Sunday, November 1, 2009

More NY-23 mess

Man NY-23 is really a mess.

Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.

-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava's a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.

-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don't listen to the show.

I am going to swap in a third version of our horse race question for remaining interviews today noting that Scozzafava has suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. The Hoffman lead is wide enough that I feel comfortable releasing numbers later this evening although there will certainly be a lot of caveats- and we will certainly release tabs by when people were interviewed.
at

23 comments:

  1. DavidNovember 1, 2009 at 4:16 PM

    Thanks for letting us know all the details.

    Polling is very accurate these days as long as people understand the factors and the poll is weighted correctly.

    We appreciate it.

    ReplyDelete
  2. DavidNYCNovember 1, 2009 at 4:19 PM

    How do you account for the fact that your numbers are so different from Siena's and R2K's? Just a monstrous Dede collapse that all went to Hoffman in the very brief time since those two outfits finished their calls?

    ReplyDelete
  3. AuntPittypatNovember 1, 2009 at 4:32 PM

    I sure feel for you, Tom. Hang in there!

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownNovember 1, 2009 at 5:03 PM

    So far your partial polling hasn't had any effect on Intrade. Hoffman is down to 43.5 right now.

    We'll see if Dede's endorsement has any impact. It shouldn't, but it appears Hoffman may not have responded very well.

    ReplyDelete
  5. VenuNovember 1, 2009 at 5:09 PM

    Is Dede's dropping out altering your weighting significantly? The electorate changes when Dede's former supporters decide not to go to the polls.

    ReplyDelete
  6. FrankNovember 1, 2009 at 5:39 PM

    re: DavidNYC's comment - what does account for this change. It seems odd that Owens +1 in two separate polls would go to Hoffman +16 without some huge extraneous event, even before Scozzafava withdrew.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousNovember 1, 2009 at 5:41 PM

    I think the difference in methodology is affecting the results. Live interview polls show it close, the IVR poll show Hoffman way up.

    I don't think this is a good district to rely on the IVR method, Cook's IVR polls of NY-20 in 2006 were not good, they showed Gillibrand up 11-13 points before the Sweeney domestic violence incident. So Siena and R2K may be more on target.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousNovember 1, 2009 at 5:56 PM

    "so different from Siena's and R2K's"

    Do they really look different than expected if the trends are the same (extending Hoffman's upward trends of the previous Siena polls) ?

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousNovember 1, 2009 at 6:28 PM

    It appears that Tom and Rick Shaftan are in agreement about the NY-23 race:

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/conservative-pollster-puts-hoffman-ahead-in-ny-23.php

    "Neighborhood Research head Rick Shaftan told TPM: "She's [Scozzafava] going to end up in single digits and Hoffman is going to top 50%."

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousNovember 1, 2009 at 7:04 PM

    Anon. there hasn't been enough time between polls for trends to account for the difference. Siena concluded the day before or same day PPP began. That isn't enough time for that much of a shift.

    How come my name keeps coming up as a long cumbersome number? Weird!

    ReplyDelete
  11. UnknownNovember 1, 2009 at 7:55 PM

    I'm with Anonymous -- I think these numbers just show an extension of the trend that was already clearly occurring.

    Of course, these are unweighted numbers. That might be worth mentioning again.

    For what its worth, I don't think Scozza's endorsement will do anything other than solidify the conservative majority to support Hoffman; after all, she just proved she's a liberal which is what she's spent the last month trying to say she isn't.

    ReplyDelete
  12. livfreeordiNovember 1, 2009 at 8:38 PM

    Want to know why Hoffman is picking up a lot of Dede's voters?

    I also posted this on my local paper website-- the Watertown Daily Times --

    All Scozzafava's endorsement of the Democrat proves..to my chagrin and embarrassment...

    ..is that when Hoffman and his supporters called her a RINO..they were right all along.

    I'm sure that will give many of my fellow moderate loyal Republicans... who also supported Scozzafava.. something to think about on election day.

    You fooled me once Dede..not again

    ReplyDelete
  13. Huskers-For-PalinNovember 1, 2009 at 9:00 PM

    The biggest losers...the RNC establishment (Steele, Newt).


    NEWT...WHAT WERE YOU THINKING!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ryan MauroNovember 1, 2009 at 10:20 PM

    Interesting. I bet Hoffman by 5.

    ReplyDelete
  15. LonewackoDotComNovember 1, 2009 at 10:48 PM

    Here's a good question for PPP to ask: "Would you continue to support Doug Hoffman knowing that his immigration position appears to be somewhat similar to that of George W. Bush's?"

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousNovember 1, 2009 at 11:27 PM

    Yesterday when chubby Dede dropped out she was a proud Republican. Today she receives a call from the White House and then endorses a lib. This is an amateur and a vote that could not be counted on. She will never be heard from again. My only question is, why did it take so long.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousNovember 1, 2009 at 11:37 PM

    How about

    "Would you continue to support Doug Hoffman knowing that his immigration position appears to be somewhat similar to that of George W. Bush, John McCain, and Ted Kennedy?"

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousNovember 2, 2009 at 12:53 AM

    "So far your partial polling hasn't had any effect on Intrade. Hoffman is down to 43.5 right now."

    Hoffman last traded at 67, and the figure hasn't changed much today, so I'm pretty sure you're pulling that figure out of your a$$.

    ReplyDelete
  19. chgNovember 2, 2009 at 1:17 AM

    Lonewacko, your proposed question is about as bad as it gets. You should apply for a position with the NYT.

    If you truly care to know the electorate's opinion on any stated position, 'How do you feel about Hoffman's stated position X?', where X is a brief, neutral summary of the position is the only way for any responsible pollster to go.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Reaganite RepublicanNovember 2, 2009 at 3:57 AM

    Sour grapes? a RINO skinned? Or did Joey Plugs open up the ol' company checkbook and make a Specter-style bargain for Scozzafava, in order to save the Dear Leader from a humiliation in this high profile contest?

    All I know is something stinks like trash-truck juice here...

    ReplyDelete
  21. Moremony servicesNovember 2, 2009 at 7:56 AM

    hello ,Yesterday when chubby Dede dropped out she was a proud Republican. Today she receives a call from the White House and then endorses a lib. This is an amateur and a vote that could not be counted on. She will never be heard from again. My only question is, why did it take so long.



    attorney

    Moremony

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousNovember 2, 2009 at 5:37 PM

    "So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough."

    Not nearly enough for what? Are you a polling group or a political one?

    ReplyDelete
  23. AnonymousNovember 4, 2009 at 6:53 AM

    Better stick to the day job. You're off by 19% in your poll.

    ReplyDelete