GOP keeping up advantage with independents

Earlier this month Republicans won the contests for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia, thanks in large part to overwhelming margins of victory among independents.

There's no indication from the polling we've done in the four weeks since the election that the trend will change in 2010. In five out of six races we've looked at in Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin the likely Republican nominee continues to hold a double digit lead with independents:

Office	Republican Margin w/Independents
Wisconsin Governor	Scott Walker up 43-28 vs. Tom Barrett
North Carolina Senate	Richard Burr up 51-30 vs. Generic Dem
Arkansas-2	Tim Griffin up 49-34 vs. Vic Snyder
Missouri Senate	Roy Blunt up 44-32 vs. Robin Carnahan
Arkansas Senate	Gilbert Baker up 47-25 vs. Blanche Lincoln

The one exception is the Wisconsin Senate race where Russ Feingold leads with independents against all three of the Republicans we tested against him.

Of course it's always worth keeping in mind with independents that they have a structural lean toward the GOP, particularly with Republican id levels hitting new lows in some polls, because far more of them are conservatives than liberals:

State	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
Arkansas	3	60	37
Missouri	9	50	40
North Carolina	11	49	41
Wisconsin	8	58	34

That said, there's no doubt it will be a brutal year for Democrats if they can't perform better with independent voters, and in the month following losses in New Jersey and Virginia there's no indication they're getting it turned around.