The Wilder Effect

Did Doug Wilder do Creigh Deeds a favor by not endorsing him?

23% of Virginia voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Wilder, while only 8% say that the former Governor's support would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. 69% say Wilder's opinions don't affect them either way.

Among the respondents who said that a Wilder endorsement would have a positive influence on their vote, 76% are already supporting Deeds. The remaining 24% gives very poor marks to Barack Obama, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Jim Webb and also overwhelmingly supports Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli. In other words, they don't seem likely to vote for a Democratic candidate anyway and they may well be Republicans expressing positive feelings toward Wilder precisely because he didn't endorse Deeds.

Basically the Wilder endorsement or lack thereof is something the chattering class is considerably more interested in than real voters. This is having no impact on the race. Those who really care what Wilder thinks are pretty much all hardcore Democratic voters anyway who aren't going to stray or stay at home due to his non endorsement.

Overall 36% of Virginians have a favorable opinion of Wilder with 33% viewing him unfavorably and 30% with no opinion, a reflection of the 16 years that have passed since he last held statewide office.

Deeds is actually more popular with black voters in the state than Wilder. His favorability spread with them is 73/8 to Wilder's 67/19. And Wilder isn't in the same ballpark with Barack Obama's 88/12.

Full results here