we compared his national numbers from April to August we did not find any drop yet among moderate Democrats or moderate Republicans so it will be interesting next week on our forthcoming national poll to see if that's a broader trend or just likely Gubernatorial voters in New Jersey.

One group Obama continues to have no trouble with is liberal Democrats: his approval with them shot from 94% to 98%.

The full data:

Obama Approval in NJ	July	September
Liberal Democrats	94	98
Moderate Democrats	78	69
Conservative Democrats	57	63
Moderate Independents	59	39
Moderate Republicans	29	20
Conservative Independents	20	9
Conservative Republicans	7	4